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Give me a higher return The Signature Income & Growth story. Geof Marshall, CFA and Malcolm White, CFA. Finding income in a low yield world. Relative value in a traditional balanced asset mix. Forward earnings yield based on IBES 12-month forward S&P 500 earnings.
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Give me a higher returnThe Signature Income & Growth story Geof Marshall, CFA and Malcolm White, CFA
Finding income in a low yield world Relative value in a traditional balanced asset mix Forward earnings yield based on IBES 12-month forward S&P 500 earnings
Income opportunities – high-yield bonds “Yield is a head start on outperformance” Offset equity volatility Offset interest rate risk High yield: 90% of the monthly return of stocks with 45% of the volatility = 2x higher risk-adjusted returns ––High yield cumulative return –– S&P 500 cumulative return
High-yield bonds More to credit analysis than credit ratings:
High-yield bonds More to credit analysis than credit ratings:
Sears overview More to credit analysis than credit ratings: • Retailing icon founded in 1893 • 4,000 Retail Locations, #4Broadline retailer in the U.S. • Hedge fund ownership • Sears and Kmart combined in March 2005 • Strategy remains adrift, financial results deteriorating
Neiman Marcus overview More to credit analysis than credit ratings: • Women’s luxury apparel retailer • 44 stores in the U.S. including Bergdorf Goodman in New York • 2005 private equity leveraged buyout • Luxury consumer is back • InCircle customer focus sets them apart • Store growth has resumed
Income opportunities:High-yield bonds Bond comparison
Four C’s of credit analysis: Capacity to repay Sears • 90% decline in EBITDA since ~2006 • 18 quarters of negative same-store sales growth • $40 billion in sales, ~$400mm in capital expenditures • Canada no longer an ATM • Answer = asset sales Neiman Marcus • EBITDA approaching pre-recession highs • Positive same-store sale growth trend since 2010 • Sponsor dividend funded by cash on hand • Capital markets receptive to this company Advantage: NMG
Four C’s of credit analysis: Character Sears • Revolving door management – new CEO has no previous retail experience • Asset stripping and self-dealing • Weak reporting standards and high executive turnover • Unreasonable shareholder activity Neiman Marcus • New CEO, promoted from within • Depth and longevity to management team • Best-in-class private company disclosure • Reasonable shareholder activity Advantage: NMG
Four C’s of credit analysis: Collateral Sears • Significant inventories • Material owned real estate assets • Valuable brands: Kenmore, Craftsman, DieHard • Land’s End • Sears Canada Neiman Marcus • Small proportion of owned real estate • Merchandise inventory subject to fashion risk • Business model generates consistent cash flow • International markets remain untapped Advantage: Tie
Four C’s of credit analysis: Covenants Sears • 2nd lien on inventory and accounts receivable with put right • Yard sale of real estate and brands continues • Introduction of additional secured debt probable • Unlimited restricted payments Neiman Marcus • Most junior debt in capital structure • No security • Significant layering possible • ‘Covenant-lite’ capital structure • Restricted payments largely exhausted Advantage: Tie
Income opportunities: High-yield bonds Price difference: bad business = volatility ––Nieman Marcus Bond –– Sears bond Source: Bank of America
Income opportunities: High-yield bonds Performance difference: aiming for ‘boring’ Source: Bank of America
What happens wheninterest rates rise? High yield and U.S. investment grade bond return correlations to 5-year U.S. Treasuries (52 week trailing) Source: Bank of America
What happens when interest rates rise? High-yield bond returns during past federal funds rate tightening episodes (total returns/not annualized) Source: UBS (Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis) Index data is Bank of America Merrill High Yield Master II Index in USD
Ways to gain exposure to Signature’s high-yield bond portfolio Source: CI Investments, March 2012
CI Signature Diversified Yield Fund *Inception November 2009 Source: Globefund
CI Signature High Income Fund *Inception December 1996 Source: Globefund
CI Signature Corporate Bond Fund *Inception December 2001 Source: Globefund
The Hype was Real – Just The Timing was Wrong Source: Gartner, Bloomberg
More Devices than People Source: Intel
Facebook – the largest country in the world Facebook users (in millions) Source: Facebook; Graph by Ben Foster
Facebook – we know where you live & who you know Source: Facebook
More data than the world has ever seen Source: Passive Pundits
Powered by Virtual Cities of Infrastructure What is 10PB; Source: Backblaze
Yes, they do make money … Source: Google
… And the possibilities are unthinkable Source: IBM
Malcolm White, CFAVice-President, Portfolio Management and Portfolio Manager with Signature Global Advisors of CI Investments Inc., has over 16 years of investment experience in a career that included analytic roles at Merrill Lynch Canada and First Marathon Securities (now National Bank Financial). Malcolm specializes in the technology, media and telecommunications sectors. He was selected as one of Canada’s Top 50 Portfolio Managers and global industry expert in recent Brendan Wood International surveys. Malcolm White – Portfolio Manager
Disclaimer Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Unless otherwise indicated and except for returns for periods less than one year, the indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in security value. All performance data assume reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. ®CI Investments and the CI Investments design are registered trademarks of CI Investments Inc.