Knowledge Management for UEFA Champions League

1. Knowledge Management forUEFA Champions League By Harsha Gunnam Hetal Mehta Nargis Memon Manish Wadhwa

2. Individual Contributions Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction

3. Agenda Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction

4. Introduction Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction • UEFA - The governing body of football on the continent of Europe • Champions League – • Started in 1992 • Most Prestigious Trophy in the Sport • Current Champion: AC Milan • Format –

5. Research Objectives Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction

6. Literature Review Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction • Papahristodoulou, Christos, "Team Performance in UEFA Champions League 2005-06." Munich Personal RePEc Archive (2006) Unpublished, Paper #138 • Barros, Carlos Pestana, Leach, Stephanie, “Performance evaluation of the English Premier Football League with data envelopment analysis.” Applied Economics Vol. 38 No. 12 (2006): 1449-1458 • http://www.betinf.com/champ.htm • Sports Betting Information • http://www.betstudy.com/soccer-stats/c/europe/uefa-champions-league/ • Online Betting Guide • http://en.uclpredictor.uefa.com/ • Online Predictor Game

7. Research Design Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction Coefficient Analysis UEFA Data Source Head-to-Head Probability MySQL RankingAnalysis Data Extraction Array of Winners Top 3 Leagues Excel Home & Away Advantage Top 12 Teams

8. Data Sources Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction • UEFA Data Source • http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/ • Data collected over 6 seasons • 2002-2008 • Attributes -

9. Basic Findings Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction Coefficient Analysis

10. Coefficient Analysis Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction • Standard UEFA Calculations • Country Coefficient = Number of Points/Number of Teams • Calculation Accuracy: 100% • Team Coefficient = Number of Points + 33% of Country Coefficient • Calculation Accuracy: 100%

11. Basic Findings Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction Ranking Analysis

12. Predicted Ranking Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction • Accuracy: 100% • Years Considered: 2003-2008 • Country Ranking = Summation of 5 years of Country Coefficients • Team Ranking = Summation of 5 years of Team Coefficients

13. Ranking Analysis - Leagues Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction • Observations: • Spain, England and Italy: Top three leagues for the past six seasons • Romania: Rapid Improvement

14. Top Leagues & Teams Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction

15. Ranking Analysis - Teams Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction • Observations: • Consistent Team: FC Barcelona • Rapid Improvement: Chelsea

16. Interesting Findings Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction Probability Analysis

17. Head-to-Head Probability Analysis Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction • Technique: • Naive Bayes • Observations: • Strength: 6 Teams • Weakness: FC Barcelona

18. Head-to-Head Probability Testing Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction • Technique: • Comparison of the signs of the difference between the win probability and the lose probability • Matched signs – Correct Prediction • Different signs – Incorrect Prediction • Assumption • Difference of zero (win-loss) favors both ways • Accuracy: 80%

19. Interesting Findings Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction Home-Away Analysis

20. Home – Away Analysis Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction • Technique: • Mapped advantage on the basis of strength. • Strength level decided by the difference in goals scored • Very Strong – Win with a difference of 2 or more goals • Strong – Win with a difference of 1 goal • Weak – Draw or lose with a difference of 1 goal • Very Weak – Lose with a difference of 2 or more goals

21. Home – Away Analysis Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction • Observations: • Strongest Home Team: AC Milan • Weakest Home Team: Real Madrid • Strongest Visiting Team: Liverpool • Weakest Visiting Team: Chelsea

22. Interesting Findings Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction Winners Analysis

23. Prediction of Winners Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction • Technique: • Assigned values to strength levels • Aggregated the values of the strength levels • Team Win Probability = (Aggregated Strength Value * Probability) / Number of Matches

24. Testing of Final Prediction Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction • Dataset considered – 2003-2007 • Accuracy: • Home Win: 90% • Away Win: 100%

25. Conclusion Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction

26. Applications & Future Work Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction Applications Future Work

27. References Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Future Work Conclusion Process Sources Introduction • Papahristodoulou, Christos, "Team Performance in UEFA Champions League 2005-06." Munich Personal RePEc Archive (2006) Unpublished, Paper #138 • Barros, Carlos Pestana, Leach, Stephanie, “Performance evaluation of the English Premier Football League with data envelopment analysis.” Applied Economics Vol. 38 No. 12 (2006): 1449-1458 • Websites: • http://www.betinf.com/champ.htm • http://www.betstudy.com/soccer-stats/c/europe/uefa-champions-league/ • http://en.uclpredictor.uefa.com/ • http://www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/index.html • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uefa_Champions_League • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_theorem • http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/ • http://www.soccerbase.com/ • http://europeancups.altervista.org/

28. Thank You Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Future Work Conclusion Process Sources Introduction Thank You Dr. Hsinchun Chen Yulei Zhang (Gavin) Yan Dang (Mandy)

29. Questions Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Future Work Conclusion Process Sources Introduction

30. Head-to-Head Probability Analysis Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction

31. Head-to-Head Probability Analysis Objectives Basic Findings Interesting Findings Conclusion Future Work Process Sources Introduction FC Barcelona Vs Others Liverpool Vs Others