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Model Uncertainty & Sensitivity Measures

Model Uncertainty & Sensitivity Measures. Terje Haukaas, Associate Professor Mojtaba Mahsuli , PhD Candidate. REC 2012, Brno, June 13-15. Vancouver. Source: “Earthquakes Canada”. 14 model types 4,389 model instances 281 random variables 8,097 response objects . Object-oriented

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Model Uncertainty & Sensitivity Measures

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  1. Model Uncertainty&Sensitivity Measures Terje Haukaas, Associate Professor MojtabaMahsuli, PhD Candidate REC 2012, Brno, June 13-15

  2. Vancouver

  3. Source: “Earthquakes Canada”

  4. 14 model types 4,389 model instances 281 random variables 8,097 response objects

  5. Object-oriented Library of models Random variable objects Design variable objects Response objects Interactive GUI FDM and DDM sensitivities Multi-hazard Free at www.inrisk.ubc.ca

  6. A generic model: “Aleatory” random variables

  7. A generic model: “Epistemic” random variables

  8. A generic model: Decision variables

  9. A generic model: Limit-state function: Result for each hazard: Translated into probability: Combination of hazards: Translated back into reliability index:

  10. Limit-state

  11. Objective Improve the quality of the risk analysis Idea Reduce epistemic uncertainty Question Which epistemic uncertainty to address? … identifies model instances to be prioritized in near-term refinement efforts … identifies model types to be prioritized in long-term research efforts

  12. Derivation of :

  13. Derivation of : !

  14. Another question Which uncertainty is largest; seismic or structural? A better way to ask that question Which uncertainty should be addressed; seismic or structural? Answer It is far more effective to reduce the epistemic uncertainty associated with structural performance

  15. Summary: Mechanics + Statistics Design Procedures Models + Methods Engineering = Design Analysis Decisions

  16. Thank You for Your Attention ICASP 12, Vancouver, Canada, 2015

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