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Economic policy in a time of austerity

Economic policy in a time of austerity. Tom Sefton Economics and Social Policy Adviser Church of England @ TASefton. Outline. Shorter-term economic priorities: Deficit reduction Growth Fairness Long-term structural challenges: e.g. Stagnating living standards. Deficit reduction.

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Economic policy in a time of austerity

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  1. Economic policy in a time of austerity Tom Sefton Economics and Social Policy Adviser Church of England @TASefton

  2. Outline • Shorter-term economic priorities: • Deficit reduction • Growth • Fairness • Long-term structural challenges: • e.g. Stagnating living standards

  3. Deficit reduction

  4. Spending and revenues – with & without policy Source: IFS Green Budget 2013

  5. Labour (actual) Labour (Mar 2010 plans) Coalition (Jun 2010 plans) Source: Budget June 2010 (and previous Budget reports for earlier years)

  6. Source: Office for Budget Responsibility Economic and fiscal outlook charts and tables - March 2013

  7. June 2013 plans Source: IFS Green Budget 2013

  8. “Consideration should be given to greater near-term flexibility in fiscal adjustment path in the light of lacklustre private demand." (IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2013)

  9. Timing and composition of fiscal consolidation Source: IFS Green Budget 2013

  10. Growth

  11. Source: NIESR

  12. Source: Gavyn Davies, ‘Why is UK recovery weaker than the US?’ (FT, Nov 14 2012)

  13. Source: Labour Market Statistics (EMP02)

  14. Fairness

  15. Source: Own analysis based on Budget reports and Autumn Statements

  16. Source: IFS Green Budget 2013

  17. Forecasts for UK child poverty: 2010-2020 Source: Browne, J. et al (2013), ‘Child and Working-Age Poverty in Northern Ireland [and UK] from 2010 to 2020’

  18. Source: British Social Attitudes Survey

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