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SEMINÁRIO DE GEOPOLITICA DA ENERGIA SALA DA CONGREGAÇÃO DO IRI 14 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

SEMINÁRIO DE GEOPOLITICA DA ENERGIA SALA DA CONGREGAÇÃO DO IRI 14 DE AGOSTO DE 2014. Professor Ildo Sauer Graduate Program on Energy Director of the Institute of Energy and Environment University of Sao Paulo February 14 th , 2014. KEY ISSUES ON WORLD OIL STRATEGY :.

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SEMINÁRIO DE GEOPOLITICA DA ENERGIA SALA DA CONGREGAÇÃO DO IRI 14 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

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  1. SEMINÁRIO DE GEOPOLITICA DA ENERGIASALA DA CONGREGAÇÃO DO IRI14 DE AGOSTO DE 2014 Professor Ildo Sauer Graduate Program on Energy Director of the Institute of Energy and Environment University of Sao Paulo February 14th, 2014.

  2. KEY ISSUES ON WORLD OIL STRATEGY : • Energy appropriation essential roles in Humanity’s revolutions: • Agriculture “domesticated” photosynthesis via plants and animals; • Industrial revolution relied on tapping stocks: first coal, then oil… • Role of energy appropriation: enhance productivity of socially organized labor, hence allow for economic surplus or rent (well above average profits); • RESOURCE CONTROL AND RENT EXTRACTION: • 1960: OPEC founded to secure rent for producers: • Oil reserves control: 85% IOCs; 14% USSR; 1% NOCs; • 1973 and 1979 Oil Shocks failed • 2010: 6% IOCs; 6% Russians; 88% NOCs; • 2005 price escalation sustained; • 2013 Oil demand 85 MM bbl/d (±30 billions bbl/year); • surplus of US$ 2.5-3 trillion • Compare: World GDP of ±US$80 trillion (surplus ±10%, US$8 trillions) • OECD+CHINA x OPEC+RUSSIA strategic war on oil price and access Prof. Ildo Sauer - University of Sao Paulo

  3. 2010 NEW “SEVEN SISTERS”, Financial Times: • Saudi aramco (S. Arabia) JSC Gazprom (Russia) • CNPC (China) NIOC (Iran) • PDVSA (Venezuela) Petrobras (Brazil) • Petronas (Malasia) STRATEGIC DISPUTE: ACCESS TO RESOURCES AND RENT CAPTURE Source: AkerSolutions London Technology Day, Set/2010. Ildo Luís Sauer Universidade de São Paulo

  4. Intrinsicoilcharacteristics- thermodynamics: lowentropy, highavailabitity to produce work; • Oil net energy balance: 1:100 – 1:30 • ETHANOL (sugarcane): 1:8 • BIODIESEL 1:1 to 1:7 • Economicconsequences : cost US$1-15/barrel. • - Marketpricearound US$100. Surplus of US$85 – US100/bbl. • - Economicrent/surplus under dispute onallcamps(ideological, political, economical) amongStates and Companies. • WorldEconomicSystem : 30 billionsbbl/yr - rent US$ 2.5- 3 trillions/yr, onWorld GDP of US$80 trillions and surplus of est. US$8 trillions. Today:Coal; Future: Nuclear , Renewbles(?) Fonte: Agência Internacional de Energia “Resources to Reserves”, 2010 Fuente: Alvarez, 2000 Ildo Luís Sauer Universidade de São Paulo

  5. Oilpriceslast 30 yearsAverage WTI, Brent & Dubai Fateh Prof. Ildo Sauer - University of Sao Paulo

  6. Ildo Luís Sauer Universidade de São Paulo

  7. March 9th 2007 Prof. Ildo Sauer - University of Sao Paulo

  8. Brazilian Energy Sector Overview Prof. Ildo Sauer - University of Sao Paulo

  9. Brazil Area: 3,287,597 sq mi (5th in the world) Population: 201,032,714 (5th in the world) GDP (ppp): $2.523 trillion (7th economy in the world) GDP per capita (ppp): $ 12,528 (79th in the world) Primary Energy Consumption: 11.3 Quadrillion Btu (9th in the world) Primary Energy Consumption per capita: 57.7 Million Btu (109th in the world) Institute of Energy and Environment, University of São Paulo – IEE-USP Established Lab: 1901, Institute: 1941 Source: US EIA & Wikipedia, 2014. Prof. Ildo Sauer - University of Sao Paulo

  10. November 14th 2009 September 26th 2013 Prof. Ildo Sauer - University of Sao Paulo

  11. KEY ISSUES IN BRAZIL ENERGY SECTOR • PRE-SALT RESESERVES NOT QUANFIFIED, REGULATY MODEL STIL BEING QUESTIONED; • POLITICAL DISPUTE ON ECONOMIC RENT OF OIL AND HYDRO POWER SECTORS: • Shareholders, wantmarketpricesto improve profits; • Consumers, wantlowerprices, • People, owneroftheresourceaccordingtheConstitution, shouldextractrent for publiceducation, healthservices, housing, social priorities, etc. • However, Government, the “broker” hasimposedarbitraryillegalpricecontrolsandallowedoverpricedsupplycontractsfavoring its economicandpoliticalsupporters; • SEVERE IMPACTS ON BIOFUELS (ALWAYS DEPENDENT ON OIL PRICES, SUBSIDIES OR INCENTIVES): • EthanolProgrammunder stress, duetogasolinepricecontrol, lackof incentives andregulatoryinstability, arbitrary policies; • Biodiesel programfeasiblebutinviable; • POWER SECTOR UNDER THREAT OR RATIONING AND EXPLOSIVE SPOT PRICES: • Unsuficientandwrongoptionsfor capacityexpansion: oilandLNG firedinsteadof more hydro, wind, cogeneration (NG andbiomass), solar andefficiency . • 2013-2014, expectedtoburn 40 billions R$ (US$17 billions) in thermalpowerduetolowhydrologyandbadexpansionoptions. • PETROBRAS AND ELETROBRAS MARKET VALUE SUNK Prof. Ildo Sauer - University of Sao Paulo

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