Estimation of Disaster Impact on Personal Income and Poverty

1. Estimation of Disaster Impact onPersonal Income and Poverty Application of the DaLA Methodology J. Roberto Jovel

2. Impact on Personal Income and Poverty PLS308 Damage, Loss and Needs Assessment

3. Disasters and Personal Wellbeing Disastersmay cause a temporary decline onlivelihoods and on personal orhouseholdincome in additiontohighercosts of living Theloss of livelihoodsmay in turnresult in increasedpovertylevels in theareasaffectedbythedisaster, introducingincreasedpressuresonthecountry´squestfordevelopment Theselosses can beovercomethroughspeciallydefinedprograms in therecovery and reconstructionstages RJovel

4. What is Required There exists a virtually constant relationship between the amount of gross production and the number of workers in each sector of economic activity Therefore, after the value of production losses due to the disaster has been estimated for all sectors, it is possible to estimate the corresponding expected reduction in personal or household income, in each of the sectors that were affected To do this, baseline information is required on the amount of gross output or production, the number of workers employed, and the average value of wages paid to workers in each sector of economic activity This information is usually available in the national accounts and household surveys conducted by the Statistical Institute of the affected country RJovel

5. Estimation of Post-Disaster Personal Income Losses

6. In view of the production losses in all sectors of activity, there will occur a corresponding decline in personal and household income Persons employed under permanent conditions are not expected to sustain such personal losses Wage earners, on the other hand, are expected to temporarily lose personal income In addition, persons and households are expected to face increased expenditures to cover Partial costs of medicines and medical care Increased food costs Higher transport costs, etc This will result in an overall decline in personal wellbeing, although temporary in nature Disaster Impact on Personal Income and Expenditures RJ

7. Procedure for Income Loss or Decline Estimation • From Statistical Office or Institute obtain information on • Gross production or output for all sectors of economic activity (In National Accounts) • Number of workers and average wages in each sector of economic activity (In most recent Household Survey) • From DaLA obtain the estimated value of post-disaster production losses, for each sector of economic activity and over the entire duration of recovery and reconstruction • Develop a ratio of Post-Disaster Losses vs normal Gross Output or Production for each sector RJovel

8. Procedure for Income Loss or Decline Estimation .. • Estimate the reduction of employment-years in each sector of economic activity, by multiplying the number of employed persons times the ratio developed under previous step • Estimate the value of income decline in each sector of economic activity and for each affected geographical area, over the entire recovery and reconstruction period, by multiplying the value of wage times the number of work-months lost • If disaggregate information is available estimate the differential impact on men and women, in each sector of economic activity RJovel

9. Income Loss Decline Estimation forAgriculture in 2008 Yemen Floods Number of work-years lost Baseline Information from National Accounts 2007, Household Survey 2004 Value of Losses, taken from Damage and Loss Assessment Estimation of Ratios of Production Lost Value of Lost Wages in Agriculture Sector 2008 to 2012 RJovel

10. Summary of Income Loss Decline for All Sectors, 2008 Yemen Floods * ** RJovel

11. Employment Losses2008 Floods in Yemen RJovel

12. 2008 Cyclone Season in HaitiLoss of Employment by Region Income loss: Men 24.6 million US$ Women 10.9 million US$ RJovel

13. 2008 Cyclone Season in HaitiGeographical Distribution of Employment RJovel

14. Employment Losses per Sector and Gender: 2008 Haiti Cyclone Season RJovel

15. Temporal Income Decline after Pandemic Flu in El Salvador RJ

16. Number of persons affected by personal income decline after flu pandemic in El Salvador RJ

17. Estimation of Poverty Aggravation after Disasters

18. Procedure for Poverty Aggravation Estimation • From the most recent poverty or human development survey, determine the number and location of people living below the poverty level in the affected country or area • From the previous estimates of income decline, estimate the additional number of persons that will fall under poverty conditions due to the disaster • Special post-disaster poverty alleviation schemes may be designed later on as part of the recovery and reconstruction programs RJovel

19. Number of people below poverty level, Yemen Number of poorwouldgofrom 310,000 in 2008 to 575,000 in 2009! RJovel

20. Aggravation of Poverty after Flu Pandemic in El Salvador Estimate number of new orphans RJ

21. Pre-Earthquake Map of Human Development Index in El Salvador RJovel

22. Spatial Distribution of Disaster Magnitude by Province (Damage and Losses versus GDP) 57% 22% 31% 19% Roberto Jovel

23. El nuevo mapa de la pobreza Post-EarthquakeMap of Human DevelopmentIndex in El Salvador RJovel

24. Definition of Affected Population How to Classify People on the Basis of Damage and Losses

25. Defining Affected Population After disaster effects (Damage and Losses) have been estimated, different types and degrees of population affected must be defined • Primary affected: those persons living in the affected areas whose assets have been destroyed; dead and ill persons • Secondary affected: persons living in the affected area that have sustained losses in production and income • Tertiary affected: persons living outside of the affected areas that are sustaining higher costs of services (transport, water, sanitation and electricity Each type of persons affected will have different kinds of needs to achieve recovery and reconstruction after the disaster RJovel

26. ThankYou! rjovel@jovel.org