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Explore the history and impact of TV commercials, from the first broadcast in 1941 to analyzing modern commercial trends on major networks like ABC, NBC, and CBS. Delve into statistical tests comparing food commercials, female-targeted ads, and channel preferences using crucial assumptions and visual data interpretation. Uncover insights into commercial biases, errors, and audience behavior towards advertisements on popular TV networks. Draw conclusions and ponder the project's applicability to the broader population, reflecting on the challenges and nuances of TV commercial analysis.
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Background • The first TV commercial was broadcasted on July 1, 1941 • It was on the New York station WNBT • The ad was ten seconds long and advertised a watchmaker • The cost of a commercial depends on the number of viewers • The cost of a 30 second ad during the 2010 Super bowl, one of the most watched programs, cost 2.6 millions dollars
Procedure • Watched TV commercials on different channels during different times and recorded their types and how many for each • Watched Food network and ABC to compare number of food commercials for each • We each watched one network (ABC, NBC, or CBS) and cited the types of commercials and their numbers • Collected all of the recorded female commercials for both daytime and primetime (on NBC) and compared
Assumptions for 1st Test State Check • 2 independent SRS • n₁p₁ ≥ 10 n₁ (1-p₁) ≥ 10 n₂p₂ ≥ 10 n₂(1-p₂) ≥ 10 3. pop. (1) ≥ 10n₁ pop. (2) ≥ 10n₂ • 2 independent SRS • 54(.037) ≥ 10 54(1-.037) ≥ 10 111(.27) ≥ 10 111(1-.27) ≥ 10 3. pop. (1) ≥ 10(54) pop. (2) ≥ 10(111) *Not all assumptions pass, but we will continue with the test.
Food Channel vs. ABC 2 proportion z-test Ho: P1 = P2 Ha: P1 > P2 z=3.6529 p(z > 3.6529) = 1.2967 x 10^-4 We reject Ho because our p-value < α=0.05. We have sufficient evidence that the proportion of food commercials on Food network is greater than the proportion of food commercials on ABC. P1= Food Channel P2= ABC
There were overall a greater number of commercials recorded on the Food network The Food network did, in fact, have a larger number of food commercials than ABC did We were surprised by how little food commercials there were when compared to the total number Visual Statistics, Analysis, and Conclusion (1st Test)
Assumptions for2nd Test State Check • 2 independent SRS • n₁p₁ ≥ 10 n₁ (1-p₁) ≥ 10 n₂p₂ ≥ 10 n₂(1-p₂) ≥ 10 3. pop. (1) ≥ 10n₁ pop. (2) ≥ 10n₂ • 2 independent SRS • 73(.068) ≥ 10 73(1-.068) ≥ 10 83(.096) ≥ 10 83(1-.096 ≥ 10 3. pop. (1) ≥ 10(73) pop. (2) ≥ 10(83) *Not all assumptions pass, but we will continue with the test.
Female-based commercials on NBC:Daytime vs. Primetime 2 proportion z-test Ho: P1 = P2 Ha: P1 < P2 z=-.6289 p(z < -.6289) = .2647 We fail to reject Ho because our p-value > α=0.05. We have sufficient evidence to say that there is an equal amount of female commercials during the daytime block and during the primetime block. P1= # of female commercials during daytime P2= # of female commercials during primetime
The bar graphs for the primetime and daytime were almost identical in ratings Although the primetime block had more commercials shown, the proportions between the no’s and the yes’s for both times was very similar Analysis and Conclusion (2nd Test)
SRS All expected counts > (or equal to) 5 Not SRS Not all counts > (or equal to) 5 Assumption for 3rd Test State Check *Not all assumptions pass, but we will continue with the test.
NBC, ABC, CBS Chi-square Test Ho: The channel and the type of commercial shown are independent Ha: The channel and the type of commercial shown are dependent = (6-9)² + (9-4.34)² + … = 30.259 9 4.34 P(χ ² > 30.259 / df = 12) = .0026 We reject Ho because our p-value < α=0.05. We have sufficient evidence to say that the channel and the type of commercial shown are dependent, therefore some channels specifically show more of one type of commercial than others.
Analysis and Conclusion (3rd Test) • According to the overall bar graph for the three networks, NBC had at least ten more insurance commercials than CBS and ABC • Another notable difference: CBS had virtually no female-based commercials shown during the allotted time • For the most part, the other and the other shows categories were fairly similar in all three
Bias and Error • We only watched certain shows, and they were not picked at random • The channels we watched were not picked at random(ABC, NBC and CBS) but they are the major networks • Differences in half-hour shows and hour shows could have an effect on the results • Another affect could be weekend vs. weekday • A show we watched for two hours had an effect on the results because it was a golfing tournament and ¾ of the commercials were focused on men
Application to Population and Personal Opinions • Our conclusion about this project was not as straightforward and accurate as it could have been. • Watching at the same exact times as the other members of our group could have made the results more accurate. • It also tended to get very boring watching daytime shows on the networks during the weekend. • We assumed that during the daytime there would be more female-based commercials, and it ended up being an equal amount between the blocks. • The population’s results may or may not be different because of different networks across the state and country.
Conclusion • All in all… • The Food Network does indeed have an increased number of food commercials over the average network (NBC) • Female-based commercials rate equally in the daytime and primetime blocks • And even though ABC, CBS, and NBC are all the top-dog networks and are similar in our minds, our study’s results prove that the channels show more of one type of commercial over other types.
