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Current Economic Tsunami and Its Impact on Singapore in 2009

Current Economic Tsunami and Its Impact on Singapore in 2009. by Hoon Hian Teck Singapore Management University. Outline. Causes Remedies Impact on Singapore Policy measures adopted in Singapore The Future. Some useful concepts. Bank balance sheet Liquidity Insolvency

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Current Economic Tsunami and Its Impact on Singapore in 2009

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  1. Current Economic Tsunami and Its Impact on Singapore in 2009 by Hoon Hian Teck Singapore Management University

  2. Outline • Causes • Remedies • Impact on Singapore • Policy measures adopted in Singapore • The Future

  3. Some useful concepts • Bank balance sheet • Liquidity • Insolvency • Bank recapitalization • Output gap • Fiscal policy and monetary policy • Jobs credit

  4. Disproportionate Impact Source: Blanchard (2008)

  5. Complexity Source: Blanchard (2008)

  6. Interconnectedness Source: Blanchard (2008)

  7. Increase in counterparty risk Source: Blanchard (2008)

  8. Tighter bank lending standards Source: Blanchard (2008)

  9. Emerging markets not spared Source: Blanchard (2008)

  10. Confidence plunged Source: Blanchard (2008)

  11. IMF growth forecasts for 2009 Source: Blanchard (2008)

  12. MTI’s growth estimates Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore

  13. Singapore’s forecasts • Growth forecast for 2009 from -1 to +2 percent to -2 to +1 percent to -5 to -2 percent on 21 January 2009 • Inflation forecast for 2009: -1 to 0 percent • Resident unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) for December 2008: 3.7 percent compared to 2.9 percent in March 2008

  14. Singapore’s catch-up growth FIGURE 1.8. The evolution of income per capita in the United States, United Kingdom, Spain, Singapore, Brazil, Guatemala, South Korea, Botswana, Nigeria and India, 1960-2000 Source: Acemoglu (2009)

  15. Singapore’s unemployment story

  16. Full References of Sources for Figures Used in Presentation: • Blanchard, Olivier, 2008, “The Crisis: Basic Mechanisms, and Appropriate Policies,” MIT Department of Economics Working Paper Series, Number 09-01, December. • Acemoglu, Daron, 2009, Introduction to Modern Economic Growth, Princeton and Oxford, Princeton University Press.

  17. Thank You

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