Presentation Transcript

1. Asbury Communities Inc.enterprise risk managementrisk assessmentAnalysts: Ben Feucht & Mitch Mahfoud25 August 2011

2. Agenda Risk Scoring Criteria Occupancy Rates In-Home Care Pandemics and Epidemics
3. Agenda cont’d Financial Instability Community Support Healthcare Reforms Internal Vulnerabilities
4. Agenda cont’d Terrorism Criminal Activity Cyber Risks Natural Hazards: Winter Storms Thunderstorms Tornados Excessive Heat
5. Agenda cont’d Other Potential Risks: Floods Medicare and Medicaid Fraud Brand Damage More Questions And Contact Information
6. Risk Scoring Criteria Probability of Occurrence Scale
7. Risk Scoring Criteria Impact on Asbury Communities Scale
8. Risk Scoring Criteria Overall Risk Score
9. Fluctuating Occupancy Rates Present An Extreme Risk To Asbury Communities The Probability Of Occurrence Is Likely With Significant Impact
10. Occupancy Rates cont’d Growing demand for non-facility-based care Overall decline in occupancy, real estate market fluctuation Age of retirement Competition / Brand & Reputation Maximum Capacity / Expansion
11. Occupancy Rates cont’d
12. Occupancy Rates cont’d Source: http://tinyurl.com/3trtywk
13. Growing Demand For In-Home Care Presents An Extreme Risk To Asbury CommunitiesThe Probability Of Occurrence Is Likely With Significant Impact
14. Growing Demand cont’d In-Home Care Cost Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security Reform Real Estate Market Fluctuation
15. Pandemics And Epidemics Present An Extreme Risk To Asbury Communities The Probability of Occurrence is About Even Chances With Significant Impact
16. Pandemics and Epidemics cont’d Pandemics vs. Epidemics Type A and Type B flu Viruses More Serious for Older Adults 2009 H1N1 Outbreak Impact on Community
17. Financial Instability Presents A High Risk To Asbury Communities The Probability of Occurrence is Likely With Noticeable Impact
18. Financial Instability cont’d Economic Conditions Challenge CCRCs Bankruptcy Filings by CCRCs Complications in Equity and Credit Markets Loss of Tax Exemption Status for Not-For-Profits CCRCs Residents Potentially Losing Entrance Fee Deposits
19. Community Support Presents A High Risk To Asbury Communities The Probability Of Occurrence Is About Even Chances With Definite Impact
20. Community Support cont’d Unfavorable Support – Houses for Betty AMV – Doesn’t like recent fence construction HDC – Houses for Betty Springhill – ForestView Facelift Manchester Lodge – Construction difficulties
21. Community Support cont’d
22. Government Healthcare Reforms Present A High Risk To Asbury Communities The Probability of Occurrence is Likely with Noticeable Impact
23. Government Healthcare Reforms cont’d Government Implements Deficit Reduction Plan Discussions on Changing Healthcare Programs in the Future Increase in Retired Population
24. Government Healthcare Reforms cont’d
25. Internal Vulnerabilities Present A High Risk To Asbury Communities The Probability Of Occurrence Is Unlikely With Definite Impact
26. Internal Vulnerabilities cont’d Background Checks Missouri physical abuse from employees Snohomish, WA –Nurse, Oriskany, NY Former Bookkeeper Data Security
27. Reducing Insider Vulnerabilities Build on business acumen. Be prepared: Invest sufficient time and resources to be prepared for the worst, possibly even practice incident response with current threats. Implement an effective social media policy. Implement active monitoring activities. Emphasize awareness and training.
28. Terrorism Presents A Moderate Risk To Asbury Communities Probability of Occurrence is Unlikely With Noticeable Impact
29. Terrorism cont’d Attack on an Asbury Community Unlikely Types of Terrorist Attacks Bombing Bioterrorism Chemical Weapons Cyberterrorism Varied Effects on Seniors from Terrorist Attacks
30. Cyber Risks Present A Moderate Risk To Asbury Communities The Probability Of Occurrence Is Unlikely With Noticeable Impact
31. Cyber Risks cont’d Paper Records vs. Computerized Records Data Breaches – Cyber Attacks Types of Cyber Weapons Phishing Trojan Horse Drive-By-Download Valuable Data Stores
32. Criminal Activity Presents A Moderate Risk To Asbury Communities The Probability Of Occurrence Is Unlikely With Noticeable Impact
33. Criminal Activity cont’d Springhill Crime Source: Google Earth
34. Criminal Activity cont’d Downtown Erie, PA
35. Criminal Activity cont’d Asbury Methodist Village Source: Google Earth
36. Criminal Activity cont’d Crime data for Solomons Island – Not Available Crime data for Bethany Village and Bethany Towers – Not Available Inverness Village – Tulsa, OK High concentration of crime in downtown area.
37. Natural Hazards
38. Winter Storms Present An Extreme Risk for Springhill Community in Erie, PA With A Highly Likely Probability and Definite Impact Winter Storms Present A Moderate Risk To The Other Asbury Communities
39. Winter Storms cont’d Damage to Asbury Community Erie, PA Located in the Great Lakes Snow-Belt Erie County Has a Long History of Winter Storms
40. Thunderstorms Present A High Risk To All Asbury Communities Probability Of Occurrence Ranges From Likely To Highly Likely With Impacts Ranging From Localized To Noticeable
41. Thunderstorms cont’d Damage to Asbury Community Can be a Catalyst to Other Natural Hazards Frequent Occurrences can Produce more Disastrous Storms
42. Tornados Present A High Risk To Inverness Village In Tulsa, OK With An About Even Chance Of Probability And Noticeable Impact Tornados Present A Low Risk To All Other Asbury Communities
43. Tornados cont’d Damage to Asbury Communities Most Tornados are Considered Weak Inverness Village Located Near “Tornado Alley”
44. Excessive Heat Presents A Moderate Risk To All Asbury Communities The Probability Of Occurrence Is About Even Chances With Localized Impact
45. Excessive Heat cont’d Number One Cause of Fatalities and Injuries from Natural Hazards 2006 North American Heat Wave And 2002 Maryland Heat Wave Seniors More Vulnerable To Excessive Heat
46. Other Potential Risks The following are risks for Asbury Communities however lack of available information and topic broadness inhibit the development of a more in-depth risk assessment report for each risk.
47. Floods Common Hazard in the US Reports of Floods in Counties Where Asbury Communities are Located
48. Medicare and Medicaid Fraud $60 billion Crime Asbury Residents Use These Entitlements to Cover Medical Expenses
49. Brand Damage Contributing factors Positive vs. Negative influence
50. Analytic Confidence The analytic confidence for this assessment ranges medium to high. Source reliability ranges from medium to very high. There was little to no conflict amongst sources.
51. Contact Information: Mercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence Studieswww.mciis.orgAnalysts:Ben Feucht(814)490-9627 – Cellbfeuch09@lakers.mercyhurst.eduMitch Mahfoud(716)465-0080 – Cellmmahfo99@lakers.mercyhurst.eduSupervisor:Richard Lamb(814)824-3686 – Officerlamb@mercyhurst.edu Asbury Communities Inc. WikiSpace http://asburycommunities-riskassessment.wikispaces.com
52. Thank You! Questions or Comments?