Smart Climatology: Methods and Products Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)

Smart Climatology: Methods and Products Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Brief Presented at Air Force Weather Technology Transition Summit AFWA, 6-7 September 2006 Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Co-Authors • Tom Murphree, NPS • Mark LaJoie, Maj, USAF • Adam Stepanek, Capt, USAF • Damon Vorhees, Capt, USAF • Joel Feldmeier, LT, USN • Bruce Ford (USN retired), Clear Science, Inc. • Karl Pfeiffer, Lt Col, USAF • Chuck Wash, NPS • Chris Hanson, Capt, USAF • Sarah Moss, 1st Lt, USAF • In Coordination and Collaboration with: • Air Force Combat Climatology Center • Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Detachment • Naval Research Laboratory • Civilian climate research & operational climatology organizations Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Problems and Causes • DoD lacks state-of-the-art climatological support. • Typical development of military climo products excludes many modern methods of climate analysis and forecasting. • Military climatology products often fail to account for recent advances in climate: • data sets • analysis and reanalysis • downscaling • modeling • monitoring • forecasting Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Shortfalls in Existing Climatology Products Heavy Precipitation and Flooding, Afghanistan & Pakistan, 1-15 Feb 2005 Precip Rate Anomaly, 1-15Feb05 Aerial View Precip Fig mm/d • Precip, temp, snowmelt, and runoff anomalies had large impacts on DoD operations. • Almost no DoD climo products available to explain, monitor, or forecast these anomalies or operational impacts. From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; 2006. Advisors: T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Proposed Solutions • Smart climatology State-of-the-art basic and applied climatology that directly supports DoD operations • Long term smart climatologyprogram to: • Educate AFW and Navy METOC personnel on smart climo • Develop smart climo methods • --- including adaptation of civilian sector methods • Develop smart climo products • Transition methods and products to operational use NPS is conducting a smart climatology program to help meet these needs. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Benefits of Smart Climatology • Climatologycontributes to weather analysis and forecasting: • Climatology forecasts of weather • Model ICs, BCs, and parameterizations • Ensemble forecast assessment • Model selection • Regime-based analysis and forecasting • TDAs • FRNs • Forecast skill assessments • Uncertainty assessment and risk management • So, expect smart climatology products to: • improve analysis and forecasting of both climate and weather • benefit combatant commanders at all planning levels • --- strategic, operational, and tactical Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Goals of NPS Smart Climatology Program • Implement smart climo educational program. • Develop research products for use in developing operational products. • Develop prototype operational products. • Transition products to DoD operational centers. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Smart Climatology - Methods and Products • Implement Educational Program • Two smart climo courses, both with strong emphasis on basic science, operational climo, and military applications • Develop Research Products • Analysis and forecast systems for assessing regional impacts of climate variations: El Nino, La Nina, Madden-Julian Oscillation, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, North Atlantic Oscillation • Focus regions: • SWA, HOA, east Asia, North Pacific (western, tropical, • northeastern), North America • 3. Develop Prototype Operational Products • Smart climo process for use by forecasters • Regional narratives based on climate variations • Operational impacts assessments • In progress: • climate indices for SWA • statistical climate forecasts for SWA • web-based delivery with updated climate monitoring • Transition Products to DoD Operational Centers. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Smart Climatology – Research Products Mechanisms that Lead to Above Normal Precip and Temp in SWA Above Normal Precip and Temp L Below Normal Tropical Convection H • Typical low level anomaly pattern during above normal precip and temp in SWA. • Caused by climate variations and teleconnections (specific phases of El Nino/La Nina, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, Madden-Julian Oscillation, and/or North Atlantic Oscillation). • Climate variation reversal oppositeanomalies in SWA. • Climate variations predictable  SWA precip and temp predictable • In progress: Climate monitoring indices and forecasting systems based on climate variation analyses. From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF, 2006. Advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Smart Climatology – Research Products Impacts of Multiple Climate Variations Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Only Anomalous Z 200 and long wave patterns, MJO Phase 3, Oct-Mar MJO + El Nino MJO + La Nina • Climate variations alter tropical and extratropical long wave patterns, which in turn alter synoptic activity • Simultaneous climate variations interfere with each other. • Major interference over regions of DoD interest (SWA, East Asia, CONUS). • Multivariate analysis and forecasting required. From NPS thesis research by Capt A. Stepanek, USAF, 2006. Advisors: T. Murphree and C. Wash. