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Brussels, AER, January 14 th 2008 Stéphane Peyhorgue, Environment Policy Officer. Climate Change & Energy EU policies. ESPACE INTERREGIONAL EUROPEEN. 1 – Climate change and Effects in Europe. Continuous Effects : (1850-2000) Temperatures increasing Sea level rise Snow cover reduction
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Brussels, AER, January 14th 2008 Stéphane Peyhorgue, Environment Policy Officer Climate Change & EnergyEU policies ESPACE INTERREGIONAL EUROPEEN
Continuous Effects : • (1850-2000) • Temperatures increasing • Sea level rise • Snow cover reduction • (Northern Hemisphere) Reference : IPCC 2007
Temperatures increasing.. Reference : IPCC
…a natural phenomena ? Reference : www.manicore.com
A phenomena due to Human activities !!(‘enhanced’ warming) Reference : GIRDA
Natural Greenhouse Reference : http://www.defipourlaterre.org/comprendre/climat/
Greenhouse gases (GHG) • Water vapor : 2/3 of the natural GH effect • Carbon dioxide (CO2) : the 1rst enhanced GHG • Methane (CH4): the 2nd enhanced (23 times CO2) • Nitrous oxide (N2O) (310 times CO2) • Fluorinated GH gases (HFCs, SF6, PFCs, …) (22.000 times CO2)
Modeling • Source : Hadley Centre
Modeling Improving resolution (1980 to 2007)Reference : IPCC
Temperatures increasing (2001=> 2100) ARPEGE model, Reference : CIERD
Effects in Europe • DATA : PESETA Project (FP6 Research Program) http://peseta.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ • Modeling : PRUDENCE http://prudence.dmi.dk/
Temperatures in winter : 3 models 2071- 2100 2010- 2040 2071- 2100 2071- 2100