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Earthquake Emergency Response

Earthquake Emergency Response. LT Byron Lee LT K. Beth Jasper LT Greg Bauer. Problem Statement. Analyze Monterey County’s transportation network in the event of a 7.9 magnitude earthquake or greater along the San Andreas fault, with emphasis on transporting displaced personnel to shelters

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Earthquake Emergency Response

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  1. Earthquake Emergency Response LT Byron Lee LT K. Beth Jasper LT Greg Bauer

  2. Problem Statement • Analyze Monterey County’s transportation network in the event of a 7.9 magnitude earthquake or greater along the San Andreas fault, with emphasis on transporting displaced personnel to shelters • What arethe optimal routes to get people to shelters in the event of numerous road closures? • How many road closures need to exist before it isn’t possible to get people to shelters?

  3. Monterey County Fault Lines

  4. Mathematically Modeling the Real World • Measures of Effectiveness for our network: • 11,500 people anticipated to need shelter receive it. • Those that are denied shelter, are still provided relief services • Framework behind our model: • In the event of an earthquake, is there sufficient redundancy in the main road network to accomplish the evacuation plan set out by Bay Area Urban Area Security (BAUAS) Initiative? • Based on the data available, can we answer specific questions concerning the performance of the BAUAS plan: • Do those in need receive the care as planned? • What major roads are critical to the successful completion of the plan?

  5. Operator’s Problem • Decisions the Operator makes when operating in the network • Interdictions (i.e. road outages) were based on data provided by the United States Geological Society (USGS) • e.g. Shake maps and liquefaction data • As an operator on the network, which path would be optimal (i.e. shortest path) from the evacuation pick-up sites to a shelter that has availability; with and without various levels of interdiction

  6. EVAC 1 EVAC 2 Generalized Shelter Node in the vicinity of EVAC sites -n EVAC 3 Shelter No Service Service n Start End EVAC 4 Generalized Shelter Node more distant from EVAC sites EVAC 5 Shelter No Service Service EVAC 6 Where: dij = distance on arc cij = penalty for no service fij = penalty for service w/ no shelter Uij = upper capacity of shelter (Service / Sheltering) Cij > fij (0, %PEVACi, ) (dij, 0, ) EVAC 7 (dij, 0, ) (cij, 0, ) (fij, 0, ) (0, 0, ) (0, 0, )

  7. Operators Resilience Curve

  8. Open Analysis Directions • Look at secondary quakes that could be triggered by a large earthquake on the San Andreas • Expand the model to include Handicapped accessibility facilities and bathrooms at facilities • Add precision to the model to use it to direct remote sensing collections • Adding fuel constraints to the min-cost model (min-cost constrained)

  9. Summary Conclusions • The bridges that had the highest probability of being damaged did not prevent the flow of personnel to shelters, however the cost did go up in terms of distance • The combined damage to buildings and bridges increased the cost in distance traveled and people not sheltered • Monterey County has ample shelter facilities to provide servicing and housing under this scenario

  10. Data: Min Cost Network Flow

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