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Mr Predrag Pajic, M.Sc.geol. Lazar Andjelic , M.Sc.civil eng.

OHRID, Republic of Macedonia 28 May, 2 June 2012. Institute for water management “ Jaroslav Cerni ”, Belgrade, Serbia.

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Mr Predrag Pajic, M.Sc.geol. Lazar Andjelic , M.Sc.civil eng.

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  1. OHRID, Republicof Macedonia 28 May, 2 June 2012 Institute for water management “JaroslavCerni”, Belgrade, Serbia Assessment of vulnerability and damages caused to the agricultural production on the area of VelikoSelo by the highlevel of groundwater on account of the performance of HPP  “Djerdap I” Mr Predrag Pajic, M.Sc.geol. Lazar Andjelic, M.Sc.civil eng. Uros Urosevic, M.Sc.geol. Institute for water management “Jaroslav Cerni”, Belgrade, Serbia

  2. INTRODUCTION OHRID, Republicof Macedonia 28 May, 2 June 2012 Institute for water management “JaroslavCerni”, Belgrade, Serbia • VELIKOSELSKI RIT (“marsh”) IS ALLUVIAL PLAIN ON THE RIGHT BANK OF DANUBE • TOTAL SURFACE IS ABOUT 7.5 km2 • VELIKOSELSKI RIT IS NOT PROTECTED BY ANY DRAINAGE SYSTEM FROM THE DANUBE HIGH WATER LEVELS BEFORE CONSTRUCTION OF HPP “DJERDAP 1” (NATURAL REGIME) ONLY LOWEST PARTS OF VELIKOSELSKI RIT AREA WERE AFFECTED BY HIGH GROUNDWATER LEVELS UNDER DANUBE HIGH WATER LEVELS WHOLE AREA OFVELIKOSELSKI RIT WAS FLOODED UNDER PRESENT CONDITION OF HPP “DJERDAP 1” EXPLOATATION, DURING THE YEAR, ABOUT 70% OF OF THE TOTAL AREA IS AFFECTED BY HIGH GROUNDWATER LEVELS

  3. INTRODUCTION OHRID, Republicof Macedonia 28 May, 2 June 2012 Institute for water management “JaroslavCerni”, Belgrade, Serbia AFTER CONSTRUCTION OF HPP “DJERDAP 1” THE DANUBE WATER LEVELS, AND SO GROUNDWATER LEVELS, WAS RAISED DURATION OF VULNERABALITY OF VELIKOSELSKI RIT WAS EXTENDED EXTENSION OF THE VULNERABALITY PERIOD DURATION REFLECTS TO DEVASTATION OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO THE LOCAL POPULATION THE AIM OF THIS RESEARCH IS: TO PROPOSE A SPECIFIC GUIDANCE FOR THE APPROPRIATE RISK ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURAL AREAS IN THE DANUBE ALLUVIA (UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HPP "DJERDAP I") BY THE ANALYSIS OF CAUSED DAMAGES, USING THE AREA OF VELIKOSELSKI RIT AS AN EXAMPLE TO PERCIEVE THE IMPORANCE OF PROTECTION OF DANUBE ALLUVIA AGRICULTURAL AREA FROM UNFAVORABLE GROUNDWATER REGIME, CAUSED BY HPP “DJERDAP 1”

  4. GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS AND CONDITIONS IN RESEARCHED AREA OHRID, Republicof Macedonia 28 May, 2 June 2012 Institute for water management “JaroslavCerni”, Belgrade, Serbia • PREVIOUS STUDIES • SOIL CHARACTERISTICS • HYDROGRAPHIC AND HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS ELEVATION RANGES ARE: 2,5 m - AT LOW DANUBE WATER LEVELS (DURATION OF 95%), 1,4 m - AT INTERMEDIATE DANUBE WATER LEVELS (DURATION OF 50%), > 0,3 m - AT HIGH DANUBE WATER LEVELS (DURATION OF 10% OR LESS)

  5. OHRID, Republicof Macedonia 28 May, 2 June 2012 Institute for water management “JaroslavCerni”, Belgrade, Serbia GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS AND CONDITIONS IN RESEARCHED AREA • Geological and Hydrogeological characteristics • groundwater regime

  6. METHODS OHRID, Republicof Macedonia 28 May- 2 June 2012 Institute for water management “JaroslavCerni”, Belgrade, Serbia • Hydrodynamic analysis • hydrodynamic model of groundwater flow • 2D model (the calculation profiles perpendicular to danube): • for natural and slowed (regime “69.5 and more”) water levels • in non-stationary conditions- period 1985 – 2009 (time step of 1 (one) day)

  7. METHODS OHRID, Republicof Macedonia 28 May, 2 June 2012 Institute for water management “JaroslavCerni”, Belgrade, Serbia • Agro-economic analysis • Agroeconomic analysis is based on the results of the conducted hydrodynamic calculations of the groundwater regime for natural and observed regime • For the agroeconomic analysis, a selection of some dominantly representative vegetable crop species (5 dominant group of vegetables) was made • approx. 0.5 m from the reference terrain level was adopted as a criterion for the soil “overmoisture” by groundwater • The results of the quantitative consideration of the Danube slowdown impact on damage in agricultural production are shown as a corresponding percentage of participation of HPP ''Djerdap I'' in total damages, which is divided into several classes (0, 25, 50, 75, 100 %)

