P²-ROTECT – Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats

1. P²-ROTECT – Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats Jeffrey Apeldoorn et al.

2. Overview of the Presentation

3. Context Project Project Consortium & Personal Introduction Protection Solutions against Space Debris Conclusions & Next Steps Contact details & Questions Overview of Presentation

4. Context Project 150 Million objects larger than 1 mm 6 Billion objects larger than 100 µm 600.000 objects larger than 1 cm

5. P²-ROTECT context Evolution of catalogued space debris (CSD) since 1957 (Source NASA) What can we do to improve space assets security from on-orbit collisions ? • Evaluate risk versus orbits • Investigate solutions (predict CSD, protect from USD, remove risky SD) • Recommend solutions versus orbits by evaluating risk reduction Uncatalogued space debris (USD) are only known via flux measurements. Their number is estimated to some billions.

6. P²-ROTECT = Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats Project within the EU‘s 7th Framework Programme in the activity “Strengthening of space foundations”. Project had its kick-off in February 2011 Total Budget ~3 Million Euro of which EU contributes ~2 Million Euro Total duration of 30 months To minimize the impact of the ever increasing threat of Space Debris, different strategies to enhance mission protection will be established by a European consortium composed in a multi-disciplinary manner, involving research organizations and academia, on the one side and industrial companies and SME on the other. P²-ROTECT General Info

7. P²-ROTECT objectives • Objective 1: Provide a quantitative tool to evaluate the vulnerability of space missions in relation to SD collisions. • Objective 2: Quantify the vulnerability of specific current space missions of interest for Europe. • Objective 3: Analyse core techniques to reduce space missions’ vulnerability (prediction, protection, removal), based on the analysis of the effects of on-orbit collisions (with both trackable and untrackable debris) while identifying mitigating solutions. • Objective 4: Propose recommendations for risk-minimising architectures leading to reduced vulnerability of space assets specific to mission types. • Objective 5: Quantify the vulnerability reduction for specific future space missions of interest for Europe using proposed recommendations. • Objective 6: Disseminate results towards space community and provide a cross-fertilisation of results with the ESA Space Situational Awareness Programme. Evaluate risk versus orbits Investigate solutions Recommend solutions versus orbits by evaluating risk reduction

8. P²-ROTECT Consortium & Personal Introduction

9. P²-ROTECT Consortium • Onera: Vulnerability evaluation, better prediction of collisions. • OHB-System AG: LEO/MEO/GEO missions knowledge, better protection, active debris removal for LEO. • TAS-I: LEO/MEO/GEO missions knowledge, better protection, active debris removal for MEO/GEO. • Tubitak: Better protection, missions operations, dissemination. • EMI: Physical component damage evaluation. • TUBS: Debris environment knowledge (MASTER model). • TELINT: Contribution to dissemination Research organisms, Academia, Industry & SME

10. OHB-System AG, Facts OHB-System AG, subsidiary of OHB AG OHB-System AG is a subsidiary of OHB AG The group total revenues in 2010 were 460 million Euro As of now, the OHB AG Group has approx. 2,250 employees (Year-end 2009: 1,550) OHB AG is listed as No. 3 in the European manufacturer market, and No. 8 among the overall European space markets (Source: Space News, August 3, 2009). OHB-System AG is the leading German satellite manufacturer in the launch mass range up to 800 kg in LEO and MEO, and for a launch mass of up to 3200 kg for GEO satellites. ESA has included OHB-System AG into the definition as “Large Systems Integrator” OHB-System AG is today the third satellite prime in Europe OHB-System’s headquarters at the Bremen Technology Park is home to 400 highly qualified engineers and scientists • Major contracts won recently include the Galileo project and Meteosat Third Generation (MTG)

11. Personal Introduction • Jeffrey Apeldoorn, M.Sc. • Born in the Netherlands, currently working in Germany • Studied Aerospace Engineering at Delft, University of Technology • Employer: since nov 2007 at OHB-System AG in Bremen, Germany (Largest German Space company) • in the Space System Studies Directorate (Phase 0/A/B) • ISU: SSP09 at NASA Ames and Class Representative • Project Manager in OHB for: • P²-ROTECT (EC project) • Scenario Studies for Human Spaceflight & Exploration (ESA project)

