2011 Water Quality & RA Compliance Update

1. 2011 Water Quality & RA Compliance Update Ed Sherwood Tampa Bay Estuary Program 100 Eighth Ave. SE St. Petersburg, FL 33701

2. TBEP Nitrogen Management Strategy Reduce Nitrogen Loads Reduce Chloro- phyll Sea- grass Recover Reduce Light Atten- uation 1998: NMC Partnership Formed to “Hold the Line” 1996-2009: NMC Projects Preclude >430t N / yr 2010: RA Accepted & Adopted by FDEP, N Load Allocations Voluntarily & Proactively Developed 2011+ : Demonstrating RA Compliance & Providing Input on Criteria Development 2012: RA Update! 2006: First-time All Segments Meet TBEP Management Targets

3. Adopted Compliance Assessment • NMC Action 1: Report attainment of bay segment specific chlorophyll-a thresholds to FDEP and EPA over the 2007-2011 period. • NMC Action 2: Report anomalous event(s) or data which influenced a chlorophyll-a exceedence over the 2007-2011 period to FDEP & EPA. • NMC Action 3: Consider re-evaluation of bay segment assimilative capacities. • NMC Action 4: Compile loading evaluations & identify potential further actions needed to achieve reasonable assurance for adopted bay segment allocations.

4. FDEP Recognized Site Specific Thresholds for Chlorophyll-a to Maintain Tampa Bay Reasonable Assurance • Hillsborough Bay: 15.0 ug/L • Old Tampa Bay: 9.3 ug/L • Middle Tampa Bay: 8.5 ug/L • Lower Tampa Bay: 5.1 ug/L

5. Chlorophyll-a

6. Bay Segment Chlorophyll-a Compliance 2007-2011 – 5 Year RA Compliance Period

7. Old Tampa Bay5-year Compliance Assessment

8. Hillsborough Bay5-year Compliance Assessment

9. Middle Tampa Bay5-year Compliance Assessment

10. Lower Tampa Bay & Remainder LTB5-year Compliance Assessment

11. Tampa Bay Chl-a (2007-2011) • Significant Pyrodinium blooms occurred in the summer of 2008, 2009 and 2011

12. 2010 Seagrass Estimates • All TB segments showed increased acreage • Upper bay segments still have room to “grow”

13. Bay Segment Seagrass Targets 8,360 acres 10,545 acres 1,045 acres 8,930 acres 38,000 acres 7,030 acres 1,663 acres 427 acres

14. Seagrass Acreages

15. Summary of Results • Water quality in Tampa Bay declined in 2011; however, it still appears to support seagrass expansion in the majority of the segments • Seagrass acreage in Tampa Bay continues to increase, next update anticipated at the end of 2012 • Targeted evaluation of appropriate management actions to undertake in Old Tampa Bay is ongoing

16. OTB Integrated Ecological Model http://www.swfwmd.state.fl.us/projects/old_tampa_bay/ • Initiated Fall 2011 • Model development anticipated in 2012 - mid 2013 • Management action scenario simulations Fall 2013 – Early 2014 • Final Report due June 2014

18. Additional Background Slides

19. 2009 RA Addendum • Consortium developed and agreed to limits on nitrogen loads for 189 sources in Sept. 2009 • FDEP approved full RA Plan in December 2010 • Annual compliance assessments

20. Management Framework • Bay segment annual average values compared to established bay segment targets for chlorophyll-a and light attenuation • Results of each comparison placed into decision matrix framework • Overall management response determined for each bay segment

21. Chlorophyll-a

22. Light Attenuation

23. 2011 Results *Small magnitude exceedence **Large magnitude exceedence

24. TBEP Nitrogen Management Strategy Reduce Nitrogen Loads Reduce Chloro- phyll Sea- grass Recover Reduce Light Atten- uation

26. 2008 & 2009 Chlorophyll-a Spatial Distribution

27. 2009 & 2010 Chlorophyll-a Spatial Distribution

28. 2010 & 2011 Chlorophyll-a Spatial Distribution

30. 2011 Chlorophyll-a Temporal Distribution

31. 2011 Kd (Light Attenuation) Temporal Distribution

32. Questions?

33. Observed Seagrass Gains & Losses 2001-2004 2004-2006

34. Observed Seagrass Gains & Losses 2006-2008 2008-2010