How an Urbanizing Population is Affecting Change in China’s Real Estate Market

1. How an Urbanizing Population is Affecting Change in China’s Real Estate Market A view through the lens of 30 years of project work 17th Annual Fisher Center Real Estate Conference Anita Roth Senior Economist, AECOM Anita.roth@aecom.com @anitaroth12

2. 1 2 3 4 Introduction Facts & Figures Our Work Development Trends Overview

3. Cepolina.com Infoseekchina.com

4. Wildchina.com Thefakechina.com

5. NASA Earth Observatory Pearl River Delta (1979)

6. NASA Earth Observatory Pearl River Delta (2003)

7. China’s population is 4.3 times the size of the U.S.’s 1.4billion ~313 million China (2011) US (2012) Total Population (2011/12)

8. Population Growth Rate 1.47% China 0.84% 1.13% U.S. 0.52% Population Growth Rate

9. 1.4billion China (2011) China’s Population (2011)

10. >50% urban Compared with… (690 million) 26% In 1990 Urban Population

11. in urban areas >1 million 18% (240 million) Compared with… 45% (140 million) In the U.S. Urban Population

12. GDP Growth Rate 10.4% 3.8% China 3.0% 1.9% U.S. 8.2% Expected in 2012 GDP Growth Rate

13. $7.3 trillion (US$) China (2011) China’s nominal GDP is 48% that of the U.S.’s $15.1 trillion (US$) US (2011) GDP (nominal)

14. 12% (US$710 billion) Real Estate contribution to GDP Real Estate Market as % of GDP

15. 2 3 4 1 AECOM – Who we are AECOM

16. Building Engineering Architecture Water Design + Planning Environment Energy Program + Construction Mgmt. Government Services Transportation AECOM – Who we are

17. >30 years of working on projects in China 2 3 4 1 Working in China

18. >30 years of working on projects in China 15 years with offices in China 2 3 4 1 Working in China

19. >30 years of working on projects in China 15 years with offices in China 2 3 4 1 11 offices in China Working in China

20. >30 years of working on projects in China 15 years with offices in China 2 3 4 1 11 offices in China ~ 4,000 staff in China Working in China

21. AECOM’s Work in China

22. Economic Development Regulatory Political Main Drivers of Development

23. 6 major trends in AECOM’s project work in China* *Disclaimer: None of these trends are really TRUE!

24. Increase in urban infill projects Increase in tourism-oriented development Increased public sector involvement Increase in demand for economic services Increase in mixed use development Increase in client sophistication Notable Trends

25. 1 Suzhou Region, Jiangsu Province Increase in Urban Infill Projects

26. 2 Increase in Public Sector Involvement

27. 3 Increase in Mixed Use

28. 4 Increase in Client Sophistication

29. 游客市场分析 5 • 接待过夜游客人数 • 过夜外国人游客 Increase in Demand for Economic Services

30. 6 Increase in Tourism-oriented Development

31. Increase in urban infill projects Increase in tourism-oriented development Increased public sector involvement Increase in demand for economic services Increase in mixed use development Increase in client sophistication Notable Trends

32. Is there a Real Estate Bubble?

34. 谢谢 Thank you! Anita Roth Senior Economist, AECOM Anita.roth@aecom.com @anitaroth12

35. $8,382(US$) China (2011) China’s Per capita GDP (PPP) is 17% that of the U.S.’s $48,386 (US$) US (2011) GDP per Capita (PPP)