12. Which problems exist with space debris?

13. Two different problems exist Untrackable space debris Trackable space debris • Collision probability : high, depends on orbits, repeatedly • Collision severity : medium to high • Collision predictability : no • Collision probability : low, depends on orbits • Collision severity : catastrophic • Collision predictability : yes, but fuel consumption for manoeuvres

14. Possible solutions must be traded-off (1/3) Untrackable space debris Trackable space debris • Collision probability : high, depends on orbits, repeatedly • Collision severity : medium to high • Collision predictability : no • Collision probability : low, depends on orbits • Collision severity : catastrophic • Collision predictability : yes, but fuel consumption for manoeuvres Desired : one index to quantify the best solutions to reduce risk depending on missions.

15. Possible solutions must be traded-off (2/3) Environment situation Trackable debris + Space Surveillance Network knowledge Untrackable debris Physical damage to components over time Fuel consumption due to collision avoidance manœuvres over time Functional performance of components over time Functional performance of mission over time

16. Possible solutions must be traded-off (3/3) For one space mission Business As Usual environment situation Future environment situation Functional performance of mission over time Functional performance of mission over time - SEVERITY of performance degradation Vulnerability index

17. Protection solutions against Space Debris

18. Possible solutions to be investigated • Increase quality of prediction  Reduce useless manoeuvres • Increase protection  Reduce collision severity • Action on environment  Reduce collision probability

19. Increasequality of prediction • Increase quality of prediction  Reduce useless manoeuvres • Reduction of detection threshold for trackable objects • Increased prediction reliability • Increased prediction accuracy • Decreased prediction delay 600.000 objects larger than 1 cm

20. Increase protection (1/2) Increase protection  Reduce collision severity Improvement of spacecraft protection by innovative shielding: e.g. the multi layer solution for the ISS Improvement of spacecraft protection by enhanced redundancy and design: Building in more redundancy with vital components, re-locating vulnerable components to different areas of the satellite (Calculations with ESABASE2) Spacecraft self-protection: attitude control by S/C itself such that impacts have less impact

21. Increase protection (2/2) Increase protection  Reduce the risk of hits or even avoid them Fractionated mission design: divide the Mission functionality over multiple satellites (e.g. MTG) Improved mission operations: adaptation of the mission planning -> avoidance manoeuvres Maintenance and repair of satellites in orbit by a servicing mission

22. Testing of Shielding Methods • But how do we verify new innovative shielding methods? • By Hyper Velocity Impact tests!

23. Impact Simulations Impact Simulations The Ernst-Mach-Institute, EMI, is the Fraunhofer-Institute for high-speed dynamics. Hypervelocity impact research Space asset vulnerability modeling Shielding for manned space vehicles Impact detection payloads Accelerator research -> Now time for Videos……

24. Possible actions on environment Action on environment  Reduce collision probability By letting the spacecraft autonomously go into another orbit at their mission end. (End-of-Life Debris Mitigation Measures) Graveyard orbit De-orbit & (partly) burning up • Or, by removing the • End-of-Life satellites with a robotic Orbital Transfer Vehicle (Active de-orbiting or re-orbiting)

25. Conclusions & Next Steps

26. P²-ROTECT will provide recommendations for improving space mission survivability. Recommendations for improving space debris knowledge Recommendations for improving mission and spacecraft design (Case studies: Sentinel-1 in LEO, Galileo in MEO and MTG in GEO). Recommendations for improving mission planning Establishment of a Vulnerability Index creation Tool (ATLAS) to track influence of proposed design/mission changes Conclusions & Next Steps

27. Project Contact Details • P²-ROTECT Website: • http://www.p2rotect-fp7.eu/index.html

28. Contact Details Questions? Mr. Jeffrey Apeldoorn, M.Sc. OHB-System AG Tel: +49 (0)421 2020 9722 Fax: +49 (0)421 2020 700new email: Jeffrey.Apeldoorn@ohb-system.de