Challenges for international agricultural research

1. Challenges for international agricultural research Sirkka Immonen 24 May, 2012 La Sapienza University

2. Structure of presentation International agricultural research: • Public research for development, the CGIAR • Demand-led research; forecasting future needs • Major challenges for agricultural research • Characteristics of research • Impact pathways • Results and impact

3. International Agricultural Research for Development • Institutions • Centers of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) • Others conduct international research with development aims: several universities, large national programs, such as French, Australian, Dutch, Brazilian • In partnership with: • National and regional research systems • Development agencies • Non governmental organizations

4. International Agricultural Research for Development • Research with a mission • Public research, addresses problems that • apply across borders • are public goods • national systems cannot address • private sector does not address • Examples: • plant breeding for tropical and poor regions • research on natural resources • research on livestock and pastures • research to support policy formulation

5. Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research System of Centers, their partners and donors Objectives (relevant for the Millennium Development Goals): • Reducing rural poverty • Increasing food security • Improvingnutritionand health • Sustainableuse of naturalresources Gender equality underlines objectives Photo by John Ocambo (CIAT)

6. CGIAR Research Centers IPGRI=Bioversity International

7. Research for development Responds to demand Funding: • Governments, foundations, private sector, development agencies Beneficiaries: • Developing countries: national research, farmers, consumers, rural and urban poor • International research community

8. What are CGIAR Centers good at? • High quality research for problems on the ground • Multidisciplinary research • Located in developing countries with a network of research locations • Bringing partners together from best universities and national programs in poorest countries • Honest brokers, generatesfree public goods • Holders of world’s largestgenetic resources collections Photo by Neil Palmer (CIAT)

9. How to decide what research? • International public goods • Can be used without exhausting them • Some one’s use is not away from another • Applicable across borders • Where there is comparative advantage • Universities do basic science • Private sector chooses market opportunities • National institutions have national interests • Where problems can be addressed through agricultural research

10. Forecasting future for agriculture World Agriculture Development report 2008 • Agriculture is a fundamental instrument for sustainable development and poverty reduction • In agriculture-based countries (Africa) agriculture is the basis for economic growth • Agriculture contributes to development; it provides (i) economic activity (ii) livelihood for ~86% of rural people (iii) environmental services • Heterogeneity defines the rural world • Issues: land, water, education, health

11. Characteristics of three country types Source: The World Bank, 2008 World Development Report

12. Forecasting future for agriculture UK government foresight report 2010 • Balancing future demand and supply sustainably • Ensuring that there is adequate stability in food prices • Achieving global access to food and ending hunger • Managing the contribution of the food system to the mitigation of climate change. • Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services while feeding the world

13. The difficult equations Estimated long term trends: • population increase (9 billion by 2050) • global food demand will double by 2050 • rural poverty increasing in SSA and South Asia (reduced in East Asia and Pacific) • competition for agricultural land (biofuels) • expansion is threatto biodiversity • agriculture has large environmentalfootprint

14. Major challenges for AR4D POVERTY • Poverty pockets in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia • Impact through better productivity of crops, animals, fish and forestry products, value chains • Impact through better market access, credit, inputs, and policies • In agricultural communities empowerment, risk management and innovation is needed • Income from agriculture for producers, land-less laborers and other groups

15. Major challenges for AR4D FOOD SECURITY • ~950 million people under nourished (2010) • 27-28 percent of children in developing countries underweight or stunted • Impact through more agricultural product of crops, animals and fish • Price fluctuations of agricultural commodities is a challenge • Locally diversity in agricultural enterprises and products buffers against shocks

16. Major challenges for AR4D HEALTH & NUTRITION • Calories • Micronutrient malnutrition • vitamin A, zinc, iron etc. • Empowerment of women • Access to nutritious diets • animal foods, pulses, fruits and vegetables • Children’s nutritional status • Biofortified staple foods Photo by E. Gotor (Bioversity International)

17. Major challenges for AR4D ENVIRONMETAL THREATS • Ecosystem changes due to dramatic increase in need for food, water, timber, fuel and fire wood • Agriculture competes for scarce water resources • Soil degradation and erosion, salinisation • Encroachment to new areas (wet lands, tropical forests) • Carbon emissions • Loss of biodiversity • Agrochemical use

18. Major challenges for AR4D RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY • Low national investments on agriculture, science and technology • Poor institutions (research, extension, education) • Insufficient national research capacity • High turn-over • Limited succession planning Photo AWARD Fellowships Program

19. Research capacity in developing countries Source: ASTI and: Chen, K. Z., and Y. Zhang. 2010.

20. Investment in agriculture R&D is low Total public agricultural R&D expenditures by region 1981 and 2000 (% GDP) Source: The World Bank; 2008 World Development Report

21. New opportunities New science and technology • life sciences (genomics) • geographic informationsystems • informatics and communicationtechnology New organization • multi-disciplinary and integrated research • innovation systems • participatory research • donor harmonization Photo by ICARDA

22. Characteristics of research • Research needs to discover new things and explore the unexplored • Research is risky and unpredictable • Unexpected results and failures are valuable • Needs to be transparent • Thrives from critique • Scientific discoveries lead to innovation and adaptation

