Measuring NH in 2014

1. Measuring NHin 2014 Board of Directors Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair David Alukonis William H. Dunlap Eric Herr Dianne Mercier James Putnam Stephen J. Reno Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh Michael Whitney Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Todd I. Selig Kimon S. Zachos Directors Emeritus A Visual Guide to the Year Ahead January 2014 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

2. Measuring 2014 The past year was full of weighty public policy debates in New Hampshire: the passage of a new two-year state budget, debates over legalized casino gambling and expanded Medicaid, and efforts at developing a strategic economic plan for the state. 2014 shouldn’t be any less busy. The following seven charts provide a selective overview of some of the issues that are sure to be part of New Hampshire’s public policy conversations in the coming 12 months. As in recent years, the precise contours of these debates are difficult to predict with clarity. But these charts scope out the policy hot spots and should help generate discussion about the issues likely to shape the state’s near future. You’ll find lots more information on these topics at the Center’s website – nhpolicy.org.

3. As population growth slows… • New Hampshire continues to see very modest population growth coming out of the recession. If this demographic trend continues, it will have big implications for the state’s economy, schools, and other policy areas. If reversing this trend is a priority for policymakers, what steps can they take to address it?

4. …New Hampshire ages • Continued slow in-migration will likely result in continued aging of the population. That trend – with nearly a third of residents over age 65 by 2040 – will require changes in healthcare, housing, transportation and other issues. Policymakers will begin laying the groundwork for that shift now.

5. An uncertain jobs picture • 2014 is expected to be the year that New Hampshire finally returns to the number of jobs it had before the recession. Yet unemployment remains relatively high, and other states are seeing more robust economic growth than New Hampshire. What steps are available to help return New Hampshire to its traditional position near the front of the nation in job growth in 2014?

6. Projecting state revenues State revenues are expected to make a modest increase over 2013. Policymakers will monitor those receipts through the coming months as an indicator of the state of the broader economy. They will also decide what to do with a $76 million surplus from the previous fiscal year: Restore recession-era spending cuts, or replenish the state’s reserve fund?

7. Total Medicaid cases in NH, 2006-2013 Medicaid expansion Medicaid expansion will be a major topic of debate for the 2014 legislative session. While enrollment in the program accelerated through the years of the Great Recession (2007-2010), total cases have been flat since that time. The decision of whether or not to expand eligibility in 2014 will have a big impact on these figures in coming years.

8. Health care costs still a concern While the rate of growth in healthcare costs in New Hampshire has abated somewhat, the issue will continue to be a major topic of concern. The continued implementation of the Affordable Care Act through 2014 will certainly bring about changes in healthcare costs and access, as well. 

9. Common Core continues As in most of the country, 2014 will see continued steps toward the implementation of the Common Core standards at schools across New Hampshire. Granite State students typically score well above the national average in standardized tests, but the Common Core will usher in a new set of assessments.

10. New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies Board of Directors Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair David Alukonis William H. Dunlap Eric Herr Dianne Mercier Richard Ober James Putnam Stephen J. Reno Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh Michael Whitney Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Todd I. Selig Kimon S. Zachos Directors Emeritus Want to learn more? • Online: nhpolicy.org • Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy • Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy • Our blog: policyblognh.org • (603) 226-2500 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”