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Smart Climatology – Prototype Operational Products Camp Lemonier U.S. Embassy http://maps.google.com/ http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/united_states.html “Noncombatant evacuation operations (NEOs) are conducted to assist the Department of State (DOS) in evacuating noncombatants, nonessential military personnel, selected host-nation citizens, and third country nationals whose lives are in danger from locations in a host foreign nation to an appropriate safe haven and/or the United States. NEOs usually involve swift insertions of a force, temporary occupation of an objective, and a planned withdrawal upon completion of the mission.” JP3-07.5, “Joint Tactics, Techniques and Procedures for Noncombatant Evacuation Operations” • Scenario/Assumptions: Intel estimates indicate that the potential exists for a military coup in Ethiopia, which would necessitate the rapid evacuation of 150+ embassy personnel, plus an equal number of U.S. civilian expatriates (students, businesspeople). The USCENTCOM METOC (USAF O3) is tasked to develop a climatological assessment for a possible NEO during the Oct-Nov timeframe. A NEO CONPLAN is in development. The O3 recently read an NPS thesis discussing climate variations and military impacts in the HOA, and decides to use it as a guide for the assessment. • Intermediate Staging Base (ISB)/Safe Haven: Camp Lemonier, Djibouti, alternate USN ship. • Forces: MH53 Pave Lows, C130, RQ1-B Predator UAVs plus tankers & ground operations support From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF, 2006. Advisors: T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Smart Climatology – Prototype Operational Products Typical:October–November is the “short rains” season in the Horn of Africa, characterized by extensive cloud decks, showers and isolated, afternoon thunderstorms. For typical years in the Addis Ababa area, moderate impacts to collections and RQ1B operations are assessed in October and early November, improving to mostly favorable after the mid-November end of the rainy season. RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier are assessed as favorable overall, with occasional impacts from afternoon crosswinds and extreme afternoon temperatures exceeding operational thresholds. El Nino:A strong El Nino event would tend to increase showers, cloud cover and thunderstorm activity in October-November. ISR impacts will tend to worse than in the typical year. Assessment for ISR is moderate to occasionally unfavorable. Assessment of RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier remains the same as in typical years. La Nina:A strong La Nina event would tend to suppress showers, cloud cover and thunderstorm activity during Oct-Nov. ISR impacts will tend to general improvement over typical years. Assessment for ISR is the same as for the typical year, but expect thunderstorm and shower frequency to decrease. Assessment of RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier remains the same as in typical years. Legend • Cloud cover 2. Precipitation 3. Winds 4. Temperature From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF, 2006. Advisors: T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Smart Climatology – Prototype Operational Products • Sample prototype product developed by students for NPS climo course project on development and use of climo forecasts. • Impacts assessments based on climo forecasts complicated by uncertainties in climate forecasts and translation of forecasts to impacts. Thresholds based on AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13 June 2003. Red = worse than normal, white = normal, green = better than normal. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Smart Climatology – Forecaster Process Process for generating smart climatology products for military customers. Details and applications in NPS thesis by Maj. Mark LaJoie, USAF (2006). From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF, 2006. Advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Smart Climatology – Product Development & Applications Assess normal conditions (LTMs) Identify climate variations Create state-of-the-art climo analyses and forecasts based on blend of normal conditions and variations Translate analyses and forecasts to operational impacts Provide on-demand access via SIPR/NIPR Provide tailored input to improve long range planning Provide climo input to improve weather analysis and forecasting tools Support combatant commander decision making (all levels) • Many elements already exist in basic form, but smart climo components are missing. • Planned but not shown: verification processes and user feedback. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Partners in Smart Climo Education, Research, & Development • NPS Faculty • Climatology education (intro and advanced courses) • R&D expertise • Develop collaborations, obtain funding • Provide long term program leadership • NPS Students • Operational experience • Course projects • Thesis research • Labor costs (already covered) • Future operational partners • Operational Partners • Operational requirements and capabilities • Partners in identifying problems and potential solutions • Sources of data and R&D expertise • Transitioning partners • Test beds and feedback Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

