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Revision of Foreign Trade in Czech National Accounts in 2011

Revision of Foreign Trade in Czech National Accounts in 2011. Task Force on Goods in Processing, 8 November 2011, Luxemburg CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE Petr Musil Jaroslav Sixta Tereza Kostakova. Content of the Revision. CIF/FOB adjustment and deflation (FOBxFOB)

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Revision of Foreign Trade in Czech National Accounts in 2011

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  1. Revision of Foreign Trade in Czech National Accounts in 2011 Task Force on Goods in Processing, 8 November 2011, Luxemburg CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE Petr Musil Jaroslav Sixta Tereza Kostakova

  2. Content of the Revision • CIF/FOB adjustment and deflation (FOBxFOB) • Foreign trade in national concept • Processing • Deflation of foreign trade (FOBxFOB??) • Results

  3. Revision of Direct Trade Costs (DTC) • New calculation (updated coefficients) • Improved methodology, keep ESA 95 requirements

  4. CIF/FOB (1) SUT • Fulfill ESA 1995 requirements: SEC

  5. Scheme of Direct Trade Costs (eg. CZ and F) Export CZ (FOB) Import FR (CIF) QDTC Target place Import CZ (CIF) QDTC Target place Export FR (FOB) = Import CZ (FOB) DTC

  6. Coefficient approach from FTS model

  7. Questions? • How do other EU 27 countries estimate CIF/FOB? • Why EUROSTAT prefers FOBxFOB at previous years‘ prices? (deflation done within SUT = CIF, price indices CIF, value of toll, prices of fuel on foreign territory not known)

  8. Non-residents in FTS data • Foreign Trade Statistics (FTS) • Trans-border concept (not change in ownership) • Intrastat respondent = any VAT-registered unit above the national threshold • VAT legislation in EU • Obligatory VAT-registration for any entity that carries on trade in the country (even non-residents with no physical presence in the country)

  9. Export = Domestic purchases of non-residents (in VAT declarations „received taxable supplies with a place of supply in the domestic country) • Import = Domestic sales from non-residents (in VAT declarations „realized taxable supplies with a place of supply in the domestic country)

  10. Consequences (1) • In the Czech Republic (year 2010) • 22 % of Export reported to FTS by non-residents (40 % in CPA26-28) • 14 % of Import reported to FTS by non-residents (30 % in CPA26-28) • Positive Net Export (according to FTS) done mainly by non-residents • Output of some commodities < Export (FTS) of the commodities

  11. Consequences (2) • Using FTS data => Value Added realized by non-residents included in the domestic economy • Inconsistency between net export (FTS) and financial flows (BoP) • Relevance of VAT-registered in national economies may differ but all are affected (<= EU legislation on VAT) • Euro-area data and EU data might be affected as well (non-resident VAT-registered are either from other Member state or non-EU states) (Switzerland, Taiwan)

  12. Suggestions • Adjustment of FTS data to comply better the “change in ownership concept“ • Non-residents (VAT-registered) should report not only the value on borders but also the value at time of change in ownership within borders • Exclusion of non-residents‘ re-export from FTS data (warehouses) • Inclusion of non-residents‘ „negative merchanting“ in the domestic economy (non-residents buy and sell goods bewteen related companies on domestic territory)

  13. Processing after entry to the EU (2004) • New system of data collection • Intrastat, Extrastat • Reporting of import/export for/after processing less important • Decline of reported goods on processing • Export exceeded Output in some commodities (computers, electronic devices, machines and equipment, toys…) • In the balancing process of SUT • increase in Import/Export of goods for processing (=>increase in output and IC, total of FTS import/export of goods unchanged)

  14. Thank you for your attention petr.musil@czso.cz jaroslav.sixta@czso.cz tereza.kostakova@czso.cz

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