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Alaska Visibility Analysis

Alaska Visibility Analysis. Ou Nopmongcol and Ralph Morris RTOWG Update Call 6 August 2019. Ramboll Scope of work. Project Goal : Develop alternative glidepaths that account for international anthropogenic contributions.

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Alaska Visibility Analysis

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  1. Alaska Visibility Analysis • Ou Nopmongcol and Ralph Morris • RTOWG Update Call • 6 August 2019

  2. Ramboll Scope of work Project Goal : Develop alternative glidepaths that account for international anthropogenic contributions • Two GEOS-Chem simulations performed by University of Alaska at Fairbanks • 2016 Base Case • 2016 Scenario with all anthropogenic emissions outside the U.S. set to zero (Zero Out Rest of World run; ZROW) • Conduct model performance evaluation • Develop alternative glidepaths using EPA’s SMAT/MATS software

  3. IMPROVE sites • Denali • Trapper Creek • Kenai Peninsula Borough Simeonof

  4. GEOS-Chem 2016 Setup • Version 12.1.0 • 2x2.5 degree resolution; 47 layers • Out-of-the-box emission inventories • Output daily average concentrations

  5. Uniform Rate of Progress (URP) Glidepath

  6. EPA’s Approach to address international Anthropogenic Source contributions ∆dv=10 ln [(bextnatural +bextint’ anthro)/bextnatural] SMAT analysis calculates bextint’ anthro

  7. SMAT (MATS) Analysis Projection (typical): Use PGM modeling results for Base Year (BY, e.g., 2016) and Future Year (FY, e.g., 2028) to scale current years (CYs) IMPROVE PM2.5 concentrations through Relative Response Factors (RRFs) • RRF = PGM(FY) / PGM(BY) • PM2.5(FY) = IMPROVE_PM2.5(CY) x RRF • Separate RRFs for: • Most Impaired and Clearest Days • IMPROVE Site (Class I Area) • PM2.5 Species (SO4, NO3, EC, OMC, PMF and PMC) • Convert to deciview for developing Reasonable Progress Goals (RPGS) comparisons to URP Glide Path

  8. SMAT : Projected ZROW • RRF = PGM(ZROW) / PGM(BY) • PM2.5(ZROW) = IMPROVE_PM2.5{2014-2017} x RRF • Convert PM2.5(ZROW) toBext PM2.5(ZROW) • Bextint’ anthro= Bext IMPROVE_PM2.5{2014-2017} - Bext PM2.5(ZROW) ∆dv2064 =10 ln [(Bextnatural +Bextint’ anthro)/Bextnatural]

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