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The effects of the financial crisis at the local level in BiH April 2009

The effects of the financial crisis at the local level in BiH April 2009. Survey coverage: 16 municipalities. Topics covered. Profile of the municipality Impact of crisis on the local private sector Impact of crisis on the public sector Evidence of broader social impact

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The effects of the financial crisis at the local level in BiH April 2009

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  1. The effects of the financial crisis at the local level in BiH April 2009

  2. Survey coverage: 16 municipalities

  3. Topics covered • Profile of the municipality • Impact of crisis on the local private sector • Impact of crisis on the public sector • Evidence of broader social impact • Perception of longer-term opportunities in light of potential crisis • Degree to which municipal authorities are monitoring the economic and/or social impact

  4. Findings: Observation of private sector • Private sector slowdown (all); • Suspension or termination of employees recorded (most); • Wood and metal processing particularly badly affected; • Cessation of construction projects and lower demand for permits & capital loans(some); • Decreasing consumption (all);

  5. Findings: Observation of public sector • No job losses in the public sector; salary reductions and delays in 9 and expected during the year in 4; • Municipal budget reductions expected (10 to 30%); • Lack of sufficient resources for CSWs (all); • Role of remittances is perceived to be significant. Entity responses: • RS govt request to municipalities for programme of means to mitigate effects of crisis – initiative has been taken to develop economic strategy & will establish FDI unit • FBiH – ad hoc information sharing on impact among municipalities

  6. Findings: Social Impact • Some evidence of labour migrants returning • Particularly vulnerable; families with children, elderly, IDPs, collective centre residents • Increasing levels of vulnerability predicted due to less resources • Decrease in remittances assumed from decrease in consumption • Some evidence of increased social unrest, crime & discontent; linked with increasing domestic violence.

  7. Findings: Ability to assess crisis • Very little access to information to monitor social or economic changes • Generally not collecting data or utilising existing data • Some ad hoc attempts to assess through taxation data • Generally, information gathered = anecdotal • Tendency to link downturn to political problems in BiH rather than broader crisis • One municipality, however, has budget to develop programme to mitigate consequences of crisis

  8. Conclusions & Long-term opportunities • Despite presence of number of other industries in municipalities surveyed – agriculture seen as main area for future potential employment generation • Lack of strategic approaches to harnessing investment • Better skills to assess the situation clearly needed in municipal authorities

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