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Gdaly Rivin, Inna Rozinkina , Denis Blinov

COSMO Project CORSO : C onsolidation of O perational and R esearch results for the S ochi O lympics -2014 Status COSMO of 7 km and 2 km models in Russia. Gdaly Rivin, Inna Rozinkina , Denis Blinov Hydrometeorological centre of Russia (Roshydromet) and many of our colleagues.

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Gdaly Rivin, Inna Rozinkina , Denis Blinov

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  1. COSMO Project CORSO:Consolidation of Operational and Research results for the Sochi Olympics -2014Status COSMOof 7 km and 2 km models in Russia Gdaly Rivin, Inna Rozinkina , Denis Blinov Hydrometeorological centre of Russia (Roshydromet) and many of our colleagues WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  2. CONTENTS • PP CORSO • Place, grids, observations(D.Kiktev) • COSMO-Ru7, COSMO-Ru2,COSMO-Ru1 (M.Shatunova), COSMO-Ru13, Universiade (Kazan, July-August 2013) • Snow (E.Kazakova) 5. Data assimilation (D.Blinov) 6. Plans for Oct. 2013 / 2014 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  3. 1 PP CORSO WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  4. COSMO - METEOROLOGICAL SUPPORT FOR OLYMPICS “SOCHI-2014” COSMO Perspective Project CORSO: Consolidation of Operation and Research results for the Sochi Olympic Games The main goal: to enhance and demonstrate the capabilities of COSMO-based systems of short-range numerical weather prediction in winter conditions for mountainous terrain and to assess the effect of practical use of this information during SOCHI-2014 Olympic Games Participants: Germany, Italy, Switzerland and Russia. PP CORSO is considered as COSMO contribution into WMO project FROST WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  5. PP CORSO (Project Leaders: G.Rivin, I.Rozinkina (Roshydromet) TASK 1.High resolution COSMO-modeling for mountainous regions (TL G.Rivin) 1.1. Improvement of modeling technology of deterministic forecasting of weather conditions with resolution 2.2.km for the North-Caucasian area (SOCHI-2014) (FDP) 1.2. Development of COSMO-So-1km (RDP) TASK 2. Downscaling / postprocessing for Sochi area and applications (TL I.Rozinkina) 2.1. Adapted down-scaling techniques for winter conditions in the mountains and IOC requirements (FDP) 2.2. Determination of typical COSMO-model inaccuracies for typical synoptic situations (RDP) TASK 3. Development and adaptation of COSMO EPSs for Sochi region TLs E. Astakhova, A. Montani 3.1. Adaptation of COSMO LEPS 7 km to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics. Operational ensemble forecasts during the Trials and Olympics (FDP) 3.2. Development and verification of COSMO-RU-LEPS 2.2 km for the Sochi region (with ICs and BCs from SOCHMEL7) (RDP) WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  6. WG4: PP CORSO T1. High resolution Modeling and DAS WG1, WG2, WG3a, WG3b, WG6 Operational forecasts of meteorological fields Downscaling for venues and local specific weather conditions T2. Postprocessing / Forecast Interpretation WG4, WG5 T3. High resolution EPS WG5, WG7 Forecasts of probability of local weather events WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  7. CORSO - 18 staff members Roshydromet: 11 - PhD, 6 – postgraduates MSU and HMC, 1 - undergraduates MSU Task 1 High resolution COSMO-modeling for mountainous regions G.Rivin, Yu.Alferov, D.Blinov,M.Chumakov,E.Kazakova,A.Kirsanov, M.Nikitin, V.Perov, I. Rozinkina, M.Schatunova, E.Kukanova; Task 2 Downscaling / postprocessing for Sochi area and applications I. Rozinkina, D.Blinov,A.Bundel, E.Kazakova,V.Kopeikin,A.Muravjov, A.Revokatova,G.Rivin, M.Zaichenko; Task 3 Development and adaptation of COSMO EPS for Sochi region E.Astakhova, A. Montani,D.Alferov, G.Rivin. WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  8. PP CORSO All algorithms must be implemented very fast, based the previous experience of COSMO-countries (incl. know-how for mountain forecasting) WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  9. THE MAIN DIFFICULTIES OF THE PP CORSO • Complex geographical conditions: • sea - land winter T differences • high mountains near cost • the area of venues is located near boundary snow and/or fractional cover • Insufficient density of network of measurements • The significant part of winter weather processes is due by the local orography • The level of skill of forecasts for T2m and precipitation must be better • Computers WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  10. Forecast system COSMO-Ru7/2 • Daily  4 times (00, 06, 12, 18 h UTC): • prepares more than 8000  (total for 1 day) weather forecast maps and about 1000 (total for 1 day) meteograms (images) • sends these maps and meteograms to the weather forecasting offices of Roshydromet • spreads on a FTP-servers the GRIB and graphical files (about 70 Gb) WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  11. 