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Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis Testing. Philo I Group 3. What is a Hypothesis?. a tentative assumption made in order to draw out and test its logical/analytic or empirical consequences. Problems. Roots of Hypotheses Typical setting for hypothesis formation Can be anything.

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Hypothesis Testing

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  1. Hypothesis Testing Philo I Group 3

  2. What is a Hypothesis? • a tentative assumption made in order to draw out and test its logical/analytic or empirical consequences

  3. Problems • Roots of Hypotheses • Typical setting for hypothesis formation • Can be anything

  4. Patterns of Hypothesis formation • Recognizing and stating the problem in the clearest way possible • Forming tentative hypotheses, the more the better • Gathering information in order to test the hypothesis • Acceptance or rejection of the hypothesis

  5. Guidelines in Hypothesis Testing • Urgency.Suppose you smell something burning in your house. Two hypotheses occurred to you either your house is on fire or your neighbor is burning trash. A man with a sense of urgency will test the first hypothesis first.

  6. Guidelines in Hypothesis Testing • Economy.If no hypothesis in the list is of a high priority, test that which is most economical first (less resources, time, energy)

  7. Guidelines in Hypothesis Testing • Bias.Bias is very difficult to control. Thus, when you have strong feelings about the hypothesis in your list, DO NOT test them first.

  8. Hypothesis Testing • Complete a conditional statement • in the form of an “if-then” statement • “ if “ + hypothesis + “ then ” + consequence • Test the proposed consequence • Experimentation, etc.

  9. Hypothesis Testing • Gathering information in order to test the hypothesis • Test the consequent by practicable procedures • Acceptance or rejection of the hypothesis • If experimentation shows the test implication to be false, hypothesis is discarded • Argument forms

  10. Argument forms • H -> T • ~T • ∴ ~H • If H is true, then so is T. Evidence shows that T is false. Therefore, H is false. The argument is now in modus tollens.

  11. Argument forms • H ►T • T • ∴ H • This favorable outcome does not prove the hypothesis to be true, because we know that the pattern of reasoning is fallacious - fallacy of affirming the consequent.

  12. Nature of Hypotheses • No accurate method of proving true hypothesis • Induction by confirmation– many cases where test condition is satisfied ► degree of probability confirmed • More confirmations; more confidence

  13. Nature of Hypotheses • One counterexamplewill prove hypothesis false. • Logic of scientific testing of hypothesis rests on a fallacy.

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