NPS Smart Climatology Reports Reports available to view and download at: http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/ Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Contact Information Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Department of Meteorology Naval Postgraduate School 254 Root Hall, 589 Dyer Road Monterey, CA 93943-5114 831-656-2723 commercial 756-2723 DSN 831-656-3061 fax murphree@nps.edu jtmurphr@nps.navy.smil.mil http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/ http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/metrics/metrics_reports.html Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Back-Up and Background Discussion Slides Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Overview NPS Smart Climatology Program Tom Murphree, Ph.D. The typical process of developing military climatology products relies heavily on traditional methods of climate analysis, and excludes many modern methods of climate analysis and forecasting. This means that very few military climatology products account for climate variations (e.g., El Nino, Madden-Julian Oscillation), or for the many advances over the last 30 years in climate data sets, monitoring, analysis, modeling, and forecasting. Thus, Air Force Weather and Naval METOC units, and the combatant commanders they serve, lack state-of-the-art climatological support. To address this shortcoming, we are conducting a long term program to develop, adapt, and transition to operational use systems for developing state-of-the-art military climatology, also known as smart climatology. Our goal is to assist in closing the gap between (a) present climatological support for military operations and (b) the support that is achievable through the application of modern methods of climate analysis and forecasting. Because of the wide application of climatology in the development of both climate and weather products, we expect smart climatology products to benefit combatant commanders at all planning levels (strategic, operational, and tactical). The primary goals of our smart climatology program are to: (1) develop scientific products for use in developing operational products; (2) develop operational planning products based on the scientific products; and (3) deliver scientific and operational products via a web-based (net-centric) platform. Our primary scientific products are analyses of the regional atmospheric and oceanic impacts of climate variations (e.g., El Nino, La Nina, Madden-Julian Oscillation, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, North Atlantic Oscillation). The focus regions for our work thus far are southwest Asia (SWA), the Horn of Africa, east Asia, the western tropical North Pacific, the northeast Pacific, and North America. Our main operational products are prototype assessments of operational impacts derived from: (a) our climate analyses; and (b) applying a set of forecaster guidelines that we have developed for providing smart climatology support. We have recently begun a climate forecasting effort based on our climate analyses for SWA and using composite analysis methods. We are currently developing web-based methods of product delivery. Our program is based on a collaboration of Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) faculty and staff, Air Force and Navy students at NPS, and climate research and development contractors. We are also coordinating and collaborating in our smart climatology efforts with the Air Force Combat Climatology Center, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Detachment Asheville, and civilian colleagues in climate research and operational climatology. Reports on our program are available at: http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/reports.php For more information on the NPS Smart Climatology Program, please contact the program director, Dr. Tom Murphree at: murphree@nps.edu Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Definitions Traditional Climatology Climatology that focuses on long term means, especially the description of long term mean (LTM) seasonal cycles. Traditional climatology deals little, or not at all, with variations from the long term. Modern Climatology Climatology that addresses LTM patterns and climate variation patterns, with a focus on describing both the patterns and the processes that drive those patterns. The study of climate processes includes the development and application of methods for monitoring, modeling, and forecasting the climate system. Examples of climate variations: El Nino La Nina-Southern Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Traditional Climatology Versus Modern Climatology The reliance on LTMs to describe the climate system means that traditional climatology is unable to account for climate variations that can significantly alter the state of the climate system and impact deployment planning and combat operations (e.g., weapons selection, force positioning, and operational planning). The focus on patterns rather than processes means that traditional climatology contributes relatively little to the dynamical understanding of LTM patterns, or to the analysis and forecasting of climate variations. Thus modern climatology provides a more comprehensive view of the climate system and is much better suited than traditional climatology for supporting combatant commanders. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Climatology in Support of Combatant Commanders Problem DoD climatology products are based almost exclusively on traditional climatology. This means combatant commanders have far fewer useful climo products than are available in the civilian sector or that could be readily adapted for DoD use. Approach to Solving Problem Adapt and apply modern, or smart, climo methods and products for use by combatant commanders (e.g., adapt and apply climate analysis and forecasting methods and products used in civilian sector). Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Smart Climatology = Modern Climatology Smart Climatology Climatology that includes LTMs but also accounts for: a. higher order statistics than the LTM b. modern developments in climate science and operational climatology By this definition, smart climatology could also be called modern climatology. Modern climatology is an apt term, since DoD climatology is way behind the times. Civilian climatology is far more advanced than military climatology, in terms of: 1. climate science 2. development and application of operational climatology methods and products This lag in DoD climatology has created significant gaps in climatological support for war fighters. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Statement of Problem • Warfighters are not getting the full benefit of proven operational • climatological data and methods because: • 1. DoD climatology is behind the times. • 2. Long term mean climatology is not sufficient for DoD planning and operations. • 3. Information is often not: (a) up to date; and/or (b) available at sufficient spatial / temporal resolution for area or period of interest. • 4. A lot of very relevant climo information, methods, and products are not yet readily available to METOC personnel or their customers. • a. not yet adapted for military use • b. no central, easily accessible source • 5. It is difficult to translate climo information into environmental impacts on operations, and such translations are rarely provided in off-the-shelf climo products. • 6. METOC units must interpret available climo information to fit their individual needs. • a. too time consuming and labor intensive • b. much of this tailoring would be more efficient and • effective if done by experts at a central location • c. units’ time is better spent tailoring smart climo to the needs • of combatant commanders Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Needed: Smart Climatology Capabilities • 1. Need environmental data from multiple sources that are physically consistent and up-to-date (e.g., latest observations and forecasts available for inclusion in climo products). • 2. Need higher spatial and temporal resolution. Most climo products, especially ocean products, have poor or marginal resolutions. • 3. Need a web based, readily accessible, interactive system for analyzing, displaying, and down loading climo information for the global environment. System needs extensive user functions (e.g., analysis functions for compositing, differencing, correlating; display functions for generating time series, layering data, GIS output). • 4. Need to be able to readily account for climate variations and climate forecasts (e.g., El Nino / La Nina, North Atlantic Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation, etc.). Presently, almost all DoD climo support is based on just LTMs. • Need to feed smart climo to models that currently use only traditional climatology (e.g., LTMs as initial or expected extreme conditions). • Need system for objectively assessing climatological risks and opportunities for war fighters. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

