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ARECS: ADVANCING RENEWABLE ENERGY with CLIMATE SERVICES

ARECS: ADVANCING RENEWABLE ENERGY with CLIMATE SERVICES. Melanie Davis, Climate Services for Renewable Energy GEO European Project Workshop, 15 th April 2013, Barcelona. CLIMATE FORECASTING UNIT (CFU). ARECS : A dvancing R enewable E nergy with C limate S ervices.

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ARECS: ADVANCING RENEWABLE ENERGY with CLIMATE SERVICES

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  1. ARECS: ADVANCING RENEWABLE ENERGY with CLIMATE SERVICES Melanie Davis, Climate Services for Renewable Energy GEO European Project Workshop, 15th April 2013, Barcelona

  2. CLIMATE FORECASTING UNIT (CFU) ARECS: Advancing Renewable Energy with Climate Services Facilitate mid to long-term planning,investment, and innovation for the wind & solar energy sector. WHAT? Advance the availability, accuracy & usefulness of seasonal to decadal wind & solar forecasts. HOW? To understand &manage risks & opportunities of future wind & solar resource variability. WHY? M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)

  3. ARECS – Seasonal Forecasts Mid-term, operational decisions: Production forecasting; Energy transport, balance, trade, maintenance; Extreme events 3 mths 1 mth - Contingency plans - Early-warning systems ARECS - Assess “load schedule” - Mobilise resources - Prepare measures Image: Catherine Vaughan - Instruction to power plant manager, grid operator, investor M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)

  4. ARECS – Decadal Forecasts Long-term, strategic decisions: Energy Infrastructure planning (“Smart Grid”); Renewable Investment: site selection, portfolio; Policy making. Identifying areas that are most vulnerable to climate variability over seasonal to decadal timescales. M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)

  5. RESEARCH INITIATIVES European Climate Services R&D CLIMRUN:Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean region: Responding to User Needs EUPORIAS:EUropean Provision Of Regional Impact Assessment on a Seasonal-to-decadal timescale SPECS:Seasonal to decadal climate predictions for the improvement of European Climate Services Horizon 2020 EERA: European Energy Research Association ECOMS: European Climate Observations, Modelling and Services CLIMATE ENERGY National Climate Services R&D: ARECS: Advancing Renewable Energy with Climate Services

  6. GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES Funding tbc.(COST CLIMATE KIC, FP7) ARECS FP7: EUPORIAS FP7: SPECS GEO EN-01 • CL-01 M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)

  7. CLIMATE FORECASTING UNIT (CFU) ARECS OBJECTIVES 1. Identify the areas that are most vulnerable to seasonal variability. 2. Assess how the global forecast system can identify the areas in obj.1 3. Assess how well the global forecast system can reproduce the "observed" variable at specific times from global to local scales. M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)

  8. Forecast skill maps to assess the ability to predict wind resource variability Ensemble-mean correlation of 10m wind speed for ECMWF S4 - one month lead Winter (December, January, February) - start dates once a year on 1st November from 1981-2010 M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)

  9. CLIMATE FORECASTING UNIT (CFU) ARECS OBJECTIVES 1. Identify the areas that are most vulnerable to seasonal variability. 2. Assess how the global forecast system can identify the areas in obj.1 3. Assess how well the global forecast system can reproduce the "observed" variable at specific times from global to local scales. 4. Analyse the future impact of variable renewable energy generation on i) existing and new power networks and ii) energy investment. 5. Engage and communicate with end users to demonstrate the value of seasonal to decadal forecasts in renewable energy decision making. M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)

  10. Operational probabilistic forecasts to assess the risk of wind resource variability 3-month forecast 1-month forecast Probability forecasts of 10m wind speed from ECMWF S4 - one month lead Winter forecast (December, January, February) - start date on 1st November 2011 M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)

  11. Quantifying wind energy yields, uncertainty & value using energy & economic 'impact' models M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)

  12. ARECS END USERS M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)

  13. ARECS OUTCOMES - Optimisation in the efficiency of solar and wind energy operations - Harmonisation of resource forecast activities across all timescales and industries - Establishment of a basic approach to resource forecasting and communications for solar and wind energy - Stimulate new business opportunities in energy resource forecasting M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)

  14. Melanie Davis Climate Services for Renewable Energy melanie.davis@ic3.cat GEO European Project Workshop, 15th April 2013, Barcelona

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