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This presentation by Andrew Morrison of the Inter-American Development Bank in 2002 explores the interplay of violence, inequality, and poverty in the Americas. It delves into homicide rates, domestic violence prevalence, economic costs, and policy responses. The presentation discusses shorthand measures of violence and highlights the impact of inequality on crime rates. It emphasizes the significance of poverty and income distribution in contributing to violence. The study evaluates the economic costs of violence in selected Latin American countries and outlines the elements of the IDB's response strategy.
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Violence, Inequality and Poverty in the Americas Presentation to the Poverty Reduction Network Andrew Morrison Inter-American Development Bank November 11, 2002
Are there any good shorthand measures of violence? • Homicides? • Intra-family violence?
Homicide rates by world region, 2000 Source: WHO, 2002. World Report on Violence
WORLD HOMICIDE RATE (per 100,000 persons) 10 8.86 9 8 7 6.35 5.93 5.82 6 5.47 5 1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 Source: M. Buvinic & A. Morrison, 2000. “Living in a Violent World”, Foreign Policy #118.
Low, medium and high violence countries: mid 1990s Source: WHO. 2002. World Report on Violence
PREVALENCE OF DOMESTIC VIOLENCE IN LATIN AMERICA Percentage of women victimized by physical violence, 1996-1997 Chile Nicaragua Paraguay Colombia Perú Note: various sources.
Inequality matters World Bank study (Fajnzylber, Lederman and Loayza) • 34 countries, 1970-1994, yearly data. • Identify determinants of homicide and robbery rates • Inequality matters: • increase in Gini leads to increase in both homicide rate and robbery rates; • larger increase in long run because of inertia • Level of GDP per capita is not statistically significant, but growth rate is 5% drop in GDP increases robbery rate by 50%
And poverty? • Not explicitly included in World Bank study • Exploratory econometric analysis by Londoño y Guerrero on determinants of homicide rates for 17 countries, 1970-1995 • poverty does matter; so does income distribution • confirmed for recent analysis of “delitos contra el patrimonio económico” in Colombia (Yepes Delgado, 2000)
ECONOMIC COSTS OF VIOLENCE IN SELECTED LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES* * % of GDP Source: Juan Luis Londoño. 1998. “Epidemiología económica de la violencia urbana”
61% less Mean monthly earnings in Santiago, 1997 US$ 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 With abuse Without abuse Earnings impact of severe physical violence against women
Elements of the IDB’s response • Not all violence is the same • Undertake serious situational diagnostic • Focus on risk factors • Emphasize prevention, but recognize that control is essential • Evaluate, evaluate, evaluate • Loan projects approved to-date: Colombia, El Salvador, Jamaica, Uruguay Many intra-family violence TCs
SERIOUS CRIMES AVOIDED PER MILLION DOLLARS SPENT, CALIFORNIA (1998) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Home visits Family support Graduation incentives Intensive supervision Three strikes law Source: Greenwood, Peter. 1998.