Sustainability technologies in the BRICS countries

1. Sustainability technologies in the BRICS countries Rainer Walz Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research, Karlsruhe, Germany

2. Content • Background and heuristics • Overview of empirical results • Results for the sustainability technology fields • Preliminary Conclusions

3. Background • Increasing ecological problems • also within BRICS countries • Global problems require emissions reductions in all countries • Environmental problems are often associated with infrastructure and resource use • Energy, transport, water, and material use key issues • Environmental concern linked to other dimensions (=sustainability) • Political initiatives on various levels • International environmental policies, MDG • Technology cooperation between industrialized countries and BRICS countries and among them • Focus of research interest • competences and incentives of BRICS countries in sustainabiltiy technologies • First step: (relative) importance of sust. technologies in BRICS NIS

4. Environmental Kuznets Curve

5. Key requirements and incentives for sustainability innovations Integrating sustainability technologies into the economy • Success factors • the same as for the NIS in general • level of sustainability technology relevant capabilities • Incentive: emissions reduction and access to new technology for modernizing economy Lead market strategy • Incentive: emission reduction and first mover advantage for sustainability technologies on the world market • Success factors • Lead market characteristics of technology: Non Heckscher-Ohlin goods • Competitiveness of industry clusters • Rising demand oriented towards innovation and enabling economies of scale, • Innovation friendly regulation • Overcoming path dependency • Technological capability of country with regard to the technology

6. System of Sustainability Innovation (SSI)

7. Empirical Analysis • Technologies with potential for increasing (ecological) sustainability • Renewable energy and carbon neutral fossil fuels (CCS) • Energy efficiency in buildings • Material efficiency • Transportation • Water and wastewater • Additional: social science research on diffusion/obstacles of these technologies • Empirical concept • Research institutions and programs (statistics, interviews) with relation to sustainability technologies • Publications on implementation issues of sustainable technologies (selected (S)SCI journals and fields); problem: language bias • (International) patents in technologies relevant for sustanability • Trade statistics of potential sustainability technologies (UN-COMTRADE) • Guiding questions • Short term: What is the level of activity and capability • Research outlook: How do the activities in each field match (intensity of research with patent, trade and publication specialization, influence of demand, regulation, other factors)

8. BRICS account for 2.5 % of intern. sust. technology patents 9 % of world exports of sust. relevant technologies 4 % of sust. techn. diffusion research Importance for BRICS 5 % (IN) to 13 % (ZA) of patents 3 % (RU) to 12 % (BR) of exports Change over time I, C: high increase B, S: increase R: no dynamic Overview of Results I: World Patent Shares and World Trade Shares of Sustainability Technologies in BRICS Countries

9. Overview II: Specialization of BRICS Countries on Sustainability Technologies • Brazil and South Africa positive, other countries negative specialization • Patent specialization more positive than trade • Accounting for imports (RCA) changes picture not substantially • Preliminary: China specializes more on national than int. sust. techn. patents • Results differ for technology fields

10. Overview III: Importance of trade in sustainability technologies between BRICS-countries • considerable share of exports to other BRICS countries • important export market for BR • Important import market for IN, RU, ZA • Role of China underestimated: substantial share of BRIS sust. technology exports go to China

11. Overview IV: Research System • Sustainability Technologies as such no explicit key area of R&D priorities • Numerous links of selected sustainability fields e.g. energy and transportation, resources • Links differ between countries • B: Biomass, energy, transport, water • R: Energy, transport • I: agriculture/life science • C: renewable energy, clean coal, buildings • S: energy, resource based industries, water • Type of programs • Mostly cross cutting • Some specific programs, especially for energy, transport and water • Sustainability issues in transportation rather weak? • Lower priority for (social) science research on diffusion of sustainability technologies

12. Renewable Energy and CCS • Patent specialization • Positive for Russia and South Africa (clean coal related) • Some positive specialization at disaggregated technology level (e.g. solar thermal and water energy) • Negative export specialization • Trade between BRICS countries • Export markets for Brazil and Russia • China as import country • Research system • Renewable resources important • Clean coal in China important • Conclusion • Promising field, high dynamic • BRICS still relying on knowledge and technology from other countries • Some research to reduce weaknesses

13. Buildings • Average patent specialization • Mostly around average • Only India negative specialization • Negative export specialization, with the exception of China (strong in cooling) • Trade between BRICS countries • Export markets for India and Russia • China as import country • Research system • Moderate importance in Russia and China • Conclusion • BRIS still relying on knowledge and technology from other countries • Promising field for China

14. Materials Use • Positive patent specialization • Renewable resources especially strong • Recycling in China, India weak • Export specialization • Positive for Brazil (ren. resources) and South Africa (recycling) • Negative for other BRICS countries • Trade between BRICS countries • Export markets for Brazil and Russia • China as import country • Research system • Renewable resources in Brazil • Recycling in other RICS countries • Conclusion • Brazil improves strengths • C,I improve weaknesses

15. Transport Technologies • Positive patent specialization only for Russia and South Africa (CCS related) • Export specialization • Positive for Brazil • Negative for India, Russia, South Africa • Trade between BRICS countries rather low • Research system • Important field in B, R, C • Less important for I, S • Conclusion • Very dynamic field • Sustainability aspects within the field must be strengthened

16. Water Technologies • Mostly positive patent specialization • BRIS: positive for water supply and wastewater • C: negative, except flooding • Efficient water use no key topic • Negative trade specialization • Across all subsectors • Trade between BRICS countries medium • Export markets for India and Russia • China as import country • Research system • Important in Brazil and South Africa • Growing perception: that field becomes more and more important in R, I, C • Conclusion • BRICS still relying on other countries, • but important field for improvement in the future

17. Preliminary Conclusions • Sustainability technologies not only improve environment – also potential to foster modernization of economy • Good functioning of system of sustainability innovations required • Sustainability technologies are not an overall key priority in BRICS countries, • but there are numerous links and good starting points • Countries differ with regard to structure of their competences and strategies • Brazil: lead market strategy for biomass based technologies? • Russia: some knowledge base, but not much (market) dynamics? Focus on research exploitation instead of efficiency? • India: no clear picture, priorities too much in other areas? • China: trade performance much stronger than knowledge base, but high dynamics in many fields • South Africa: some knowledge base, but difficulties to receive enough attention? • Increasing importance of Intra-BRICS-trade • Research on diffusion of sustainability technologies below average • Policy conclusions • strategic and systemic positioning necessary • environmental and infrastructure policies are demand oriented innovation policies! • Next research steps: • role of demand and regulation in BRICS countries • Long-term: how do systems of sustainability innovations function