Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat, Philip V. Fellman, & Pard Teekasap

1. Uncovering the Linkages in Maritime Piracy Networks: Developmental Dynamics and Visualization of Network Data Dinorah Frutos, Thanarerk Thanakijsombat, Philip V. Fellman, & Pard Teekasap Southern New Hampshire University International Business Modeling Laboratory

2. Nature and Severity of the Threat Pirate Attacks are Largely Confined to 4 Major Areas

3. Piracy is Increasing • In 2009, maritime piracy reached its highest level since the IMB's Piracy Reporting Center began tracking piracy incidents in 1992, surpassing levels from 2008, which was the previous record year. Of the forty-nine successful hijackings in 2008, forty-two occurred off the coast of Somalia, including the capture of an oil supertanker, the Sirius Star. • In 2009, that number rose to forty-seven, despite reduced global shipping and a multi-country naval military force aimed at stemming piracy in the region. • Overall attacks off the coast of Somalia represented about half of all maritime piracy globally according to the IMB. Though Somalia gets the lion's share of attention on global piracy, the IMB says incidents off the coast of Nigeria, which largely involve robberies rather than hijackings, were more likely to include violence against the crew than anywhere else in the world in 2009. In other areas of the world, including Indonesia, piracy dropped.

5. Historical Attacks on Vessels Underway

6. Attack Detail 1998-2008

7. Methodology: Initial Approach - Social Network Analysis • Data Visualization based on arrays of network nodes and vertices • Differentiation between small world and random networks • “Cleaning up” IMO raw data to eliminate data points below the threshold of interest. • Development of a seven point ordinal scale for severity of attacks.

8. Total Density = 0.6458 Two-Mode Network: Time and Location of Maritime Piracy attacks in 1998

9. Two-Mode Network: Time and Location of Maritime Piracy attacks in 2003 Total Density = 0.6759

10. Total Density = 0.7000 Two-Mode Network: Time and Location of Maritime Piracy attacks for 2008 (October)

11. Maritime Piracy Severity Index

12. Small World Networks: Formal Definitions(Clustering Coefficients)From Some Considerations on Six Degrees of Separation from A Theoretical Point of ViewNorihito ToyotaarXiv.org > physics > arXiv:0803.2399

13. Output of Network Analysis for the Connection Between Location and Intensity of Piracy Attacks

14. Output of Network Analysis for the Connection Between Location and Weapon Type Employed in Piracy Attacks

15. Output of Network Analysis for the Connection Between Location and Number of Pirates Engaged in the Attack

16. Limitations of the Study • Difficult to determine whether piracy in fact connects significantly with terrorism outside a formal legal definition (Maritime Terrorism – Risk and Liability, Rand Corp. 2006) http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2006/RAND_MG520.pdf • Increase In Piracy And Terrorism At Sea; Little Evidence Supports Fear That The Two Crimes Are Merging: The Maritime Dimension of International Security Terrorism, Piracy, and Challenges for the United States (Rand Corp. 2008 http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG697/ • Piracy Is Terrorism, Published: Dec December 5, 2008 • AT FIRST GLANCE, THE CORRELATION BETWEEN PIRACY AND TERRORISM seems a stretch. Yet much of the basis of this skepticism can be traced to romantic and inaccurate notions about piracy. An examination of the actual history of the crime reveals startling, even astonishing, parallels to contemporary international terrorism. Viewed in its proper historical context, piracy emerges as a clear and powerful precedent.

17. Ideal Comparative Methodology:The Developmental Dynamics of Terrorist OrganizationsAaron Clauset and Kristian Skrede GleditschThe Santa Fe Institute • This study employs open source data on frequency and severity of terrorist attacks • Worldwide database of 3,143 fatal attacks • Calendar Date, Severity and Name of Organization if known (341 Organizations Identified) • The study quantifies the frequency and severity of a group’s attacks over its lifetime using a normalized development curve.

19. Terrorist Attacks – Developmental Curves for Individual Organizations: Cumulative Frequency Increases

20. Land-Based Terrorist Events: Expected Intensity Does Not Increase over time -- Cumulative Damage is only a product of the overall number of incidents, not of increasing severity Observed vs. Expected Severity Cumulative Severity of Events

21. Comparative Findings Between Patterns of Maritime Piracy and Land Based Terrorism • Because we don’t have clear group identifiers as do Clauset and Gleditsch we segmented our data into the four main clusters of activity. • While they observed a developmental curve in the activity of land-based terrorist organizations with respect to frequency of attacks, our analysis of the data did not find a similar curve for frequency and both groups failed to exhibit such a curve for intensity of attacks.

22. Intensity of Attacks (Number of Attacks) Based on Intensity of Attack Index

23. Somalia (1998-2008) ∆t (days) Cumulative Number of Attacks on Vessels Underway

24. Malacca Straits (1998-2008) ∆t (days) Cumulative Number of Attacks on Vessels Underway

25. Indonesia (1998-2010) ∆t (days) Cumulative Number of Attacks on Vessels Underway

26. Nigeria (1998-2008) ∆t (days) Cumulative Number of Attacks on Vessels Underway

27. Piracy Follows Seasonal Patterns • However, for each region, there is a seasonality pattern based on the frequency of the attacks • The following charts show the longitudinal data for the seasonal frequency of attacks for Somalia, Malacca Straits, Indonesia, and Nigeria.

28. Somalia

29. Malacca Straits

30. Indonesia

31. Nigeria

32. Conclusion • It is difficult to make strong inferences about the behavior of piracy organizations, even using advanced tools of statistical physics similar to those used to model sunspot activity. • The observed behavioral regularities still require additional research.