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Early mover JI projects. Jorund Buen Partner/Director, Point Carbon UNFCCC Technical Workshop on Joint Implementation 10 March 2006. Outline. Methodological issues Overview of JI activities so far Projects Forward transactions Assessment of impact of EU directives on JI.
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Early mover JI projects Jorund BuenPartner/Director, Point CarbonUNFCCC Technical Workshop on Joint Implementation10 March 2006
Outline • Methodological issues • Overview of JI activities so far • Projects • Forward transactions • Assessment of impact of EU directives on JI
How do we gather & check info? • Web searches: UNFCCC, hosts, investors, project developers, targeted general search • Mailinglists (climate-l etc) • Conference material etc • Regular contact with host & investor country DNAs, key third parties, project developers, exchanges, brokers, service providers • Interaction with high-end clients • Calling project proponents to check status
What is counted as a PDD? • Latest version available physically in Point Carbon’s database, or • A project that has met a set of authoritiative criteria of which a PDD forms part, and • Not cancelled • JI PDDs: Count pre-2008 AAUs
Sources of uncertainty: Examples • In the direction of underestimation: • Some players don’t share info on new projects or transactions • Some early movers might want see JISC rules before submitting • Volumes lacking for some early-stage projects • In the direction of overestimation: • Parties might not share info on cancelled/changed projects/transactions • EU ETS & double counting • Project proponents don’t risk-adjust their projects • Lack of capacity to monitor possible delays and cancellations
Country Landfill, 99/31/EC Combustion plants, IPPC, 94/61/EC 2001/80/EC Cyprus By April 2012 By 2007 By 2007 Czech Republic By April 2012 By 2007 By 2007 By 2014 Estonia By April 2012 By 2007 Hungary By April 2012 By 2007 By 2007 By 2012 By 2010 Latvia By 2007 By 2014 Lithuania By April 2012 By 2007 Malta By April 2012 By 2007 By 2007 Poland By 2020 By 2016 By 2010 By 2011 Slovak Republic By April 2012 By 2007 By 2011 Slovenia By April 2012 By 2007 By 2014 Bulgaria By April 2012 By 2007 Romania NA NA NA EU 15 By 2001/2009 By 2002/2007 By 1999/2007 EU directives & deadlines
Conclusions • Considerable early mover activity • Project development • Forward transactions • Buyers almost exclusively government & multilateral • Host countries: Romania, Bulgaria & EU25 • Russia, Ukraine (and Poland) emerging • Investor countries: Dutch domination, others absent • Large portion of early mover projects have been (pre)determined • Linking directive and other EU directives combined may reduce projected ERU volume considerably
Thank you Email: jb@pointcarbon.com Direct tel.: +47 932 83 350