Hurricanes …no two are the same…

1. Hurricanes…no two are the same… Bill Read Director National Hurricane Center

3. Category 1 Within 75 miles

4. Category 2 Within 75 miles

5. Category 3 Within 75 miles

6. Category 4 Within 75 miles

7. Remember the Gulf Developers • 1932 – TS 180 miles south of GLS – Cat 4 at landfall less than 36h • 1943 , Alicia – both formed south of NOLA landfall less than 72h • Audrey June 1957 – Cat 4 less then 72h after forming • Anita (5), Celia (4), Camille (5) and Opal (4) all less then 96h

8. Category 2 MOM Galveston Basin Mostly barrier island and inland marsh inundation

9. While Surge is our most recent focus, let’s not forget wind Andrew Alicia

10. Potential wind threat from a Cat 4 at landfall 55-75 mph 75-90 mph 90 – 110 mph 110 – 125 mph >125 mph

11. Wind impacts Gusts range 130-150 mph (1.5 x sustained) Rita forecast 150 mph 1 min average winds at landfall.

12. Peak measured Gusts in Ike

13. The nightmare urban flood Houston - June 8-9, 2001 • Onset during Friday evening • About 2,000,000 folks experienced 10-15” rainfall in 6-12 hours • About 100,000 cars, 50,000 homes flooded • Loss of life (21) miraculously low considering scale of flooding

14. (Pre Katrina) Over 800 of the 1000 deaths in 2008 were due to rainwater flooding

16. Reason for large increase

18. What’s the real hazard? • We insist on living near the coast • Building codes less than even modest hurricane winds (consider: Ike top 3 loss list) • Land use tied to the 100 year event - Flood Insurance not “required” if outside 100 year. • People begin to forget within 5 years (IEM risk management)

19. …and each one has a unique history Thanks