Norwegian Ocean and Climate Project (NOClim)

1. Norwegian Ocean and Climate Project (NOClim) Phase II: 2003-2006 including ProClim (Polar Ocean Climate Processes) By Solfrid Sætre Hjøllo (project officer) Peter M. Haugan (project leader) Presented by Helge Drange (module leader) Project office at

2. Outline of talk • Objectives and structure of NOClim II • Results and status from the tasks • Connections to other parts of NORKLIMA • Motivation for continuation as a coordinated project • Important future NOClim questions

3. 1. Objectives and structure NOClim Phase II Overall objective to significantly improve our understanding of processes which govern oceanic heat transport towards the Nordic Seas, and which provide the basis for atmospheric heat transport from the Atlantic sector towards northern Europe. Funding 2003-2006: 16 mill NOK (18 person years) From Norklima

4. NOClim Phase II Structure Mod A: Theory and modelling of the meridional oceanic heat transportTo elucidate how stable the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is to human induced greenhouse warming Drange/Nøst, LaCasce, Melsom

5. NOClim Phase II Structure Mod B: Analyses of abrupt changes in the pastTo identify whether rapid climate transitions in the past were associated with changes in the overturning rate in the Nordic Seas. Dokken/Østerhus

6. NOClim Phase II Structure • Mod C: Analysis of modern variability and detection of significant changes • To investigate whether the balance of evidence (from observations, process understanding and models) indicates that abrupt changes are underway or likely to happen in the near future • Mauritzen/Loeng, Skagseth, Mork

7. Four work packages • Deep mixing and sinking T Eldevik • Water mass formation on shelves P M. Haugan • Slope convection and overflows off shelves B Ådlandsvik • Integration by (basin scale) models, observations and theory H Drange (2005-2006 only) Funding 2003-2006: 26 MNOK (28 person years) From the Polar Climate Programme

8. ProClim Key innovative activities: • Development of coupled fine scale atmosphere-ice-ocean polynya model (in WP2) • Microstructure measuring system (MSS) (in WP3) • Trawl-proof bottom-mounted ADCPs in Storfjordrenna and south of Bjørnøya, contribution to ASOF (in WP3)

9. 2. Results and status • Status publications (partly updated in 2005):117 • Status personell • Resources: 18 (NOClim) + 28 (ProClim) person years • 3 changed start/end-dates within project period, 2 end-dates extended to 2007 due to maternity leaves.

10. Deviations from project plan • 2003-2004: only minor • 2003, NOClim mod B: Geological focus shifted from Faeroe-Shetland Channel to Faeroe margin due to better core quality and more representative current regime covered • 2004, ProClim WP3 : Idealized very high-resolution experiments postponed to 2005/6 • 2005: Field work ProClim WP2 not completed due to weather, polar bears • Alternative solutions: 2006 reduced scope field work or expand theoretical work

11. Selected results, NOClim mod C Figure here (c.mauritzen@met.no) “Dilution of the northern North Atlantic Ocean in recent decades” Curry and Mauritzen, Science, 2005, in press

12. Selected results, NOClim mod A Influence of the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre on the Thermohaline Circulation Hjálmar Hátún, Anne Britt Sandø, Helge Drange, Bogi Hansen, Heðinn Valdimarsson Submitted to Science, in review Figure here (helge.drange@nersc.no)

13. Mapping position of the Polar Front 1 1 Selected results, NOClim mod B 2 2 Changes in depth of thermocline can be reconstructed from 1) paleo-proxies of plantic foraminifera and 2) by geochemical analysis of benthic foraminifera( bottom welling species) Knowledge of frontal slope  geostrophic flux calculations

14. Selected results ProClim WP1, 2 and 3 Synthesis ProClim WP4

15. 3. Connections to other parts of NORKLIMA • Co-operation • CABANERA (Carbon fluxes in the Barents Sea) Field work and ocean mixing studies: Fer/Sundfjord • ECOBE (North Atlantic climate variability - Barents Sea ecosystem) Bjørnøya-Fugløya moorings, cruises, practial collaboration • RegClim Ocean/ice model development: Budgell, Ådlandsvik • Future applications • NOClim+ProClim will provide input to large-scale climate modelling • ProClim WP4 quantified flux exchanges: useful for marine effect studies • RegClim marine effect studies

16. 4. Motivation for continuation • Natural variability and climate changeQuantification and process studies important for basic understanding, and for evaluation and development of climate models • International Polar Year 2007Enormous, unique amount of data allowing comprehensive climate research in the Atlantic/Arctic sector • International effortsE.g. UK RAPID already extends to 2008, further extension planned

17. 4. Motivation for continuation … as a coordinated project Mostly positive experience

18. 4. Motivation for continuation … as a coordinated project Mostly positive experience • Stimulates cross-disiplinary and cross-institutional publications, and public outreach • National and international networking • NOClim internationally established as ”brand name”, even as the youngest of the coordinated NORKLIMA projects • Access to networks of special relevance for recruitment and female personell • Comparable project size allows influence • Opportunities: ASOF/CLIC/EU IP DAMOCLES, Nordic, US SEARCH • Predictable financial support creates good working environment

19. 4. Motivation for continuation … as a coordinated project cont. Possible weaknesses (general moments with specific comments for Noclim+ProClim) • Only mainstream science? Project ideas mainly recruited from well-established groups/institutions, too little responsibility given to young promising scientists, too much ”marching band” • Too small/large group? NOClim II+ProClim has suitable and manageable size and structure for the topics addressed. Reduced size means less research topics. • Disciplinary vs. cross-disciplinary research Cross-disciplinary research has, in general, a great potential but is also prone to partly fulfilment of expectations or failure (e.g., paleo-geophysics)

20. 5. Important future NOClim questions • Building on developed competence 1) Transport of heat, salt and momentum by eddies • Cross-frontal exchange, circulation, biological impact 2) Sea ice processes • New ice freezing, ice transport and deformation, new possibilities for extended use of remote sensing observations (SAR), expand geographical coverage to wider polar regions 3) Overflows and vertical mixing • Apply expertise to Denmark Strait, North Atlantic, Southern Ocean – key ocean process in the global climate system 4) Contribute to the development of parameterisations to be used in large-scale climate models

21. Innovative aspects and potential • Coupled paleo/oceanography research • Geological cores in sections allows dynamical interpretations/flux calculations: New methodology, large potential – but difficult – and not yet proven • Marine and polar climate monitoring systems • Development and international collaboration, linked to ASOF, AOOS, AOSB/Clic, SEARCH, CARE, RAPID, and EU Integrated Project DAMOCLES from late 2005 www.noclim.org www.gfi.uib.no/~proclim Project office at

22. Aftenposten 26.04.2005: "Da Norges forskningsråd fikk i gang sitt ellers meget prisverdige program for polar klimaforskning for perioden 2003- 2006, var det en uttrykkelig forutsetning at forskningen kun måtte foregå i "norske" områder." "En sterk norsk satsing, fokusert på grunnforskning av høy kvalitet, og som sikrer at norske forskergrupper ikke tvinges inn i snevre geografiske rammer, kan få frem en ny generasjon av polarforskere." Final word from project leader Process oriented, high quality basic research is required to achieve real progress in understanding the climate system. -Please allow us to accept invitations to use other countries’ infrastructure, too! www.noclim.org www.gfi.uib.no/~proclim Project office at