Inflation and the Price Level

1. Inflation and the Price Level

2. The Monetary System • A monetary system establishes two different types of standardization in the economy • Unit of value—a common unit for measuring how much something is worth • Means of payment—things we can use as payment when we buy goods and services examples: dollar bills, personal checks, money orders, credit cards

3. History of Currency • In a barter economy, where there is no commonly accepted currency : cows, sheep, fish… • Commodity money (with intrinsic value) like precious metals: gold, silver • Paper currency • used to be backed by physical commodity • Now, we have ‘fiat’ money, i.e. a means of payment by government declaration. Legal tender – payment that cannot be refused in settlement of a debt denominated in the same currency by virtue of law.

4. Price Level and Inflation • Price level Average level of dollar prices in the economy • Index numbers • Series of numbers used to track the change of a variable over time: crime index, air pollution index • Most measures of the price level are reported in the form of an index Dow Jones Index, S&P 500, Consumer Price Index

5. Index Numbers • In general, an index number for any measure is calculated as

6. Index Numbers • Create index numbers Example: the number of traffic accidents in Youngstown, Ohio

7. The Consumer Price Index • An index of the cost, through time, of a fixed market basket of goods and services purchased by a typical household in some base period (1983). • The market basket does not include goods and services purchased by businesses, government, and foreigners, but include consumer goods and services currently produced in the U.S., used goods and imported goods.

8. From Price Index to Inflation Rate • Consumer Price Index is a measure of the price level in the economy • Changes in price index • Inflation when price level is rising • Deflation when price level is falling, or negative inflation

9. Calculate Inflation • The rate of inflation is the annual percentage change in the price level • Inflation in 2004 • (1.889 – 1.840) / 1.840 • = 0.027 = 2.7% • Inflation in Great Depression • Period of falling output and prices • Inflation rates are negative

10. Figure 1: The Rate of Inflation Using the Consumer Price Index, 1900-2008

11. Inflation, Nominal and Real Values • Important point • When we measure changes in macroeconomy, we usually care about purchasing power those dollars represent • Not about the number of dollars we are counting • Translate nominal values into real values using the formula

12. Inflation, Nominal and Real Values • Suppose that from December 2004 to December 2005, your nominal wage rises from $15 to $30 per hour • Are you better off? • Real wage formula is as follows

13. Production Workers’ Wages, 1960 - 2006

14. Inflation, Nominal and Real Values An example:

15. Redistributive Effect of Inflation • Inflation is not the cause behind the erosion of purchasing power, but just the mechanism • Inflation can redistribute purchasing power from one group to another

16. Redistributive Effect of Inflation • How does inflation redistribute real income? • Inflation hurts those who receive a fixed amount of payment specified in nominal terms Example: salary specified in a contract • Inflation benefits those who make a fixed amount of payment specified in nominal terms Examples: mortgage payment, car loan monthly payment

17. Expected vs. Unexpected Inflation • Over any period, percentage change in a real value (%Δ Real) is approximately equal to percentage change in associated nominal value (%Δ Nominal) minus the rate of inflation %ΔReal = %ΔNominal – Rate of Inflation • Real interest rate is the annual percentage increase in the purchasing power of financial assets • Real interest rate = nominal interest rate – inflation r = i -  • If inflation is fully anticipated, and if both parties take it into account, then inflation will not redistribute purchasing power • When inflation is not correctly anticipated, however, inflation does shift purchasing power from one group to another.

18. US Inflation and Interest Rates, 1960 - 2006

19. US Real Interest Rates, 1960 - 2006

20. Expected vs. Unexpected Inflation An example: Joe borrows $100 from Mike and promises to pay back the money plus interest in a year. Mike wants to charge a real return of 3%. Meanwhile, Mike expects the inflation rate to be 3% for the next year and Joe expects it to be 5%. So, Joe happily agrees to pay Mike 6% nominal interest rate. If the actual inflation rate is 4%, how will the purchasing power shift between Joe and Mike?

21. Positive and Negative Unexpected Inflation • Positive unexpected inflation • An inflation rate higher than expected harms those awaiting payment and benefits the payers • Negative unexpected inflation • An inflation rate lower than expected harms the payers and benefits those awaiting payment • Fisher effect is the tendency for nominal interest rates to be high when inflation is high and low when inflation is low