IOC Expert Missions May-August, 2005

1. UNESCO IOC TSUNAMI PROGRAMME TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS: Monitoring and Mitigating Tsunami Risk IOC Expert Missions May-August, 2005

2. 2 TSUNAMI THREATS LOCAL / REGIONAL TSUNAMI: • Generated nearby • Strikes shore quickly (w/i minutes) => NO TIME for official evacuation • Damage only to limited area • Education, Awareness, Immediate Response DISTANT / OCEAN-WIDE TSUNAMI: • Generated far away • Strikes shore later (2+ hours) => TIME for official evacuation • Widespread Damage • Tsunami Warning Center July 12, 1993,Japan Sea December 26, 2004, Sumatra

3. Hazard Reduction Strategy: Warning Guidance • POSSIBLE IMPLEMENTATIONS: • RECEIVE TSUNAMI WARNING MESSAGE FROM REGIONAL TWC or OTHER NATION • a. CONTRIBUTE DATA TO REGIONAL MONITORING NETWORKS (SEISMIC, SEA LEVEL) • MAINTAIN LOCAL STATIONS • b. DO NOT HOST ANY STATIONS • 2. MONITOR SEISMICITY REGIONALLY, MONITOR SEA LEVELS REGIONALLY . • LOCATE AND EVALUATE EARTHQUAKES • EVALUATE TSUNAMIGENIC POTENTIAL • ISSUE TSUNAMI WARNINGS

4. Hazard Reduction Strategy: Warning Guidance COMPONENTTECHNOLOGYPRODUCT 2.WARNING• Measurement • Early Detection GUIDANCE• Telecomm • Real-Time Data • Numerical • Wave Forecast Simulation •Warning Dissem “to the last km” 15 min 60 min 3 4 Hrs to Hawaii 15 Local tsunamis Tele-tsunamis

5. What are the essential information for Civil Defense and the emergency plan ? The warning center must provide: 1) Information on the earthquake - location and magnitude 2) Information on tsunami - arrival time at coastal location - wave height at coastal location 3) Seriousness of the warning - Evaluation of the danger - Prediction of human (injuries, casualties, rescues) and environmental/structural impact Dec 26, 2004, Sri Lanka (Centre Polynésien de Prévention des Tsunamis)

6. HAZARD MITIGATION Warning System alerts all persons on every vulnerable coast of imminent danger • Robust, extensive communications • Response must be: • Rapid (as soon as possible) • Accurate (minimize false warning) • Reliable (continuous operation) • Effective (to save lives) Ocean-wide: PTWC w/i 30 min Regional USA WC/ATWC, Japan NWPTIC, and France CPPT, Chile SHOA National: Russia, Peru w/i 10-15 min Local: Japan, USA, Chile w/i 5 min

7. THREE BASIC WARNING NEEDS • VERY RAPID EARTHQUAKE EVAL • VERY RAPID SEA LEVEL EVAL • VERY RELIABLE COMMUNICATIONS • Multi-national, Global Nets • Real-time transmission • (Radio, microwave, • landline/satellite phone, • satellite, Internet) • ALL REQUIRED FOR WARNING

8. Improving Warning Guidance Real-time, deep ocean, tsunami detection

9. SIMPLE COLOR CODED LEVELS OF TSUNAMI WARNING YELLOW: Delay > 9 hours and Mm >= 7.0 Warning at the Lab. Info to Civil Defense, High-Authorities ORANGE: Delay 3 - 6 hours and Mm >= 8.0 Severe danger of tsunami not yet confirmed. Population is not yet informed. RED: Delay < 3 hours or Mm >= 9.0 Imminent danger (< 3 hours), or very severe danger of tsunami. General warning for evacuation of population along coast, boats in harbor, airport. (Centre Polynésien de Prévention des Tsunamis)

10. TSUNAMI WARNING Tsunami Signboard TSUNAMI WARNING Communication & Transmission of Tsunami Warning to Localities & Civil Defense Authorities Central Government Local government TSUNAMI WARNING Radio TV / Radio Station TV（Telops, Warning maps） Cabinet Office Japan

11. Alert & Warning • Getting warning to responders • Getting warning to public • Use table top exercises to identify problems and for training • Conduct drills in the community • Test the notification systems

12. Keys to System Effectiveness: People drive All Hazards Response Warning Center: Science, Technology, Prediction Decision Point Response Emergency Operations Center: Public Safety Advisory Lives saved, Damage less Warning System Design: • Feedback Loop – is it working – if not, why? • Scientist – Public interaction Response System should be: • Robust, Rapid • Well-organized • Appropriate for country Community Issues: • Suffer main impact • Spec issues-women, poverty • Each community unique • They are the first responders • Empowerment, risk tolerance OFDA, USA

13. RANET Project: Satellite broadcast of environmental data … Every Economy/Community has different requirements anddifferent challenges. There isno single solution, but all solutions must work together – • Sustainable communications must serve remote communities’ information needs, • - Layered - from ground up and top down; • - From the local out to the regional; • - From the central outward - hub and spoke system • >> Multiple solutions must be available

14. TSUNAMI WARNING LIMITATIONS • Initial warnings are based solely on seismic data (false warnings) • Too sparse sea level data (wait too long) • Teletsunami forecasting only beginning (warning accuracy poor) • Difficult to warn and educate for local tsunami. (no warning where biggest impact) • Miss landslide-generated tsunamis (underwarn) BALANCE # FALSE WARNINGS & MISSED EVTS False Warnings will occur – Prepare, Educate Public, Media, Emergency Mgrs 1994 Hawaii false warning cost USD $75M

15. AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM WILL SAVE LIVES - Requirements 1. Warning – local (educate), distant (monitoring center) 2. Dissemination - Recognized National Authority receives Warning, and immediately evaluates to issue Public Advisory Communities receive Public Advisory, and immediately takes public safety action (evacuate) For an appropriate response, - government must understand phenomena, and limitations of impact prediction, - have already practiced response plan, - have already educated and prepared public, - have already minimized impact through pre-disaster mitigation - during - afterward, be prepared to explain to highest government leaders and public why decisions made

16. IMPLEMENTING an EFFECTIVE EWS TWO ENTITIES CRITICAL (Pacific experience): 1. WARNING CENTERprovides warning guidance including Basin-wide warnings, sub-regional warnings 2. NDMO disseminates public message, communicates hazard and risk, provides preparedness guidance, works to ensure effective sustainable system • BOTH MUST WORK CLOSELY TOGETHER 3. EWS SUSTAINABLE – ALL-HAZARDS APPROACH 4. REGIONAL COORDINATION AND DATA SHARING ESSENTIAL, esp for regional and distant tsunamis. 28 March 2005: System worked and was exercised, but FALSE WARNINGS must be minimized • Credibility of warning center • Economic Impact – Hawaii, US $75 million in 1994