NPS Smart Climatology Products • The following slides show examples of the types of products that are being, • and could be, generated using smart climatology methods. • These examples include: • Scientific products for METOC personnel to use in developing operational climo products • Operational planning products based on the scientific products • These sample products were developed by: • NPS students as part of the NPS climatology courses • NPS students as part of their thesis research • NPS faculty • DoD needs to develop smart climo products with the breadth, depth, and • formats appropriate for METOC personnel and the combatant commander they • support (e.g., products for NSW and ASW operations in key regions). • Additional examples of our smart climo work can be found at: • http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smart-climo/reports.php • Contact me for examples of classified smart climatology products that • we’ve developed at NPS, and for updates on our on-going work on climate • monitoring and forecasting for southwest Asia. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Impacts of Climate Variations on Tropical Cyclone Activity: East Asia and Western North Pacific, October H L Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06 L H L H H L Upper tropospheric height anomalies associated with El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) periods. These height anomalies indicate anomalies in steering flow for tropical cyclones (TCs)., with more recurving TCs during EN and more straight runners during LN. This indicates that, for example, Taiwan (Korea) is more likely to be hit by TCs during LN (EN) years. NPS researchers have shownthat TC formation sites, tracks, and intensities are affected by EN and LN climate variations that are not accounted for in LTM climatologies. Figures from Ford, B., 2000. El Nino and La Nina Events, and Tropical Cyclones: Impacts and Mechanisms. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree.

