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二零零六年二月二十二日 22 February 2006

香港經濟概況 Hong Kong economy’s overview. 二零零六年二月二十二日 22 February 2006. Economic performance. 9 quarters of above-trend growth Broad-based upturn Trade, financial and producer services, and tourism are the bright spots; but construction still weak

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二零零六年二月二十二日 22 February 2006

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  1. 香港經濟概況 Hong Kong economy’s overview 二零零六年二月二十二日 22 February 2006

  2. Economic performance • 9 quarters of above-trend growth • Broad-based upturn • Trade, financial and producer services, and tourism are the bright spots; but construction still weak • Significant and broad-based job creation; wages improving gradually • Inflation creeping up but still low

  3. Spectacular GDP growth all through 2005

  4. Double-digit export growth for 3 years in a row

  5. Domestic demand also played a role in recovery

  6. GDP growth led by trading and financial/professional services

  7. Broad-based improvement in labour market • Unemployment down in all sectors, for all age groups and at all levels of education attainment • Long-term unemployment declining • Wages rising back; earnings of lower-income families also improving

  8. Some 240 000 jobs created since 2003 trough

  9. Both unemployment rate and unemployment CSSA cases are falling

  10. Labour income rising back

  11. Workers earning $5,000 – $8,999 down markedly … while those earning $15,000 or more rose

  12. 2006 Economic outlook • GDP growth to settle back to more sustainable growth of 4 - 5%, still above past 10-year trend of 3.9% • Another year of broad-based growth • But risks from external environment and feed-through of higher interest rates • Labour market to improve further • Inflation edging up but still healthy

  13. Economy set for still solid growth in 2006

  14. Inflation creeping up but still low in 2006

  15. Structural issues in labour market

  16. Structural unemployment holding back the improvement in unemployment rate?

  17. Current pace of employment creation actually stronger than those in the past (Time path of total employment in current upturn cf an average economic cycle in 80s and 90s)

  18. Long-term unemployment rate falling in all age groups

  19. …. and improving even for those with lower education

  20. Why unemployment still so high ?

  21. Construction still on distinct downtrend despite strong economic recovery

  22. Also, consumer demand has yet to fully recover

  23. Result is GDP still way below trend growth experienced before the AFC

  24. Still cyclical unemployment in overall terms

  25. But labour force actually adjusting well to structural changes

  26. Today, one out of three people in the workforce working at the managerial, professional or administrative level (*) Excluding FDH workers

  27. Increasing number of workers having tertiary education (*) Excluding FDH workers

  28. Value added per person 1994 2004 (’000) (’000) Manufacturing 190 248 Services 381 398 W/R, I/E and R/H 241 304 Transport, storage and communication 272 362 Financing, insurance, real estate and business services 781 551 Community, social and personal services 279 303 Economy average 343 379 Value-added per service sector job on avg 60% higher than manufacturing

  29. The rising share of services in HK’s economy

  30. Remarkable productivity track record

  31. 謝謝 Thank You

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