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The Madden-Julian Oscillation and One to Two Week Atlantic Basin Hurricane Prediction

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and One to Two Week Atlantic Basin Hurricane Prediction Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Bahamas Weather Conference April 17, 2009. Outline. Sources of Week One Skill Sources of Week Two Skill.

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The Madden-Julian Oscillation and One to Two Week Atlantic Basin Hurricane Prediction

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  1. The Madden-Julian Oscillation and One to Two Week Atlantic Basin Hurricane Prediction Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Bahamas Weather Conference April 17, 2009

  2. Outline • Sources of Week One Skill • Sources of Week Two Skill

  3. Recently-Submitted Paper: “On the Madden-Julian Oscillation – Atlantic Hurricane Relationship” By Klotzbach, P. J., 2009. Submitted to Journal of Climate.

  4. MJO Propagation 200 mb Day 0 850 mb Indian Ocean Pacific Ocean Atlantic Ocean 200 mb Day 10 850 mb Indian Ocean Pacific Ocean Atlantic Ocean 200 mb Day 20 850 mb Indian Ocean Pacific Ocean Atlantic Ocean

  5. 200 mb Velocity Potential – MJO Relationship

  6. Phases 1+2 Phases 6+7

  7. Normalized Activity by MJO Phase (1974-2007)

  8. 36 Major Hurricanes 13 Major Hurricanes

  9. 10 Hurricane Landfalls 1 Hurricane Landfall MJO Phase 2 MJO Phase 7

  10. 52 Major Hurricanes 21 Major Hurricanes

  11. 89 Major Hurricanes 53 Major Hurricanes

  12. 10 Major Hurricanes 0 Major Hurricanes

  13. Percent of Total ACE Generated by Storms Forming in Each MJO Phase Atlantic East Pacific West Pacific North Indian 25.0% ATL WP 20.0% NI 15.0% EP Percentage 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 MJO Phase

  14. Tools for One to Two Week Prediction • Storms On The Map • NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks • Global Model Forecasts • Madden-Julian Oscillation

  15. Alfred E. Neuman Me Worry- WHY?

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