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Escenarios Per ú 2030

Escenarios Per ú 2030. José Luis Cordeiro The Millennium Project. Escenarios Perú 2030: Prospectiva. José Luis Cordeiro The Millennium Project. ¿Qué es el futuro?. ¡El futuro ya no es lo que era antes! Mafalda. ¿Podemos estudiar el futuro ?. ¿Podemos estudiar el clima ?.

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Escenarios Per ú 2030

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  1. Escenarios Perú 2030 José Luis Cordeiro The Millennium Project

  2. Escenarios Perú2030: Prospectiva José Luis Cordeiro The Millennium Project

  3. ¿Qué es el futuro? • ¡El futuro ya no es lo que era antes! Mafalda

  4. ¿Podemos estudiar el futuro? ¿Podemos estudiar el clima? ¿Podemos estudiar las estrellas? ¿Podemos estudiar la Tierra? ¿Podemos estudiar el pasado?

  5. El cono de posibilidades del futuro El futuro no es uno, sino muchos Visión Límites de posibilidad Futuros alternativos Presente La visión es el futuro preferido Pasado Hay futuros posibles, probables y preferibles

  6. Los “trucos” sobre el futuro • No se puede predecir el futuro exactamente, pero se pueden conocer algunos de los futuros posibles SABER ALGO SIEMPRE ES MEJOR QUE NO SABER NADA • No se puede controlar el futuro, pero se puede influenciar actuando proactivamente QUERER ES PODER

  7. Características del futuro 1. El futuro es incierto Admitir incertidumbre 2. El futuro es plural Pensar posibilidades 3. Diferentes suposiciones Descubrir suposiciones crean diferentes futuros 4. El futuro se crea: - Fuera: en la sociedad Comunicar historias - Dentro: en las aspiraciones Incentivar sueños

  8. Actitudesfrente al futuro • Pasiva (avestruz) Sufrir el futuro • Reactiva (bombero) Responder • Preactiva (asegurador) Prepararse • Proactiva (constructor) Crear el futuro

  9. ¿Es la “prospectiva” una ciencia? • Métodos • Teorías • Organizaciones • Fundadores • Literatura, bibliografía

  10. Metodologías de la prospectiva • Clasificación por técnica • Cuantitativa • Cualitativa • Clasificación por objetivo • Normativo (descriptivo) • Exploratorio (tendencial) • Otras clasificaciones (por posibilidad, por probabilidad, por tiempo, etc.) • Mezclas y remezclas entre metodologías

  11. Método Delphi

  12. Método de escenarios matemáticos • Escenario único (2n, n=0, 1 escenario) • Trama o relato • Lógica • Fuerzas generadoras • Estado final • Escenarios múltiples • Eje lineal (2n, n=1, 2 escenarios) • Eje bidimensional de Schwartz (2n, n=2, 4 escenarios) • Ejes bidimensionales generales (2n, n=?) • Ejes multidimensionales (2n+m, n=?, m=??)

  13. Escenarios temáticos de Shell 2050 Dynamics as Usual Energy choices- CitizensEvolutionary system Resource constraints Technologies Social & personal priorities Energy Choices - Consumers Revolutionary developments The Spirit of the Coming Age demographics urbanisation incomes & demand liberalisation Innovation and competition

  14. 1500 Surprise Geothermal Solar 1000 Biomass Exajoules Wind Nuclear 500 Hydro Gas Oil &NGL Coal Trad. Bio. 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Escenario “sustentable” de Shell Carbon sequestration?

  15. Club de Roma: Limits to growth?

  16. Herman Kahn: No limits to growth? Herman Kahn:The Next 200 Years

  17. Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates. 90423-5 Escenarios nos son predicciones

  18. S c e n a r i o S c e n a r i o C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s O b j e c t i v e s • D e v e l o p p l a u s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e • S t r u c t u r e d f u t u r e s f u t u r e s t o h i g h l i g h t s t r a t e g i c r i s k s • E m p h a s i z e s j u d g m e n t a l o n g s i d e • P r o v i d e l o g i c t o t h e t h o u g h t a n a l y s i s p r o c e s s • H i g h l i g h t s a n d l e g i t i m i z e s • P r o v i d e f o r u m f o r u n c o n v e n t i o n a l u n c e r t a i n t y t h i n k i n g a n d n e w i n s i g h t s • A c c e l e r a t e s r e s p o n s e t o u n f o r e s e e n • C o m b i n e s b e s t o f t o p - d o w n a n d c h a n g e s b o t t o m - u p a p p r o a c h e s • P r o v i d e f l e x i b i l i t y i n s t r a t e g i c • C o m m o n l a n g u a g e f o r e f f e c t i v e d i r e c t i o n c o m m u n i c a t i o n Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates. 20102-1 Escenarios: características y objetivos

  19. Escenarios Globales 2020: Millennium Project José Luis Cordeiro The Millennium Project

  20. Millennium Project: Energy 2020

  21. Global Energy Scenarios: Study Flow Millennium Project: Energy 2020 Annotated Bibliography Delphi- Round 1 IFs Model PHASE 1 PHASE 2 Final Report PHASE 3 Draft Scenarios Delphi- Round 2 Final Scenarios Delphi-