Impacts of Climate Variations on Joint Operations: Straits of Taiwan, October Green = favorable for indicated operations / mission Yellow = marginal for indicated operation / mission *Conditions slightly improved for NE Taiwan due to decreased monsoonal flow. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06 Slide from NPS climatology course

Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products: Western North Pacific, Winter Upper Ocean Currents, Nov-Mar, Long Term Mean 15 cm/s Note LTM poleward coastal currents along China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea. From Ford and Murphree (2006) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products: Western North Pacific, Winter Upper Ocean Current Anomalies, Nov-Mar, During -SOI Periods 6 cm/s Note substantial strengthening with respect to LTM of coastal currents along China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Note: -SOI periods  El Nino periods From Ford and Murphree (2006) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products: Arabian Gulf, Winter Upper Ocean Currents, Nov-Mar, Long Term Mean Note LTM inflow in Arabian Gulf, Gulf Of Oman. 1 cm/s From Ford and Murphree (2006) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products: Arabian Gulf, Winter Upper Ocean Current Anomalies, Nov-Mar, During +SOI Periods Note reversal of LTM inflow in Gulf Of Oman. Note: +SOI periods  La Nina periods 3 cm/s From Ford and Murphree (2006) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Use of Ocean Modeling to Develop Smart Climo Products: California Current System, Winter Model LN Currents Model EN Currents Figures from: Feldmeier, J., 2005. Climatic Variations of the California Current System: Application of Smart Climatology to the Coastal Ocean. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, September 2005. Advisors: Profs. T. Murphree and R. Tokmakian. a b Model LN Current Anomaly Model EN Current Anomaly c d Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products in Mission Planning Process Scenario: In the event of heightened tensions with North Korea, a squadron of F-15s from Elmendorf AFB, AK will need to deploy on short notice to Gwangju AB, ROK. Their refueling aircraft will be a pair of KC-10s from Travis AFB, CA. The expected launch window is July. The fighters will have to refuel 7 times en route and must avoid areas of solid cloud and moderate or greater turbulence. Task: Provide climatological support for mission planning. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06 Slide from NPS climatology course

Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products in Mission Planning Process Mean Percent Total Cloud Cover From RTNEPH, July LTM, Base Period 1984-2001. Image sources: AF Combat Climatology Center: https://notus2.afccc.af.mil/scis/ Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06 Climatological Impacts on F-15 Squadron Deployment Over North Pacific in July Slide from NPS climatology course • Launch / Divert Bases • Thunderstorms, lightning, low ceilings likely at Elmendorf AFB • Fog/stratus along coast likely to inhibit morning tanker take-offs from Travis AFB, CA, diverts on US west coast • Air Refueling • Clouds likely to impede refueling along storm track • Winds much weaker at flight level, thus decreasing turbulence risk

Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products in Mission Planning Process Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06 Slide from NPS climatology course Climatological Impacts on ISR Operations Over Korean Peninsula in July • Key climatological factors for Korea in July (see accompanying maps of SLP, Z850, chi, OLR, • clouds, and precipitation): • Low level low over China, high over North Pacific • Warm moist inflow from the south along boundary between low and high Reference for METOC Criteria : JP 3-59. Joint Doctrine, Tactics, Techniques, and Procedure for Meteorological and Oceanographic Support. 23 Mar. 1999.

