Rational Choice Theory and Deterrence Theory

1. Rational Choice Theory and Deterrence Theory Rational Choice Theory Deterrence Theory Prisoner’s Dilemma

2. Personal Choice

3. Personal choice

4. Personal choice

5. Illustration • Pick a number between [1 and 9] • Multiply by nine • Add two numbers in your two-digit number • Subtract 5

6. Personal choice • An understanding of personal choice is commonly based on a conception of rationality or rational choice

7. The central points of RC theory are: • (1) The human being is a rational actor • (2) Rationality involves an end/means calculation • (3) People (freely) choose all behaviors, both conforming and deviant, based on their rational calculations • (4) The central element of calculation involves a cost benefit analysis: Pleasure versus Pain, • (5) Choice will be directed towards the maximization of individual pleasure and minimizing the pain

8. Costs Risk (victim might have a weapon) Arrest Public humiliation Incarceration Abusive treatment in prison Be away from family for uncertain time Benefits Fast cash Easy to do Masculinity Status Can buy drugs/alcohol Excitement and thrill Public/Media attention Should I commit a robbery? (cost/benefit analysis)

9. Rational Choice Theory • RC theory hold that individuals must anticipate the outcomes of alternative courses of action and calculate which will be best for them

10. The model Steal Money Earn Prison Actor Crime DEBT Borrow

11. Limited Rationality • Accurate assessment of situation and anticipation of all possible outcomes is impossible • Limited rationality refers to the best possible decision under the circumstance • Burglar cannot calculate the value of property he/she expects to take away • Most of them do not know the extent of the punishment

12. Deterrence Theory • Rational choice theorists recognize that the threat of punishment may discourage people from illegal behavior • That is where deterrence theory comes from….

13. Deterrence Theory • If legal penalties are certain, severe, and swift crime will be deterred • Certainty of punishment is defined as the ratio between the number of admissions to the state prisons for a given crime and the number of those crimes known to the police

14. Deterrence Theory • Severity is defined as the mean number of months served by all persons convicted of a given crime who were in prison for that year

15. General Deterrence • General deterrence focuses on reducing the probability of deviance in the general population • Norms and laws are designed to produce and maintain the image that "negative" and disruptive behaviors will receive attention and punishment • Signs like ”Shoplifters will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law” • Death penalty

16. Specific Deterrence • Specific deterrence focuses on punishing known deviants in order to prevent them from ever again violating the specific norms they have broken • Examples: sentencing, mandatory arrests for certain behaviors (domestic violence), etc.

17. Research on Deterrence Theory • 589 incarcerated property offenders in Tennessee were interviewed about criminal decision making • They underestimate the risk of arrest • Routinely overestimate the monetary benefit they expect to get • Have a vague idea about the severity of punishment • Consideration of long-term risk is almost nonexistent

18. Research by Hochstetler and Copes • Interviewed 92 thieves (motor vehicle thieves, armed robbers, and burglars) • Thieves admitted that the things they fear most is that they or their victims may be injured (five interviewees had suffered serious injuries at the hands of victims) • Even the most brazen armed robbers in this sample had a great deal of apprehension about confronting victims who might resist.

19. Research by Hochstetler and Copes • One young thief who ventured into rural areas to steal said: “I am afraid of owners. Shoot, this is country folk. These people do not believe in calling the cops. You in their yard stealing something; they coming out with shotguns. You do not know who’s land you are on. You do not know who or what they are capable of doing. People shoot you around here and bury you in their backyard and no one will ever miss you. …Think about, if you are in their yard stealing you ain’t telling no one you was going to steal this…This ain’t organized crime where you got a boss. This is small time stuff. ”

20. Techniques to manage fear • Drugs, alcohol, and courage • Incremental actions • Interpersonal influences and co-offending • Cognitive tricks • Positive thinking +thinking about the ability to sense trouble, that is rely on intuition • View crime as “exciting” and “thrilling” and think that not everyone can do that

21. Rational decision-making of burglars • Is noticeable in how they select a target

22. Target Selection. The potential target must: • Be unoccupied • Not be easily observed from neighboring homes • Be in a neighborhood where the burglar would not “stand out” or be noticed as a suspicious stranger • Be accessible-really easy to break in • Contains items worth stealing

23. Accessing Gain • Size of the house • Well-maintained property • The type of car(s) • Expensive trees and flowers (a gardener’s truck parked in the street) • Inside information (maids, gardeners, carpet cleaners,etc)

24. Assessing Risk • Alarm systems • Private security patrols • Occupancy • The type of lock installed (deadbolt locks) • Dogs

25. Highest <19 years old head of household African American/Latino Income<$15,000 Urban resident Renter Six or more people in households Resident for less than 6 months Multifamily unit Lowest 65 or older head of household White/non-Latino Income >$75,000 Rural/Suburban Owner Live alone Residents for more than 5years Single-family unit The victim profile in household burglary

26. Research on Deterrence Theory • The deterrence hypothesis suggests that states with the death penalty should have lower homicide rate • Tittle (1992): states with the death penalty have higher murder rates than states without it • The reason is that death penalty is implemented in those states where the murder rate is higher

27. Death Penalty • Bonner, Fessenden (2000) found that death penalty actually increases homicides • Death Penalty has a “brutalization” effect that tends to devalue human life and thereby increase homicide

28. Prisoner’s Dilemma • Two prisoners committed a crime together • They are both under arrest and unable to communicate with each other • In order to force a confession, the authorities offer each prisoner separately, the following deal:

29. Prisoner’s Dilemma PRISONER B Confess Do not confess 5 years 9 years Confess Total -10 Total -9 Goes free 5 years PRISONER A Goes free 2 years Do not confess Total -9 Total -4 9 years 2 years

30. Paradox of the Prisoner’s Dilemma • Both prisoners end up by defecting even though they both know that they would be better off cooperating • Each of them thinks that non confessing is very risky • If one confesses, he may strike lucky (goes free) or get 5 years, at worst.