Hybrid LCA Models

1. Hybrid LCA Models

2. Admin Issues • Next 2 weeks: • Heather, me, others out of town • 3 guest lectures (hybrid methods and uncertainty) • Last week of class - choice: • Group presentations (if so, how/when) • Or other course content • Eg impact assessment, others

3. Advantages of Conventional LCA vs. EIO-LCA

4. Disadvantages of Conventional LCA vs. EIO-LCA

5. Models of LCA • “Conventional” LCA, developed by SETAC and EPA, based on process models • Economic input-output analysis-based LCA (EIO-LCA), developed by Carnegie Mellon’s Green Design Initiative and Others • Hybrid models: • Using eiolca model to guide boundary and scope of process models. • Disaggregating or augmenting io model. • Using eiolca for some processes, products and supply chain elements (where sector aggregation is not a major issue), with process models for remainder. • There are more/other ways, including more “rules” but we save those for the Advanced LCA course (Mini 4).

6. Utility of Two LCA Approaches

7. Goals of Hybrid LCA Models • Incorporate the advantages of the two models, reduce disadvantages • Include detailed, process-level data, as well as the economy-wide effects • Provide environmental and economic information about every major product and process in the economy • Quantify the widest range of environmental data • Two obvious high level alternatives for hybrid models

8. commodity commodity C11 Cn C1 Cn system boundary Integration of EIO-LCA Data into Conventional LCA EIO-LCA Process models

9. process results commodity product commodity Cj Cj1 Cj2 Integration of Conventional LCA Data into EIO-LCA EIO-LCA

10. User Adjustments • Many adjustments possible due to known aggregation or emissions problems • Hybrid models including EIO and process models. • Parameter adjustments to reflect non-linearities. • Disaggregating individual EIO sectors. • Bayesian methods applicable here – adjusting estimates based on expectations. • Multiple approaches: EIO-LCA and Conventional LCA.

11. In-Class Exercise: Hybrid LCA of Electricity Generation • Make a slightly improved (hybrid) LCA model for PA electricity using: • National EIO-LCA results ($1M of power gen results, handed out) • National and PA Grid Mixes:

12. Things to Think About • Price assumption (how much per kWh?) • Adjustments needed • Assumptions needed • IF you wanted more data, what would it be? (But only use what is above) • Estimate power plant-only and supply chain wide CO2 emissions / kWh

13. Post-Exercise • This was a very simple (but real) hybrid exercise. • Might think about what would be needed to integrate NREL LCI data on energy sectors with EIO-LCA power gen sector

14. Economic and Environmental Implications of Online Retailing and Centralized Stock Keeping in the United States

15. E-Commerce Retail Quarterly Volume ($B)

16. Traditional Retail Logistics System • Factory to warehouse to warehouse to retailer. • Last leg of trip by private vehicle

17. Single Facility Sales • LL Bean, Lands End - catalogue sales • Amazon (original), MusicOutpost - web based sales from a single facility

19. How to Model E-Commerce for LCA?

20. Book Publishing Case Study • Traditional System: • logistics: printer > warehouse > warehouse > retailer > home, all by truck/car • unsold returns - roughly 35% for bestsellers • E-commerce System: • logistics: printer > warehouse > distribution center >home, by air and truck. • No unsold returns

21. Traditional: truck transport (1000 mi)* Warehousing* production of returns* reverse travel of returns* private automobile transport E-Commerce air transport (500 mi)* truck transport (500 mi)* Warehousing* Comparative Analysis: * is EIOLCA Sector Use

22. Comparative Costs ($ 1000s for $ 1 M or 290,000 books)

23. Why are E-Commerce Costs Lower? • Higher transportation costs for e-commerce, but: • Returns of unsold copies • Lower retail transactions costs • Lower (private) automobile cost • Result is cost advantage for e-Commerce

25. Summary Environmental Impacts(per-book basis)

26. Sensitivity Analysis • ‘Traditional’ becomes better if: • Local distance to bookstore < 3 miles • Air transport of books > 700 miles • Orders not shipped together • Ecommerce better if: • Switch from Air transport • Multiple origin sites • Greater density of sales.

27. Harry Potter Case • 250,000 books shipped on release date by Amazon.com • 9,000 trucks and 100 airplanes • 2.5 lb. book, 0.7 lb. packaging (3.2 lbs.) • Bookstores got 10 per box • Shopping trips for books avg. 11 miles • Marginal effects

28. This is Research….

29. Some Analysis Issues • What are E-commerce future scenarios? • What will happen with local manufacturing technology? • What will be impact of new business models for controlling inventory (warehousing), manufacturing and shipping. • What is appropriate time scale of analysis?

30. Analysis Boundary Issues (cont.) • Buildings - decrease in retail or warehouse space? • Shopping - will individuals substitute other travel for reduced shopping travel? • Computers - what fraction of personal computer burdens should be allocated to E-commerce?

31. Will E-commerce Improve or Degrade the Environment? • Net Effect - hypothesis: depends upon product and processes and upon the analysis boundary. • Appropriate Public Policy - • Don’t ignore service industries in environmental policy. • Consider life cycle costs including social costs. • Take advantage of cost savings to create environmental benefits

32. Quick tutorial - EIO-LCA Spreadsheet Models