Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal

The twin challenges facing the world: Energy Security and Climate Change: Hard Choices Ahead United Nations Association March 18th 2011 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey (杜伟贤)M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Reader Emeritus: University of East Anglia

Increasing Occurrence of Drought 2

Increasing Occurrence of Flood 3

Climate Change: Changes in the Artic 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطبالشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه 2003 1979 تغير المناخاثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 • 20% reduction in 24 years • 20 ٪تخفيض في 24 سنوات 4 4 Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

Is Global Warming natural or man-made? • Natural causes • Earth’s Orbit • Sunspot Activity • Volcanic Eruptions • Etc. • Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960 Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period. BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement

Global Surface Temperature • In 2010 we had one of the warmest ever January – February periods. • Some people say surely it was coldest for 30 years • But why do people not account for the record breaking high temperatures in the tropics, Australia etc? • 5th Warmest -

Temperature variations in East Anglia Temperature rise in East Anglia over last 50 years is unequivocal • Winter: October – March: • Summer: April to September • Compared to 1960 – in 2010, • 13.1% less heating needed • And 106% more cooling. 2010 was one a particularly warm year despite cold spells in Europe in January and December NASA says it tied as being warmest www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/.../HQ_11-014_Warmest_Year.htm

What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem? How does UK compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others? France UK Per capita Carbon Emissions 8

Carbon Emissions and Electricity UK France 9

r Electricity Generation i n selected Countries 10

Whether we believe in Climate Change or not Energy Security is a critical issue for the UK Import Gap On 13th Jan 2010: UK Production was only 41%: 14% from storage and 44% imports. In January 2011: Uk Production < 40%

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Completion of Langeled Gas Line to Norway UK becomes net importer of gas Oil reaches $140 a barrel Wholesale Electricity Price surge in January and December 2010 when Gas imports are high. UK Gas Supply @ 11:00am on 15th March 2011 12

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020. ? Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then 13

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from DECC Consultation Document on Electricity Market Reform Jan 2011.

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 28.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Future prices from Electricity Market Reform for Wind or RO/FITs for other technologies

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Electricity Market Reform for Wind or RO/FITs for other technologies

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable • Transport Fuels: • Biodiesel? • Bioethanol? • Compressed gas from • methane from waste. To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require area of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted to biomass Future prices from Electricity Market Reform for Wind or RO/FITs for other technologies

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south Would save 40000 tonnes of CO2 Future prices from Electricity Market Reform for Wind or RO/FITs for other technologies

Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. • Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? • Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS • for around 70% of our heating and electricity • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation We need an integrated energy supply which is diverse and secure. We need to take Energy out of Party Politics.!

How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. 5 hot air balloons per person per year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

Raising Awareness At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai 上海徐汇区高第一小学 • A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2. • 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. • A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year • ~ 500 balloons each year. • Standby on electrical appliances • up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year) • A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. • Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres) • --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for1 hour? 1.6 miles School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

Raising Awareness Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar • Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption • For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much as 9 times. • Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness raising • When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times 28

Average Domestic Consumption of Electricity Raising Awareness - there is wide geographic variation • Consumption of Local Authority Districts, • % of average cost of electricity bills compared to National Average • Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities In Norwich average household emits 1.87 tonnes of CO2 In Uttlesford 3.12 tonnes of CO2

Involving the local Community -The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Annual Solar Gain 826 kWh Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs

Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic Photovoltaic cells are expensive, but integration of ideas is needed. Output depends on orientation and type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. The New Feed In Tariff since April 1st 2010 has made things more attractive. 41.3p per unit generated – an extra 3p if exported. But those who have installed PV will get the benefit from increased payments for electricity by those who have not.

Feed in Tariffs – Introduced 1st April 2010 ** for first 20000 installations Emergency Review for PV > 50kW announced 09/02/2011

Renewable Heat Incentive – Announced 10th March 2011 Note: there are significant changes to the RHI since it was first proposed in March 2010

Ethical Issues The Unbalanced Triangular Trade 0.94 billion people Raw materials 1.33 billion people Aid & Education Products: 478 Mtonnes CO2 increase in 3 years Water issues are equally important. Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of water 1.03 billion people Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years

Conclusions • Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades • Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future. • Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of renewable energy and small changes in behaviour It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. • Global Warming will not only have adverse effects on our brothers and sisters in the developing world, but within the next 10 years we could also be faced with energy shortages unless we act now. • Where would we stand if we had to make the choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room?

And Finally Are you up to the Challenges facing us?: "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." （直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。” LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher Keith Tovey (杜伟贤)M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Reader Emeritus: University of East Anglia k.tovey@uea.ac.uk WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links

Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal