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Making the Most from UKCS Exploration

Making the Most from UKCS Exploration. Simon Toole Director – Licensing, Exploration & Development. Prospex Fair 11/12 Dec 2007. UKCS Undiscovered Resource Potential Fallow Process Success Promote Licence Statistics Licensing and 25 th Round West of Shetland Task Force

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Making the Most from UKCS Exploration

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  1. Making the Most from UKCS Exploration Simon Toole Director – Licensing, Exploration & Development Prospex Fair 11/12 Dec 2007

  2. UKCS Undiscovered Resource Potential • Fallow Process Success • Promote Licence Statistics • Licensing and 25th Round • West of Shetland Task Force • BERR 2007 Promote CD • DEAL Data Release

  3. Creaming Curve Analysis Least Mature

  4. Potential Undiscovered UKCS Resources Level for BERR estimate Approx 9.4 bn boe - 3.4 WOS/S - 0.8 NNS - 4.5 CNS - 0.7 SNS

  5. 4.5 Basin Creaming Curves vs Lead Database 1.2 CNS 0.8 NNS 0.2 0.7 0.2 SNS & EIS Incl leads > 5% COS 3.4 Incl leads > 20% COS 0.3 (bn boe) WOS

  6. 9 bn UKCS Creaming Curve vs Lead Database ? 2 bn Incl leads > 5% COS Incl leads > 20% COS (bn boe)

  7. Status of 148 released blocks still under evaluation Activity is on the way – 43 subareas BR wells committed FDP in preparation BR plan in progressRelinquishment on the way – 52 subareas Relinquishments are being processed, BR Drop decision made Currently under discussion – 53 subareas Previously drilled but now fallow again or proposing rescue work plan or making rescue Drill or Drop decision

  8. Status of other 155 Fallow Discoveries(current, but some decisions to end 2007 still changing) Discovery too small – 19 (now just part of fallow block) Class A – 72 (Pre-development feasibility studies, Well or new seismic AFE'd Significant studies, Infrastructure full or none available) Class B – 52 Under discussion (mixture of newly identified and released on website) Fallow class BR - 12 Rescued with firm plan for activity

  9. Traditional Vs Promote Licences - Observations from 21, 22 & 23rd Rounds • Overall similar # licences drilled (21 Prom, 24 Trad). • Anticipated drill rate (full cycle 21st Round) – Trad 13/35 (37%), Prom 16/54 (30%). • As expected, # of Promote wells build later in licence (farm out required, need to shoot seismic). Associated rig & new seismic time pressure. • Quick cycling via tough Promote 2 year ‘continuation’ point – typically 40% go through based on ‘firm wells’ or ‘new seismic + contingent well’. • Overall Promote potentially commercial success rates: • Exploration wells ~ 30% • Appraisal wells ~ 70%

  10. 1 4 Licensing Strategy 7 • Annual Rounds • 25th Round early 2008 • Cumulative Acreage • Incl. SEA 7 • Focussed Terms • Traditional • Promote • Frontier 2 5 3 6 2 8

  11. WEST OF SHETLAND TASKFORCE http://www.og.dti.gov.uk/UKpromote/wos_task.htm

  12. West of Shetland Activity Area of high exploration activity potential Industry/Government TaskForce addressing gas infrastructure needs 30+ companies with interests in WOS Ca. 60 licences WOS

  13. 2007 Promote CD

  14. Promote CD Opportunities • 44 Leads & 5 Discoveries • Maps, Stratigraphic columns and Cross Sections • In Place and Reserve Estimates • Play summaries CD available at DTI stand

  15. Unlicensed Opportunities West of Britain North Sea

  16. Multiple Opportunities - 21/24 • 5 Leads: (Est Reserve Range) • A - 33-51-76 mmbo • B - 12-19-31 • C - 17-26-37 • D - 9-14-20 • E - 10-16-24 • 1 Discovery (21/24-4): • Untested 35 ft net reservoir • 17-27-41 mmbo

  17. West of Britain 214/1 One of the largest undrilled UKCS structures: High Risk with Potential reserves of 1.4 - 2 - 2.8 billion barrels

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