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BANKIZATION OF RUSSIA AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. Liechtenstein July 2, 2007. Garegin Tosunyan. Commonwealth of Independent States on the World Map. CIS territory – 22,1 mln. sq. km . Population – 279,7 mln. inhabitants The territory of Liechtenstein –
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BANKIZATION OF RUSSIA AND ECONOMIC GROWTH Liechtenstein July 2, 2007 Garegin Tosunyan
Commonwealth of Independent States on the World Map CIS territory – 22,1 mln. sq. km. Population – 279,7 mln. inhabitants The territory of Liechtenstein – 0,00016mln. sq.km. (160 sq.km.) Population – 0.034 mln. inhabitants (34 thous.) Swiss territory – 0,041mln. sq.km. (41 thous. sq.km.) Population – 7.56 mln. inhabitants Population of CIS countries, mln. inh. • Russia – 142,8 • Ukraine – 46,7 • Uzbekistan – 26,3 • Kazakhstan – 15,2 • Belarus – 9,8 • Azerbaijan – 8,4 • Tajikistan – 6,9 • Turkmenistan – 6,7 • Kyrgyzstan – 5,1 • Georgia – 4,4 • Moldova – 3,9 • Armenia – 3,2 Territory of CIS countries, thous. sq. km .
Russian economy continues to develop Results of the Iquarterof 2007 (in % toIquarter of 2006) Real income of the population + 13 % Industrial production + 8,4 % Real wages + 18,4 % Investments in the fixed capital + 20,1 % 4,5 trln roubles GDP + 7,9 % Consumer prices + 3,4%* export+ 5,3 % USD 71 bln (the share of fuel and energy products makes 78%) Import + 36,8% USD42,4 bln Source: Ministry of Economy * Compared to December 2006.
«Hot Buttons» of the Banking System of Russia FALLING BEHIND terms of credits: credits for enterprises > 3 years in Russia – 28% in EU – 52% supportability: number of banking offices per 100 thous. inhabitants Russia<Austria4-fold <France 3-fold
Financing Economy Credits to enterprises by maturity RUSSIA EU • Share of long-term credits(> 1 yr) to the economy in the total volume of credits: • In Kazakhstan – 53% • In Ukraine – 67% • In Belarus – 70% • In Russia – 46% • In Austria – 70%(of which> 5 yrs – 57%)
Monetization of Economies Growing money supplydoes not hinder disinflation under sound monetary policy
Assets and Liabilities of the Central Bank of Russia EFFECTIVENESS OF INVESTMENTS Annual interest rate on foreign loans for Russian borrowers makes6 -10%
Sky-rocket of the Private Sector’s External Debt RF external debt as of 01.01.2007 –$309,7 bln.
RequiredReserves Throughout the World • NO RR in: • Canada • Great Britain • New Zealand • Sweden • Australia • …
Required Reserves Ratios in Russia • To expand the financing • of the Russian economy it is necessary to: • low down RR ratios • exclude time deposits from RR calculation
Bankization of Russia • BANKIZATION means: • Increasing capitalization • Reduction of interest rates • Protection of creditors’ rights • Availability of services • Resource base enlargement • Regional infrastructure development • Governance quality improvement • COMPETITIVENESS means: • “Saturation” with credit resources • High capitalization • Availability of Russian financial resources • Low interest rates • Geographical accessibility • Significant middle class • Low inflation
Ассоциация российских банков BANKIZATION OF RUSSIA = TO CREDIT, NOT TO DISTRIBUTE www.arb.ru arb@arb.ru +7495 2916630