WNA Fuel Market Report Part One - Demand

1. WNA Fuel Market ReportPart One - Demand James Nevling Manager Fuel Supply Projects, Exelon WNA Symposium Thursday 12th September 2013

3. WNA Market Report • WNA (formerly Uranium Institute) has published reports on the supply and demand of nuclear fuel since its foundation in 1975 • The present report is the sixteenth in the series • The report concentrates on the “front end” of the fuel cycle • describing the supply and demand of natural uranium, conversion, enrichment and fabrication • WNA Market report is produced mainly for the members of the WNA but it is widely used by others with an interest in the industry • The report is produced by a ‘Drafting Group’ which consists of members of the WNA representing all sectors of the fuel supply chain and the WNA secretariat • The report is highly appreciated by all sectors as it is based on the knowledge and opinion of the whole industry

4. Fuel Market Report Drafting Group • Joint chairs • Sashi Davies – Extract Resources • James Nevling – Exelon • Chairs of supply subgroups • Jose Aycart – GE-Hitachi • Janet Baldwin – Advance Uranium Asset Management • Lee Clanton – USEC • Derek Gross – Cameco • Rolf Kwasny – Nukem • Veronika Milewski - EDF • WNA Secretariat • Ian Emsley • Kenichiro Kitamura

5. Methodology • The report follows previous practice by using information provided by WNA members, representing all aspects of the fuel cycle globally • Questionnaires were sent to utilities and suppliers (both members and non-members) to improve the knowledge base • The requested data included: • For utilities: nuclear generation forecast, key parameters for reactor operation and fuel inventories • For suppliers: Production forecast for existing facilities as well as the planned new facilities

6. Demand for Nuclear Fuel • Determined by: • Number and size of reactors in operation – nuclear generating capacity • How they are run – load/capacity factors, enrichment level and burn-up • Tails assay at the enrichment plant • Spreadsheet based model

7. WNA Scenario Approach • Three demand scenarios: • Reference case • Upper case • Lower case • Generic assumptions underlie each scenario – • nuclear economics • public acceptance • impact of climate change debate • electricity market structure

8. Generic Assumptions • Reference Scenario: • Improvements occur in the relative economics of nuclear power • Concerns about global warming continue • Gradual restructuring and liberalisation of electricity sector continue • The Fukushima accident has an impact in some countries, but most continue with their previous plans • Public acceptance problems for nuclear projects begin to diminish • Lower and Upper Scenarios: • Roughly the other extremes of the above

9. Importance of the Tails Assay • Essentially an economic decision – relative price of U and SWU • Optimal tails assay -0.30%-0.35% until 2003-4, now below 0.25% • 2013 Market Report - 0.22% for all reactors • Held constant with 2011 Market Report

10. Key Countries • China • Japan • India • Other developing countries (UAE, Turkey, Saudi Arabia)

11. Assessment of Likely Japanese Reactor Restarts 2013 vs 2011 Report • Reactor-by-reactor assessment: • Age • Size • Type • Location

12. operating serious emerging Reference Case Capacity Net GWe (2013 to 2030)

13. World Nuclear Generating Capacity, GWe2013 vs 2011 Fuel Market Report

14. World Enrichment Requirements,000’s SWU