Cultivating Food Security

1. Cultivating Food Security State of the World Worldwatch Institute

2. Security What forces are changing food security today and in the future? Commonly perceived threats include—water and land resources, population growth and social disruption © Digital Vision New emerging threats include— disease, climate change, diversity loss and bio-terror © USDA

3. Commonly Perceived Threats • Water availability • Land distribution • Environmental degradation • Human population growth • Social disruption © Digital Vision

4. Water • Falling water tables • Droughts • Diversion for urban needs and power generation • Pollution © Photos/Digital Vision

5. Water Agriculture accounts for 70% of global water use and as much as 90% in many developing countries

6. Land Availability and Environmental Degradation 80% of arable land worldwide has lost productivity because of soil degradation © USDA

7. Population What can we expect as the world population grows to over 7 billion people? Billion people

8. Social Disruption Conflicts often result in cross-border migrations, lost harvests, and infrastructure collapse—disrupting food security © IRIN

9. Emerging Security Threats • Loss of agricultural diversity • Emergence of new diseases • Food borne illnesses • Food bio-terror • Climate change © WHO

10. Diversity • Genetic information and options • Resilience by spreading risks across a range of species • A varied diet and nutrients What does diversity provide? © USDA © Corbin

11. Plant Diversity • 7,000 plants are used for human consumption • 200 are domesticated • 12 contribute 75% of global intake of plant-derived calories © FAO

12. Meat Diversity • 95% of world consumption of livestock protein is from pigs, poultry, and cattle • There are about 1,000 commercial fish species, but in aquaculture fewer than 10 species dominate global production © USDA © USDA © Digital Vision

13. Diversity & Industrial Agriculture New commercial varieties are replacing traditional, highly variable farmer varieties Vital traditional knowledge about production and adaptation of traditional varieties is disappearing How has industrial agriculture affected diversity? © US/ARS

14. Diversity—What’s Been Lost? FAO estimates that 75% of agricultural diversity was lost during the 20th century • In 50 years, wheat cultivars in China dropped from 10,000 to 1,000 • 90% of cabbage, maize and pea varieties no longer exist • 30% of livestock breeds risk extinction © FAO © CGIAR

15. GMOs What are Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) in agriculture? Plant, animal, and microbial cells are genetically engineered to create specific characteristics such as pest resistance, herbicide resistance, increased milk production, increased shelf life of vegetables, and new plants and livestock for specific environments.

16. GMO Technology What are common GMOs in the food supply? • Herbicide and pest resistant crops like Roundup Ready soybeans • BST an engineered hormone used to increase milk yields in dairy cows • Tomato genes engineered for disease resistance and long shelf life © USDA

17. GMO Risk Factors What are some of the major GMO risk factors? • Contamination of Wild Species • Foreign gene sequences pose unknown risks from cross pollination between conventional crops and their wild relatives • Trojan Gene Effect • An invaded wild population perishes because of the spread of transgenic organisms • Pharm Crops • Insertion of genes into plants to create drugs and industrial chemicals poses risk of genes finding a way from pharm crops into food crops

18. GMOs on a Global Scale Global Area Planted to Transgenic Crop, 1996-2003

19. GMOs and Hunger BUT Hunger is caused by inequalities in purchasing power and the lack of access to land and resources rather than a global shortage of food Can biotechnology and GMOs solve world hunger? Some agricultural scientists hope that GMOs will produce higher than usual yields with less inputs, better yields in a wider range of environments, and more nutritious products

20. Diversity & Food Security What do we risk if agricultural diversity is lost? • Future options are narrowed due to loss of genetic material • Increased susceptibility to disease and pests because of mono-cropping and a limited number of high-producing livestock breeds • Loss of self-sufficiency among farmers on marginal lands who rely on crop diversity to maintain local food production © USDA

21. Emerging Diseases The nature of diseases affecting crops and livestock have changed within the last century • Avian flu • Nipah virus • Mad cow disease • Foodborne pathogens • AIDS/HIV in humans © Photos/EBI bioinformatics

22. Avian Influenza • 6 billion birds are raised for food in East and SE Asia • More than 140 million birds in Asia were killed to control the avian virus • Avian flu jumped the species barrier in 1997 and a virulent strain killed 30 people • The virus is spreading to other regions of the world

23. Avian Flu & Security • Concentration of animals in factory farms and genetic uniformity of livestock may have facilitated the emergence of the virus • Current recommendations to restrict free-range poultry could drive thousands of small producers out of business and eliminate traditional means of food production © FAO © USDA

24. Nipah virus Nipah is a zoonose – a disease that jumps from animals to humans • Nipah was first discovered in 1997 at a massive Malaysian pig farm • Origin of virus may have been fruit bats fleeing forest fires in Indonesia and settling in trees over large pig farms • 100 people died in Malaysia in 1997 and Nipah struck in Bangladesh in 2004 killing 74% of its victims © USDA

25. Nipah Virus Scientists predict that as industrial agriculture continues to move into tropical environments, the risk of Nipah-like viruses and other diseases that can jump the species barrier will grow. © USDA

