Contribution of Vehicle Safety and Infrastructure Investment in Reducing Road Trauma in Victoria

1. Contribution of vehicle safety improvements and infrastructure investment on reducing road trauma in Victoria and projected future benefits Angelo D’Elia & Stuart Newstead 2015 Australasian Road Safety Conference, Gold Coast

2. Background • Two major road safety program areas that have made significant contributions to the reduction of road trauma under the Safe System are: • vehicle safety • infrastructure improvements • In Victoria over the past 10 years there have been: • increasing improvement in the safety of the vehicle fleet • significant investment in safer road infrastructure

3. Vehicle fleet safety improvements • Early improvements can be attributed to the introduction of Australian Design Rules (ADRs) for passenger vehicles with standards covering: • seatbelt fitment • energy-absorbing steering columns • head restraints • improved cabin strength Volvo V50

4. Vehicle fleet safety improvements • More recent vehicle secondary safety improvements include: • seatbelt pre-tensioners • anti-whiplash seats • active head restraints • frontal, side and knee airbags • Such improvements translate into improvements in the average safety of the light vehicle fleet as a whole over time as older vehicles are removed from the fleet and safer new vehicles enter the fleet Subaru WRX

5. Infrastructure improvements • Major investment in road infrastructure was announced in Victoria in 2004 through the TAC funded Safer Road Infrastructure Program (SRIP) • SRIP aimed to reduced deaths and serious injuries through infrastructure improvements on arterial roads • It was implemented in 3 stages with development and delivery of the program managed by VicRoads Wire rope barrier on country roads

6. Safer Road Infrastructure Program (SRIP) • Stage 1 (2004-2008) delivered 113 projects focused on run-off-road and intersection crashes at a cost of $130 million. • Run-off-road treatments included: • shoulder sealing • safety barriers (wire rope barriers and/or guard fences) • tactile lines Shoulder sealing

7. Safer Road Infrastructure Program (SRIP) • Stage 2 (2006-2008) delivered 252 projects at a cost of $110 million continuing with run-off-road treatments and expanding the focus on intersection treatments • Stage 3 (from 2007) is delivering projects to the value of $650 million over a ten year period and also includes treatments at: • 40 km/h shopping strips • school zones • grey spots such as Y intersections 40 km/h shopping strip

8. Analysis aims • The objective of the analysis to be presented was: • to estimate the individual impact on overall road trauma of: • improvements in the light vehicle fleet • major investment in safer infrastructure through SRIP investment • to project or forecast their future benefits

9. Basis for the analysis • The analysis was based on previous research evaluating the effects of each of these countermeasure areas on road trauma • This includes estimation of the road trauma impacts of: • the changing composition of the light vehicle fleet on annual observed road trauma in Australia • the SRIP program through a comprehensive evaluation of each stage The conference paper provides details of this research and the assumptions made to estimate the impact of each road safety program on road trauma

10. Data and models • Fatality and serious injury data (SI) was extracted from VicRoads’ Road Crash Information System (RCIS) with SI data validated against TAC claims data • Time series models were estimated for the period 2006 to 2014 with separate models for fatalities and serious injuries • These models were then used to produce forecasts of future trends in deaths and injuries to 2025

11. Summary of method • The effect of vehicle safety and infrastructure improvements on reducing fatalities and serious injuries over the period 2006 to 2014 was estimated based on previous research • Observed fatalities and serious injuries for 2006 to 2014 were each adjusted to give the expected time series had each program NOT been implemented  residual time series • Forecasts from 2015 to 2025 were then made on the residual time series to estimate expected future road trauma had vehicle safety and infrastructure improvements NOT happened • The impact of vehicle safety improvements and planned future SRIP investment on future trauma reductions were estimated for 2015 to 2025 • These estimates were then applied to the forecast residual time series to give the expected future road trauma trends from 2015 to 2025

12. Observed fatalities 2006-2014

13. Residual fatalities 2006-2014

14. Forecast residual fatalities 2015-2025 Residual time series

15. Forecast fatalities 2015-2025 Residual time series Observed

16. Observed serious injuries 2006-2014

17. Residual serious injuries 2006-2014

18. Forecast residual serious injuries 2015-2025 Residual time series

19. Forecast serious injuries 2015-2025 Residual time series Observed

20. Discussion • Residual time series are driven by all other factors influencing road trauma apart from vehicle safety trends and SRIP improvements • these factors might include exposure effects such as population growth; travel mode shifts; changing behaviour; other road safety programs • Forecastswere constructed on the premise that the underlying factors driving the variation in the data continue to act as they have in the past

21. Conclusions • Improvements in vehicle safety and major investment in infrastructure have been very successful in achieving significant savings in death and serious injury • Without these two major programs, fatalities and serious injuries in Victoria would have continued to rise over the past decade • Projected future benefits of these key road safety program areas highlight how critically important it is to continue to invest in proven road safety programs if the benefits achieved thus far are to continue going forward • The ongoing issue of serious injury trauma will require particular focus

22. Questions?