1 / 23

Estimating Volumes for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia

Estimating Volumes for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia. Prepared for: 2009 Planning Applications Conference Houston, TX May 18, 2009. Prepared by: Kenneth D. Kaltenbach, P.E. The Corradino Group, Inc Jeremy Raw, P.E.

artan
Download Presentation

Estimating Volumes for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Estimating Volumes forI-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia Prepared for: 2009 Planning Applications Conference Houston, TX May 18, 2009 Prepared by: Kenneth D. Kaltenbach, P.E. The Corradino Group, Inc Jeremy Raw, P.E. Virginia Department of Transportation Transportation & Mobility Planning Division May 18, 2009

  2. Summary • What are HOT lanes? • I-95 HOT Lanes in Fredericksburg • How do you model HOT lanes? • Structure of the finished model • Model performance

  3. What are HOT lanes? High-Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes are a class of managed lanes. • Designated lanes, usually on a freeway • Separated from general purpose lanes • Toll charged for low-occupancy vehicles • No toll for high-occupancy vehicles • Electronic toll collection … Sell the excess HOV capacity

  4. What are the benefits? • I-95 is over capacity, widening for more general purpose is not likely • Encourage three-occupant autos • Sell excess capacity in HOV lanes • Create a new revenue stream by charging those willing to pay for premium service – 50 mph guaranteed

  5. HOT Lanes Modeling in Fredericksburg • HOT Lanes already operating in Northern Virginia (Washington DC area) • HOT Lane extension to Fredericksburg is a new project • Fredericksburg Area MPO (FAMPO) needed to include the project in LRP and Air Quality Conformity. • Had to be implemented quickly, about 90 days.

  6. Extent of the Virginia I-95HOT Lanes Project

  7. Fredericksburg Only Daily 24 hours No mode choice No Transit Daily assignment Extend net into DC Estimate AM, PM and off-peak periods Discrete auto occupancy levels Virginia Railway Express Period assignment with toll and HOT lane allocation Model Effort “VERSION 2.0 MODEL” “VERSION 3.0 MODEL”

  8. Model Requirements • Important Factors for HOT Lane Model • Point of entrance/exit • Variable tolling to control lane congestion • HOT lane effects outside model area held constant • Include Virginia Rail Express ridership effects (DC-oriented commuter rail)

  9. Current FAMPO Version 2.0 Model Network Northern External is Prince William Co. Line

  10. Updated Network Northern External is Potomac River • I-95 External Station split into distance stations • External skims (HOT vs. Free) computed from NCRTPB model • Use of I-95 outside model area held constant

  11. Modeling Assumptions/Sources • Distribution of trips on I-95 corridor outside Fredericksburg area borrowed from National Capital Region model (DC) • Compiled via select link analysis • Auto occupancy rates disaggregated from FAMPO model • Time of Day directional traffic from VDOT traffic counts • Toll/free split borrowed from I-394 MnPASS Express Lane Stated Preference Survey

  12. Modeling Assumptions • Length of trip outside area influences HOT lane use within area • Vehicle occupancy alters sensitivity to toll • SOV, HOV-2, HOV-3 • HOT versus free lane choice made in assignment • Model AM, PM and Off-Peak periods separately • Value of time based on NCRTPB model, but adjusted to 2008 values ($10.24 - $17.06 / hr)

  13. Operating Assumptions • Goal: at least 50 mph in HOT lanes • 3+ person carpools and buses: No Toll • 2-person carpools and drive alone: Pay Toll • Directional operating plan for HOT lanes to conform with DC peak directions (AM-NB, PM-SB, Off-split) • Transponders -- no toll collection delay

  14. Toll Diversion Source: I-394 MnPASS Express Lane Stated Preference Survey

  15. Toll Calculation • Function of the V/C on the managed lanes • Logit function • Several toll ranges explored • Final toll rate ranged between $.00 and $0.25 per mile

  16. Commuter RailVirginia Railway Express • VRE post-processing model • Evaluates impact of HOT lanes on VRE • Incremental logit model • AM peak period trips only • Cube Voyager PT network

  17. Model Performance and Sensitivity • Validation • Sensitivity • Toll Estimation • HOT lane volumes

  18. Validation • Usual 4-step methods – for example …

  19. Model Sensitivity

  20. Toll Estimation

  21. HOT Lane Volumes • HOT lanes coded explicitly • Multi-class assignment by vehicle occupancy HOT Lanes Band Width Plot

  22. Next Steps • Model performed well! • Despite tight Air Quality conformity timeframe • Additional improvements coming up • Recalibrate from new NHTS • Time of Day Modeling (AM, PM, Off-Peak) • Full Mode Choice & Vehicle Occupancy Model • Spatially improved network

  23. Questions? Thank You

More Related