26. Mad Cow Disease BSE (Bovine spongiform encephalopathy) or Mad Cow Disease is caused by prions that destroy proteins in brain tissue • BSE is spread by the recycling of animal protein and bone meal into livestock feed • Humans can contract Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease from eating infected meat • Many countries lack the necessary regulations and political will to prevent the disease © USDA

27. BSE & Security • Since 1986 BSE has been found in at least 34 countries • The first case of BSE in the U.S. was discovered in 2003 • In Italy a new form of BSE (BASE) appeared in cows showing no symptoms

28. HIV/AIDS • In 2004, nearly 78 million people were HIV infected • AIDS is the leading cause of death worldwide for people ages 15 to 49 Millions AIDS Deaths HIV Infections Source: UNAIDS

29. HIV/AIDS • The seven most seriously AIDS-affected countries—all in sub-Saharan Africa—now lose as much as 10-18 percent of their working-age adults every five years, mainly to this disease. • What does this mean for food security? • Loss of knowledge and skills in traditional farming systems • Loss of work force with no one available to plant, tend and harvest food

30. Foodborne illnesses Foodborne illnesses are the most common health problem worldwide • WHO reports episodes could be 300-350 time more frequent that reported What contributes to the spread of these illnesses?

31. Foodborne illnesses • Concentration of processing and transport • 44 million cattle, sheep and pigs are traded worldwide each year • Transport of cattle from feed yards to slaughterhouses increases prevalence of salmonella • Antibiotic misuse • Residues from antibiotics used on livestock end up in food and the environment leading to antibiotic resistance in humans and animals • Factory farms • Crowded and unsanitary conditions exacerbate rapid movement of diseases such as E. coli

32. Factory Farms Factory farms create a variety of problems • Contamination • Concentration • Cheap meat • 43% of global meat production occurs on factory farms • Factory farms are spreading to developing countries © D. Nierenberg © D. Nierenberg

33. Bioterror • Livestock industry • Transportation and movement • Processed food distribution • Lack of safety regulations • Global trade What could be targets for bioterrorists? © USDA © USDA

34. Bioterror • 1984 Oregon religious cult spiked restaurant salad bars with Salmonellae Has a bioterror attack already occurred in the US? © Stock.xchng

35. Climate Change Climate changes can impact temperatures, precipitation and weather events which can in turn impact: • Rainfall, drought, storms • Crop growth and yields • Irrigation demands • Pests and disease • Pollination © Digital Vision

36. Climate Change Average Change in Global Temperature Degrees Celsius

37. Climate Instability • Temperature instability and food production: • More extreme swings in climate are predicted—dry to wet, hot to cold • Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days • Higher minimum temperature and fewer cold days • More variable and extreme rainfall events, floods, and storms • Increased summer drying and associated risk of drought in continental interiors

38. Temperature Shifts

39. Temperature Shifts • Rice, wheat and maize • Grain yields are likely to decline 10% for every one degree (Celsius) increase over 30 years • Pollination • CO2 and increased temperature may promote lush growth but are deadly at the pollination stage reducing some yields by 30% • Disease • Warm wet weather promotes diseases like blight • Pests • Pests survive warmer winters and a longer growing seasons mean increased incidence of pest attacks

40. Developing Countries Climate change will hit farmers in developing countries the hardest • farmers in the tropics are already near the temperature limits for most major crops • these farmers have less money, more limited irrigation technology and no weather tracking systems • crop failures push many farmers off the land and into cities

41. Climate & Security • Climate change scenarios: • Anarchy as countries defend and secure dwindling food and water supplies • Warming and ice cap melting could disrupt oceanic heat transfer and plunge N. America and Europe into a mini-Ice Age • The sudden change in climate 8,200 years ago that brought widespread crop failure, famine, disease and mass migration of populations could be repeated

42. New Approaches • Focus on conceptual and political change in addition to technological fixes • International treaties such as: • Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources • Treaty on livestock breeds • International cooperation by health organizations • WHO and FAO programs that monitor diseases What can be done to cultivate food security?

43. Farmer’s Role • Support and train farmers to: • Maintain indigenous breeds • Preserve plant diversity • Use less energy and encourage self reliance for fertility inputs • Develop agroforestry and mixed crop plantings © FAO © FAO

44. Seed Saving • Today, 1.4 billion people rely on seed saving to continue farming, this has always been a matter of survival. The practice of selection by small scale farmers has created a vast diversity of varieties • Promote seed saving and gene banks © CGIAR © USDA © FAO

45. Gene Banks © Photos/USDA

46. Choices Farmers are not the only ones with a stake in a more secure food system The public needs to be committed to farms that can withstand climate change and new diseases and that yield food that is safe to eat

47. Worldwatch Institute Further information and references for the material in this presentation are available in the Worldwatch Institute’s publication “State of the World 2005” This presentation is based on Chapter 4 “Cultivating Food Security” authored by: Danielle Nierenberg and Brian Halweil www.worldwatch.org