  8. RESULTS OF HYDRODYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF GROUNDWATER REGIME FOR VARIOUS HPP “DJERDAP I” EXPLOATATION OHRID, Republicof Macedonia 28 May, 2 June 2012 Institute for water management “JaroslavCerni”, Belgrade, Serbia • Results of hydrodynamic analysis are shown as: • Groundwater levels in the area along the calculation profile sections • Groundwater level duration curves for each section of calculation profiles • groundwater lines along the calculation profile of typical duration of 1 %, 10 % and 50 % • The average groundwater levels in monitored (slow) Danube regime were higher by 0.8 - 1.3 m from the average groundwater levels,for the “natural”-unslowed Danube regime • the corresponding maximum groundwater levels are at the similar elevations

  9. RESULTS OF HYDRODYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF GROUNDWATER REGIME FOR VARIOUS HPP “DJERDAP I” EXPLOATATION OHRID, Republicof Macedonia 28 May, 2 June 2012 Institute for water management “JaroslavCerni”, Belgrade, Serbia • in accordance with the defined position and elevation, the period of vulnerability of the area with high groundwater levels in “monitored” (slow) and the “natural” regime of the Danube, is determined • EXAMPLE: Terrain vulnerability (elevation 71.0-71.5m) in the first zone, near the Danube

  10. RESULTS OF agro-econoMIC ANALYSIS OF GROUNDWATER REGIME FOR VARIOUS HPP “DJERDAP I” EXPLOATATION OHRID, Republicof Macedonia 28 May, 2 June 2012 Institute for water management “JaroslavCerni”, Belgrade, Serbia • The total value of production of a specific culture is determined by the real volume of production under optimal conditions and prices of agricultural products for each year backward • CALCULATION: Total value of production = Plot of parcel  Value of production (din) (m2) (din/m2) Value of production = Yield  Price of culture (din/m2) (kg/m2) (din/kg)

  11. VALIDITY ANALYSIS OF PROTECTION FROM EXTERNAL, ATMOSPHERIC AND GROUNDWATER OF VELIKOSELSKI RIT AREA OHRID, Republicof Macedonia 28 May, 2 June 2012 Institute for water management “JaroslavCerni”, Belgrade, Serbia • Swiching on HPP “Djerdap 1" higher slowdown regimes the problem of protection of the area became very actual • One of the possible solutions for protection of the area is to install a drainage system consisting of a defensive embankments for protection from the external water or drainage channels with self-outflow wells, and pumping station, to protect against internal (groundwater, rainwater and seepage) waters. • Effects of engineered drainage system are simulated on matemathical model

  12. TECHNO-ECONIMIC VALIDITY ANALYSIS OF PROTECTION OF VELIKOSELSKI RIT AREA OHRID, Republicof Macedonia 28 May, 2 June 2012 Institute for water management “JaroslavCerni”, Belgrade, Serbia • CONSIDERING THE BASIC TECHNICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE PROTECTION SYSTEMS A PRELIMINARY COST VALUE WAS ESTIMATED ON APPROXIMATELY 4,42 MILLION EUROS • ONLY FOR THE CADASTAL MINICIPALITY OF VELIKO SELO, ​​FOR ABOUT 4.0 km2 (WITHOUT 2.3 km2 AT THE C.M. VINCA, WITH NO INPUT DATA), FOR ONLY LAST 9 YEARS OF THE CALCULATING PERIOD, THE AVERAGE LOSS IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION OF VEGETABLE CROPS, CAUSED BY THE OPERATION OF HPP "DJERDAP 1", WOULD BE ABOUT 2.4 MILLION EUROS • PROTECTION OF AREA IS QUITE REASONABLE AND COST-EFFECTIVE AND THE TOTAL INVESTMENT WOULD BE PAID OFF IN 10-15 YEARS

  13. CONCLUSION OHRID, Republicof Macedonia 28 May, 2 June 2012 Institute for water management “JaroslavCerni”, Belgrade, Serbia • A DETAILED HYDRODYNAMIC ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT,AFTER CONSTRUCTION OF HPP “DJERDAP 1” GROUNDWATER LEVELSWAS RAISED AND DURATION OF VULNERABALITY OF VELIKOSELSKI RIT WAS EXTENDED • THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE DANUBE SLOWDOWN, LED TO FURTHER DEVASTATION OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND CAUSED DAMAGE TO THE LOCAL POPULATION • A DETAILED AGRO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEFINED THE CAUSE, AND THEN THE EVALUATION OF THE DAMAGE TO AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION • A DETAILED TECHNOECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEFINED THAT THE PROTECTION OF AREA IS QUITE REASONABLE AND COST-EFFECTIVE AND THAT THE TOTAL INVESTMENT WOULD BE PAID OFF IN 10-15 YEARS

  14. CONCLUSION OHRID, Republicof Macedonia 28 May, 2 June 2012 Institute for water management “JaroslavCerni”, Belgrade, Serbia THE AIM OF THIS RESEARCH IS: • TO PROPOSE A SPECIFIC GUIDANCE FOR THE APPROPRIATE RISK ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURAL AREAS IN THE DANUBE ALLUVIA (UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HPP "DJERDAP I") BY THE ANALYSIS OF CAUSED DAMAGES, USING THE AREA OF VELIKOSELSKI RIT AS AN EXAMPLE • TO PERCIEVE THE IMPORANCE OF PROTECTION OF DANUBE ALLUVIA AGRICULTURAL AREA FROM UNFAVORABLE GROUNDWATER REGIME, CAUSED BY HPP “DJERDAP 1”

  15. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! OHRID, Republicof Macedonia 28 May, 2 June 2012 Institute for water management “JaroslavCerni”, Belgrade, Serbia

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