2 PLACE, GRIDS, OBSERVATIONS (D. Kiktev later ) WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  12. Two clusters of «Sochi-2014» Olympic venues Krasnaya Polyana Sochi Snow sports competitions Adler Ice sports competitions WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  13. Grids COSMO-Ru7/Ru2 Krasnaya Polyana Sochi Akhun Adler WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  14. Location of the meteorological stations and COSMO-Ru2 (Sochi) model’s grid-points (mountain sector) (view from SW) Kordon Laura Aibga Krasnaya Polyana WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  15. 1945 1755 1130 980 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  16. 3 COSMO-Ru7, COSMO-Ru2, COSMO-Ru1 (M.Shatunova), COSMO-Ru13, Universiade WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  17. COSMO-Ru6, , Δt=60 s COSMO-Ru13, Δt=120 s COSMO-Ru2 x =2.2км COSMO-Ru7 x = 7 km GME x = 20 км Universiade Domain: 900 km * 1000 km Grid: 420*470 * 50 Step: 2.2км Time step:20c Forecast: 24 / 42 h Domain: 4900 km * 4340 km Grid: 700*620 * 40 Step: 7 km Time step: 66c Forecast: 78h GME: начальные и граничные данные COSMO-RuSibx =14 км Domain: 5000 km * 3500 km Grid: 360*250 * 40 Step: 14 km Time step: 80c Forecast: 78 h Grid: 1 474 562 * 60Step: 20 km Time step: 110 s WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  18. COSMO-Ru13x =13.2 km ETR Far East SIB Domain: 13200 km * 6600 km Grid: 1000*500 * 40 Step: 13.2 km Forecast: 120h Cores: 288 Domain: 13200 km * 6600 km Grid: 2000*1000 * 40 Step: 6.6 km Forecast: 48 / 78h Cores: 288 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  19. WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  20. WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  21. WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  22. WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  23. WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  24. Technological line of COSMO-Ru --06 000 2.50 03.40 Time DA Ru7 DA CFO- Ru2 DA SFO- Ru2 DA Ru13 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  25. 2013-08-26-00 COSMO-Ru2, Canada: GEM-2.5 andGEM-1 WMO project FROST (PL – Dmitry Kiktev):http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  26. RozaHutor (1580 m) 2013-08-26-00 COSMO-Ru2, Canada: GEM-2.5 andGEM-1 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  27. KrasnayaPolyana (Red Glade)2013-09-01-12 COSMO-Ru2, COSMO-Ru7 andWRF-NMMB-1 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  28. ENA-13 km WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  29. COSMO-Ru7 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  30. 01–28 Feb 2013: Ru7oper,PseaCOSMO-Ru7: SFO (Sochi-2014) RMSE: Средняя квадр. ошибка MAE: Средн. абс.ошибка ME: Средняя ошибка WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  31. 01–28 Feb 2013: Ru7oper,T2m COSMO-Ru7: SFO (Sochi-2014) RMSE: Средняя квадр. ошибка MAE: Средн. абс.ошибка ME: Средняя ошибка WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  32. 4 SNOW Kate (later) WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  33. 5 DATA ASSIMILATION Denis (later) WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  34. 6 PLANS WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  35. PP CORSO All algorithms must be implemented very fast, based the previous experience of COSMO-countries (incl. know-how for mountain forecasting) WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  36. FDP & RDP CORSO DELIVERABLES Increased skill of operational COSMO-Ru7 and COSMO-Ru2 for key meteorological parameters; Research technology COSMO-Ru1 with horizontal resolution ≈ 1km; Operational implementation of tools allowing the forecasting of local weather conditions in the venues, visualization support, guidelines for forecasters; Adapted postprocessing techniques for winter weather conditions in sub-tropical mountain conditions and satisfying the requirements of the winter Olympics; Recommendations for operational forecasters in using the high-resolution model output with special attention to possible model error spatial and temporal structures for different weather types; Programming tools for object-oriented and multi-scale verification of hydrodynamic mesoscale forecasts RDP: Developed weather types classification approaches, results of case studies for the Sochi2014 region; A COSMO-LEPS system with 7 km resolution adapted to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics (SOCHMEL7). Operational ensemble forecasts during the Olympics. Technology of presentation and interpretation of SOCHMEL7 results in operational mode; COSMO-RU-LEPS 2.2 km for the Sochi region (with ICs and BCs from SOCHMEL7. WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  37. Oct. 2013 / 2014 • to improve near-surface (first - T2m) forecasts: - TERRA development - DAS implementation - Snow-cover assimilation • to increase the model resolution (orographic effects) • to develop the statistical postprocessing with small training period • to develop the probabilistiс forecasting for significant weather phenomena WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

  38. COSMO Project CORSO:Consolidation of Operational and Research results for the Sochi Olympics -2014Status of 7 km and 2 km models in Russia Gdaly Rivin, Inna Rozinkina , Denis Blinov Hydrometeorological centre of Russia (Roshydromet) and many of our colleagues Thank you for your attention ! WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

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