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Causes of Haze Assessment (COHA) update

Causes of Haze Assessment (COHA) update. Mark Green, DRI Attribution of Haze Workgroup/ Modeling Forum Joint Meeting San Diego, Nov. 2-3, 2006. Presentation outline. What have we accomplished to date? What are we working on and expect to finish with existing funds?

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Causes of Haze Assessment (COHA) update

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  1. Causes of Haze Assessment (COHA) update Mark Green, DRI Attribution of Haze Workgroup/ Modeling Forum Joint Meeting San Diego, Nov. 2-3, 2006

  2. Presentation outline • What have we accomplished to date? • What are we working on and expect to finish with existing funds? • What will we do if there is additional funding and at what cost?

  3. Accomplishments to date • Descriptive map gallery – terrain, nearby & regional emissions, nearby met & AQ monitoring sites, nearby urban areas, landuse, landsat photos • Meteorological descriptions – description of terrain effects on flows, nearby urban areas, representativeness assessment, summary of wind/climate data, potential for inversions • Aerosol summaries – avg bext by component all days, 20% best, 20% worst, middle 60% etc. + narrative summary

  4. Accomplishments to date • Backtrajectory analysis – Calculated backtrajectories for all sites for 2000-2002, every 3 hours, 10, 500, 1500 m starting heights • Added 2003 and 2004 at 500 m starting ht. • Residence maps for all days, by month, 20% best and 20% worst days, and 20% worst component days; difference maps, conditional probability maps 2000-2002 on COHA website (>5000 maps) • Trajectory data for 2000-2004 supplied to ARS for TSS tool

  5. Trend analysis and Receptor modeling • 8 and/or 16 year trend analysis for sites with sufficient data • Trajectory regression analysis- apportionment of SO4 and bext at each site to states and regions • PMF modeling – Identification of “source” factors and their attribution to PM2.5 mass for each site group

  6. Trend analysis 20% worst days and 20% highest S extinction 20% worst sulfate 20% worst bext

  7. PMF Output • Source profiles

  8. Example PMF analysis result summary Also get daily importance of each factor

  9. Example trajectory regression sulfate attribution (%)

  10. Other COHA related activities • Causes of Dust – detailed analysis of days with dust most important factor • Tribal Analysis – assessment of causes of haze at tribal areas and representativeness assessment for tribal areas without monitors • Detailed analysis of smoke episodes • COHA contract flexible – allows additional products as the need arises • 14 conference presentations/papers (AWMA, AAAR, AGU); 1 published journal article, 1 in review • Presentations at numerous WRAP meetings

  11. COHA current projects • Assessment of 2002 representativeness for worst case days 2000-2004 (use backtrajectory RTdifference maps of 2002-5 year average; also compare 2002 aerosol concentration and composition to 5 year average • Make website more user friendly – all analysis products for a site available from that site’s “front” page • Evaluation of EDAS winds against monitored upper air data (MM5 also if resources allow) • Provide PMF weighted backtrajectory data to TSS • QA of website- complete and correct maps

  12. BRCA 2000-2002 residence time

  13. 2002 representativeness at BRCA

  14. Evaluation of EDAS winds used in backtrajectory analysis

  15. Possible future activities • Maintain COHA website • Provide data/results for TSS • Determining representative sites (if any) for any IMPROVE sites shut-down • Interpretation of PMF weighted backtrajectories • Provide additional analyses/interpretation as needed for SIPs (including during EPA review) • Help prepare for first 5-year review of progress

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