Use of Intraseasonal Climate Anomalies and Forecasts in Mission Planning Process Manas IAP Incirlik AB Bagram AB Herat Kandahar Slide from NPS climatology course AR ‘B’ Map courtesy of the AFCCC Strategic Climatic Information Service Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06 Scenario:Operation Thanksgiving Pain Mission: Provide climo support for night time aerial operations to destroy large terrorist training camp in Afghanistan. Missions will launch from bases in Turkey, Diego Garcia, and Afghanistan. Launch Window: 19-28 Nov 2004 Lead time: One month Diego Garcia

Slide from NPS climatology course Thresholds based on AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13 June 2003 Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Use of Intraseasonal Climate Anomalies and Forecasts in Mission Planning Process Manas IAP c x v c x v Incirlik AB c x v Bagram AB Herat Kandahar c x v Slide from NPS climatology course - More southerly storm track will result in possible takeoff delays for tankers leaving Incirlik - Tankers leaving Incirlik will see increased turbulence over Iraq and the northern Persian Gulf - Manas can expect increased precipitation - Bagram will see increased frequency of low ceilings and low visibility as well as crosswinds that may hinder Predator ops - Visibility for helos out of Kandahar will potentially be adversely affected by low clouds enroute; result: potential mission cancellation AR ‘B’ Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06 No expected enroute weather impacts Expected enroute weather impacts to airframe may require mission rescheduling Enroute weather impacts exceed allowed criteria; reschedule mission c Ceiling Visibility Crosswinds c x v v x Diego Garcia

Responding to Combatant Commander Needs: Intraseasonal-Interannual Climate Anomalies and Forecasts Precip Fig From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; 2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Heavy Precipitation and Flooding, Afghanistan and Pakistan, 1-15 February 2005 • Precipitation, temperature, snowmelt, and runoff anomalies had large impacts on DoD operations. Led to combatant commanders requesting climate predictions for SWA. • Occurred during strong, persistent subsidence phase of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the eastern IO. • Investigated role of MJO and other climate variations in producing SWA climate anomalies. Winds, Moist Adv Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Smart Climatology Analysis Heavy Precipitation and Flooding, Afghanistan & Pakistan, 1-15 Feb 2005 Wind and Specific Humidity Anomalies, 850 hPa, 1-15Feb05 R-K response, moist onshore flow H low convection • Precip, temp, and other anomalies in SWA caused by anomalously onshore flow from south, and warm, moisture air advection. • Wind and advection anomalies caused by Rossby-Kelvin wave response to low convection over maritime continent due to MJO. From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; 2006. Advisors: T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Smart Climatology Analysis Wind & Specific Humidity Anomalies at 850 hPa When MJO Convective Component is in Eastern IO Convection • Note offshore wind and low moisture anomalies over and near SWA. • Opposite anomalies when convective component is in eastern IO. From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; 2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Smart Climatology Analysis Precipitation and Surface Temperature Anomalies When Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Convective Component is in Eastern IO • Due to circulation anomalies shown in prior slide, SWA tends to be drier • and cooler than normal. • Result of cool, dry continental air advected from Asia. • Opposite anomalies when convective component is in eastern IO. From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; 2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Smart Climo and Regime Based Forecasting Smart climo gives you a better insight into the large scale (continental scale to global scale) patterns and processes that, to a large extent, govern the development of the regimes. Climate dynamics governs the uppermost portion of the forecast funnel. So, you can do a better job of analyzing and forecasting synoptic and mesoscale circulations when you understand the low frequency, large scale dynamics that are the subject of climate dynamics. For example, when you understand the tropical climate variations that excite changes in the extratropical Rossby wave field, that in turn lead to changes in extratropical long wave patterns, that then alter synoptic and mesoscale circulations and regimes. A smart climo approach could contribute a fair bit to improving regime based forecasting methods. Many climate variations have well established regimes of their own (often described in terms of teleconnections patterns and processes) that climate-oriented weather forecasters already use in developing medium range forecasts. NWS extended range forecast discussions based on EN, LN, and MJO are one example of this. Many climate variations have known tendencies to make certain medium range and synoptic patterns more or less likely (e.g., tendencies to develop high zonal index flows, blocking patterns, persistent warm moist advection, etc.). Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Smart Climo and Regime Based Forecasting The mechanisms by which climate variations set up these patterns is often an alteration of the upper tropospheric long wave pattern (shifts in location, changes in wave length and amplitude, etc.), changes in the low level eddies and circulation (e.g., Siberian High, Aleutian Low, Azores High), and associated low level WAA, CAA, moisture advection, moisture convergence, etc. The Stepanek and Vorhee's theses provide some nice tropical and extratropical examples of this. The connection between synoptic and climate processes is also a two-way street (e.g., EN affects the intensity and recurvature of tropical cyclones in the NW Pac, which leads to anomalies in the extratropical long wave pattern over the N America, which alters synoptic systems there). Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Smart Climo and Regime Based Forecasting There are a variety of smart climo based tools that could be used to improve how regime concepts are used in forecasting. Compositing and principal components could be used to identify the major regime signals associated with climate variations (including their relative amplitudes and phasing). Here, by regime signal, I mean the regimes that are forced by and characteristic of a given climate variations, and the fluctuations of regimes that are separate from but affected by the climate variations. By climate variation, I'm thinking of phenomena such as EN, LN, IOZM, MJO, NAO, but also of simpler, more generic variations such as changes in the zonal index of the extratropical upper tropospheric flow. Cluster analysis could be used to identify the most probable sequencing of the major regime signals (see Jeff's discussion of solutions A, B, and C, below). A variety of other tools could be used to identify the relationships between a given regime and a larger scale variation, and the predictability of the regime given the existence of the variation. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