  22. Annotated Bibliography Summaries of important scenario studies Global Energy Scenarios to 2050 and Beyond, The World Energy Council World Energy Outlook 2004 and 2005, International Energy Agency International Energy Outlook 2005, Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy International Energy Outlook 2004, Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy Energy needs, choices and possibilities: scenarios to 2050, The Shell Scenarios World energy, technology and climate policy outlook 2030, European Commission Renewable Energy Scenario to 2040, European Renewable Energy Council Comparison of the Global Energy Studies Other Related Scenarios and Reports

  23. Previous Scenario Comparisons

  24. Pacific Asia (6) Middle-East and 5% Sub-Saharan Africa (10) North Africa (1) 8% 1% South East Asia (16) Europe (47) 12% 35% North America (22) Latin America (29) 17% 22% 6 IO 22 Government 25 NGO 29 Academia 49 Private Sector 0 10 20 30 40 50 Demographics of the Delphi (round 1) Total participants: 181(not including the RT Delphi) Regional Sectoral

  25. Pacific Asia (2) Europe (21) 3% Sub-Saharan Africa (4) 28% 5% South-East Asia (13) 17% North America (16) Latin America (20) 21% 26% 1 IO 16 Academia 16 NGO 20 Private sector 23 Government 0 5 10 15 20 25 Demographics of the Delphi (round 2) Regional Total participants: 116 Sectoral

  26. Four Global Scenarios for 2020 1. Business as usual. Global changes continue without great surprises or much change in energy patterns, other than those resulting from dynamics and trends already in place 2. Environmental backlash. The international environmental movement becomes more organized and violent, attacking fossil energy industries 3. High tech economy. Technological innovations accelerate beyond current expectations, and have large scale impacts in the energy supply mix and consumption patterns 4. Political turmoil. Increasing political instability and conflicts, relating to or resulting from energy needs and capacities

  27. Global Energy Scenario Elements

  28. More Than 2/3 of Participants Agreed(for Business As Usual Scenario)

  29. More Than 2/3 of Participants Agreed(for Environmental Backlash Scenario)

  30. More Than 2/3 of Participants Agreed(for High Tech Scenario)

  31. More Than 2/3 of Participants Agreed(for Political Turmoil Scenario)

  32. The IFs Computer Simulation Model The International Futures (IFs) computer model, maintained at the University of Denver, was used for additional quantitative scenario data The original model was produced for the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and its 2020 Project It has also been used by other groups like the UNEP GEO Project and The Club of Rome Five output variables computed Annual emissions from fossil fuels- billion tons Energy demand- bil barrels OE Energy price: index, base 100 in 2000 GDP per capita in PPP 95 dollars- thousand dollars Annual water usage- cubic km

  33. Carbon emissions

  34. Energy demand

  35. Energy prices

  36. GDP per capita

  37. Oil costs and reserves

  38. Deeper and deeper

  39. Energy “waves”: “decarbonization”

  40. Technology pushes off the limits • 21st century energy drivers • Technological change • New discoveries • Resource substitution • The proper energy mix • Old oil and new oil • Gas and more gas • Coal and less coal • Renewables • New energy sources

  41. Bioenergy and “eternal” energy Craig Venter and his petroleum bacteria Photosynthesis CO2 + 2 H2O + light → (CH2O) + O2 + H2O From fossil hydrocarbons to live carbohydrates Bacteria Petroleum artificiali to produce “gasoline”

  42. The Energy “Internet” Buckminster Fuller Global Energy Network Institute GENI.org

  43. Sheik AhmedYamani, 2000 Saudi Arabia The Stone Age did not end because of lack of stones, and the Oil Age will end soon and not because of lack of oil.

  44. Earth-based solar energy 6 land blocks of 3 TW are enough for all humanity today

  45. NASA: Space Solar Power (in stand-by) FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 10 kW 100 kW 1 MW 2002 2003-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 SSP Concept definition complete Complete Initial SSP Technology Research for 1-10 MW Class to Full-Scale Systems Technology Testbeds Studies & Proof-of-Concept Technology Research (TRL 2-4) Component-Level Proof-of-Concept experiments Complete Initial R&D for 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP Ground Test of SPG/WPT/Other Breadboards Technology Research, Development and Test (TRL 4-5) Ground Test very large deployable structures Complete Initial R&D for 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP High Power SEPS For Science Probes High-Power GEO CommSats High Efficiency Arrays for S/C Dual-Purpose Applications R&D (TRL 4-6) MSC 3 10 MW-Class Flight Demo (TRL 7) Lunar Power, Large SEPS Large structures for large apertures & solar sails MSC 1 100 kW Class SSP flight demo 50 M Class flight expt. (incl SPG, AR&D, dist. control) Technology Demos (TRL 6-7) MSC 4+ (2020+) Component-Level Flight Experiments 1 MW Class SSP advanced technology subsystem flight demo’s (SPG/SEPS/WPT) MSC 2 10-100 kW SSP planetary surface demo LEGEND R&D Decision Point Major R&D Pgm Milestone Strategic R&T Road Map Objective SSP Model System Concept(s)

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