23. Knowledge Flows in Agriculture Scientists (formal research) 1 National & State Research Systems 2 International Research Centers and System flow Local Activities Global Activities State National Regional International Global Knowledge flow Knowledge • 3 • National/State/Local • Extension Services • Non-governmental • organizations 4 International Private Voluntary Organizations* Farmers (indigenous knowledge, informal research) Source: Dana Dalrumple, USAID * Examples might include Oxfam, CARE, World Vision, Catholic Relief Services, etc. Notes: (1) The emphasis here is on the public sector, but various components of the private sector play similar — though not fully comparable—roles in each case. (2) It is assumed that there is considerable overlap between quadrants. DGD, draft, 11/12/02

24. Characteristics of ag research: Long lag times Outcome measured here reflects performance... Adoption rate back then! 0 30 On farm evaluation Upstream research conduct Release Time (years) Source: D. Raitzer, IRRI, 2011

25. Characteristics of ag research: Long and indirect causal chains(Adapted from D. Raitzer, IRRI, 2011) Development project 3-5 years, local impact Activity (building a bridge) Output (a bridge) Outcome (reduction in travel time from use of bridge) Impact (higher incomes from better market prices) Genetic improvement 20-30 years Activity (identification of a gene) Output (Markers) Outcome (use of markers by NARS) Output (NARS varieties) Outcome (national seed production) Outcome (farmer adoption) Outcome (reduced production risk) Outcome (intensified management) Impact (higher income for poor producers) Lower food prices for the poor Resource management research 10-20 years Lower food prices for the poor Activity (development of principles for SSNM) Outcome (NARS validation) Activity (development of decision support tools) Outcome (on farm testing by partners) Outcome (embodiment in mobile phone services) Outcome (changes to extension system policy) Output (recommendations for specific farms) Outcome (change in fertilizer management on farm) Outcome (higher fert use efficiency) Impact (higher income for poor producers)

26. Research monitoring on impact pathway Scale Priority assessment Program Studies that track the scaleof outcome Impact assessment (effect size * scale) Global Monitoring progress & performance Theme Product evaluation Impact evaluation studies that measure the effect size Pilot / Small Product Refined theory of change Time Output Outcome Impact Input Source: D. Raitzer, IRRI, 2011

27. Impact pathway–Aquatic agriculture systems Source: CGIAR Research Program 1.3 “Aquatic Agriculture Systems”

28. Strategic objectives Outputs Research outcomes Development outcomes Impacts Appropriate technologies Targeting R4D opportunities Research priority setting NARS use results for prioritization Less poverty Swift variety turn-over Germplasm, genes, methods Genetic resources & tools Germplasm etc used by breeders Farmers benefit from new cultivars Varieties, hybrid with desired traits Formal and informal sees systems Variety and hybrid development Increased food security Saving water and nutrients, reduced pest damage soil health Crop/pest mngt technologies Delivery of crop and pest mngt options Sustainable crop management Effective seed and input delivery Improved health and nutrition Opportunities to market value added products Improved knowledge flow among partners Accelerating adoption Value added products, processes Increased system resilience & sustainability Improved value chains, knowledge platforms Post harvest, market access Improved market access Value added products piloted Product design and demand Constraints for enhanced use Constraints for scale-out Enabling environment – institutions, policies, governance, infrastructure Impact pathway – Dryland cereal program Source: Adapted from CGIAR Research Program 3.6 “Dryland cereals”

29. Results from agricultural research Historic impact: Green Revolution Nobel Peace Prize 1970 to Normal Borlaug

30. Results from agricultural research Improved varieties (examples in Africa) • Cassava, fastest growing food staple in Africa • The New Rice for Africa (NERICA) • Beans, ~10 million farmers, mostly women, grow new bean varieties developed through participatory breeding Biological control of pests: • parasitic wasp to controlcassava mealy bug in Africa Soil management: • zero tillage (in LAC, Asia); legumes to improve soil fertility (Africa) Photo by FAO Regional Vegetable IPM Programme

31. Cases of successful research in CGIAR International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) • Research to confirm high and low amylase in cassava roots • Discovery of amylase-free mutant • Interest for industrial use of starch • Public-private partnership • Contract farming cassavaas cash crop • Income opportunitiesfor smallfarmers Photo by Thomas Sankara

32. Cases of successful research in CGIAR International Potato Institute • Research and breeding to increase Vit A content in sweetpotato (orange flesh) • Research to explore farmers willingness to pay for high quality planting materials • Incentives for privatevinemultipliers • Benefits to vine producers,crop producers • Health benefits to consumers Photo by ILRI

33. Cases of successful research in CGIAR International Rice Research Institute • Alternate wetting and drying technology • Research on AWD • water and nutrientinteractions • optimizing ADW scenarios • role of policies andinfrastructure • participatory testing, training • 15-30% irrigation water saved • Large scale diffusion of AWD Photo by IPSWAR

34. Cases of successful research in CGIAR Center for International Forestry Research • Research on forest certification for sustainable management • Criteria and indicators template with • principles and criteria on policy, ecology, social conditions, biodiversity and production • Adaptation to local contexts • 1999 10 million ha forests certified worldwide • 2006 79 million ha – most using the C&I standards

35. Cases of successful research in CGIAR World Agroforestry Center • Research for replenishing soil fertility • Tree fallows based on fast growing “fertilizer” trees • On-farm testing anddissemination • Benefits: • Improved food security(maize-based systems) • Better soil health • More fuel • Increased carbon sequestration Photo by World Agroforestry Center