NPS Course Description Modern Climatology, MR 3610 Quarter Units: 4 Instructor: Prof. Tom Murphree Introductory investigation of Earth’s climate system. Long term mean temporal and spatial patterns, and seasonal cycles at global, regional, and local scales, with an emphasis on areas of DoD interest. Dynamic and thermodynamic processes that govern the climate system (e.g., atmosphere-ocean-land interactions, large scale, low frequency waves, teleconnections). Intraseasonal to decadal climate variations (e.g., anomalous temperature, pressure, and precipitation patterns; Madden-Julian Oscillation; El Nino/La Nina/Southern Oscillation; North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation). Impacts of climate variations on weather systems, and the role of climatology in weather analysis and forecasting. Introduction to the use of climatology in planning and conducting military operations with case studies from regions of DoD interest. Some aspects of this course may require that students have a secret clearance. The course focuses on the atmospheric component of the climate system, but also addresses the oceanic component at some length. The oceanic and/or land components will be addressed in greater depth if there is sufficient student interest. Pre-requisites: MR 3321 and 3222 (or equivalent courses form another university), a more advanced course (e.g., MR 3234, MR 3252), or consent of instructor. Copies of course materials available on request Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

NPS Course Description AdvancedClimatology, MR 4250 Quarter Units: 3 Instructor: Prof. Tom Murphree This course addresses advanced topics in operational climatology and military applications of climatology. The topics may vary with each offering, especially in response to student interests. Topics include: (1) statistical, dynamical, and numerical modeling methods used in operational climate analysis and forecasting; (2) advanced analyses of regional and local climate patterns and processes in areas of DoD interest; (3) strategic implications of long term global climate change; (4) role of climatology in strategic to tactical level planning of military operations; (5) assessments of NOAA, Air Force, and Navy climatology methods and products; (6) evaluation of joint military climatology planning tools; and (7) student development of climatology products and planning tools based on civilian and military methods and products. For fall 2006, one of the main topics will be Southwest Asia climate, especially climatological patterns and processes, interactions between weather and climate phenomena, and climate predictions, in particular, predictions for military operations. This course places a strong emphasis on the applications of climate science to military operations. Some aspects of this course may require that students have a secret clearance. The course focuses on the atmospheric component of the climate system, but also addresses the oceanic component at some length. The oceanic and/or land components will be addressed in greater depth if there is sufficient student interest. Pre-requisites: MR 3321 and 3222 (or equivalent courses form another university), a more advanced course (e.g., MR 3234, MR 3252), or consent of instructor. Students are also strongly encouraged, but are not required, to take MR 3610 before MR 4250. Copies of course materials available on request Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Sep 06

Smart Climatology: Methods and Products Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)