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THE MARINE INDUSTRY: A LOOK AHEAD. Economic outlook: living with mixed signals. Macro issues will drive primary upside to forecasted growth … Economy growing – albeit slow Consumer returning – albeit slowly Real estate still struggling
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Economic outlook: living with mixed signals • Macro issues will drive primary upside to forecasted growth … • Economy growing – albeit slow • Consumer returning – albeit slowly • Real estate still struggling • Commodity pricing up – somewhat contained – slower growth helps • Gov’t spending – a worldwide headwind • Marine Market generally responds favorably to mixed signals … • Retail up in many segments – overall growth in sight • Channel stress has cleared – now very healthy • Retail liquidations and wholesale production remain aligned – potential shortages loom in some segments The Marine Industry:A Look Ahead
Positive Negative The “New” Normal…living with mixed signals • GDP Growth • Equity markets • Consumer spending • Field inventory levels • Increased production • Improved turns • Consumer confidence • Higher unemployment • Gas/Oil/Commodity $ • Mixed retail sales • Less dealer outlets v. brands • Affordability perception
Q3: Previous uptick in sentiment on U.S and global economies evaporates Consumer Confidence Credit Line Utilization Inventory Turns
Solid Q3 growth calms double dip fears Real GDP Q/Q SAAR & Annual percent change Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Consumption growth recovers from Q2 decline… Real personal consumption expenditures Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
But, spending patterns are uneven Real personal consumption expenditures, YoY change Annual Pace in Sept Services: $6.12T Non Durable: $2.08T Durable: $1.29T Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
CEO outlook on sales, employment, and investment declined in Q3 Capex growth historically strong, but likely to ease from high levels Corporate earnings up and cash at all-time highs Economic activity shows signs of life… increased optimism would help • Business investment strength continues • Manufacturing remains positive, but with regional variations • Gasoline prices ebb, for now • Euro-debt crisis solution… will it work, for how long? • U.S. political stalemate/fiscal challenges… will policy errors derail us? • Fundamentals slowly improving, but crisis resiliency still weak + • Consumers remain skittish • Confidence at recession levels • Employment growth below breakeven level… claims stuck near 400K • Housing prices remain soft due to foreclosure glut • Stock market decline/gyrations driving consumer caution – • Business confidence shaken, but fundamentals remain positive ? Bottom line: slow growth… no double dip
Market view of marine inventory • Wholesale shipments now aligned with retail activity (overall) • Lower field inventories provide opportunity for short-term wholesale ‘outperform’ • Retail sales in all segments find bottom in 2011- trending up • Consumers find ways to participate – and generally appear to be moving toward lower cost units • Age of existing fleet + scarcity of late model pre-owned can stimulate “new boat” retail growth in spite of macro headwinds The Marine Industry:A Look Ahead
Modest retail improvement suggests potential for boat inventory shortage The market at a glance… • Production adjustments compensated for reduced demand • Responsible production scale backs cleared the channel of product overhang New Boat Retail Activity v. New Boat Wholesale Shipments The Marine Industry:A Look Ahead Sources: GE Internal Wholesale Boat shipment data provided by NMMA MSR Retail Registration data provided by SSI
The distribution channel: What’s in the field The Marine Industry:A Look Ahead Field Inventory @ Historic Low Source: GE Internal
Some other positive signs… • Overall, wholesale shipments &Retail registrations up • Average consumer boat age: 21 years (up 5 years from 1997) • Personal income holding steady • Increased aging population (40+) may stimulate demand The Marine Industry:A Look Ahead
What do other OEMs think?GECA CFO study ofmid market manufacturers • Confidence down slightly, but still planning to invest and hire in spots • Rate optimism of their own company higher than globally • Global pessimism makes us cautious The Marine Industry:A Look Ahead
Key learnings:GECA CFO Survey Current / prospective business environment: • Previous uptick in US & global economic sentiment evaporates • Overall sentiment regarding own industries remains somewhat optimistic • Growth expectations fall for own industry and for broader economy • Budget deficit remains leading economic concern The Marine Industry:A Look Ahead
Key learnings:GECA CFO Survey Company performance outlook: • Lower expectations about company growth, 1-3 years • Lower expectation of profit margins, down from Q1’11 • Majority maintaining plans to grow cost structure in 2011 • 12-month comparison on new order pipelines remains positive • Fewer expect revenues to increase vs. Q1’11 • Majority raising prices in 2011 compared to 2010 The Marine Industry:A Look Ahead
Key learnings:GECA CFO Survey Capital market conditions & financing needs: • Additional financing needs most likely for equipment and working capital • Need for financing, cost of capital and availability in the next 12 months expected to be similar to those expected a year ago Key confidence indicators • Layoffs stabilized, small increase since Q1’11 • Hiring continues, cautiously • No change in CAPEX spending 2011 vs. 2010 The Marine Industry:A Look Ahead
Budget deficit and housing market top economic concerns Concerns about growth and stability of economy • The U.S. deficit remains an increasing area of economic concern • Oil prices are less of a concern compared to Q1’11 • Credit market liquidity still less of a concern compared to Q3’10 GECA CFO Survey Q6. From the list I am about to read to you, please tell me what concerns you most with regard to its potential impact on the growth and stability of the U.S. economy in 2011? Q6a. In your opinion, which of the following conditions do you think will contribute to higher interest rates?
GE Capital – Transforming our business ($ in billions) 4 1 2 3 2008 Today • Much more cash on hand $12 ~$90 • Significantly higher capital 5.7% 10.4% ++ • Increased Risk/Regulatory leadership • Smaller, more focused balance sheet $597 $440 Note: Cash, short term debt, ENI and non core assets as of 3Q’08
Committed to Main Street success… The Marine Industry:A Look Ahead
GE Capital, CDF Marine portfolio: High Quality • Staying committed through the down turn • Remaining open for business The Marine Industry:A Look Ahead 94.3% of orders in 2011 approved ~ $1.3B of Marine Wholesale credit availability exists today
Improving the customer experience: industry-wide changes that benefit dealers • Improvedcurtailment program of 2% at day 270 and monthly thereafter • No curtailments billed during off-season: November through February. • Enhanced Pre-owned advance rates • Flexible pre-sold programs • Commercial team re-aligned for better service • New Inside Sales team The Marine Industry:A Look Ahead Our Customers Spoke, We Listened.
Added tools for business building COMS for Dealers(2012) Business Intelligence The Marine Industry:A Look Ahead Exclusive Market Intelligence and Insights Access GE
Summary… • Choppy economy continues, but underlying strength in industry fundamentals: Inventory turn, inventory aging and improved customer financial strength • Most dealers have high level of available wholesale credit • Older boats now on the water + limited level of late model pre-owned product suggesting some potential for growth • Longer-term trends bode well based on demographics (larger number of boat-buying age consumers) The Marine Industry:A Look Ahead
GE Capital,Commercial Distribution Finance:Building Smart Growth, with Smart Capital • Supporting the Marine industry… committed to your success • Capitalize on market trends – gain “first mover” advantage • CDF will be there to help you The Marine Industry:A Look Ahead