METHODOLOGY

1. How local farmers read the weather: Mitigating climate change and variability in the Okavango Delta, Botswana Oluwatoyin Dare Kolawole, Barbara Ngwenya, Gagoitseope Mmopelwa,Piotr Wolski, Olekae Thakadu Okavango Research Institute, University of Botswana Private Bag 285, Maun, Botswana FORECASTING INTRODUCTION Condition Indicator Drought/ Trees & flowering/fruiting Heavy rainspatterns Galaxy (disposition & star constellation) Wind movement/directions Insects, birds & arthropods Stream and lagoons flow patterns (drying & wetting) Specific grass species Extreme temperatures Livestock behaviour Heat Strong whirlwinds Changes in Early/delayed rainfall Season Flooding Fires High frequency of peat fires gasses Prah (1978) and Cooke (1978) documented different ways in which local communities historically adapted to climate variability in Botswana. Responding to drought in the Boteti area in Botswana and Limpopo River basin meant shifting farming from rain-fed upland fields to river-bottom fields where soil water table is higher than in the upland area (Dube & Sekhwela, 2008). Interestingly, traditional African cultures partly comprise of an institution of “rainmakers” – people who would not as much cause rain, but predict, or forecast it (Gewald, 2002). That forecasting was based on skillful and arcane art of observing the nature: timing or flowering of plants, hatching of insects, arrival of migratory birds. There is evidence that the indigenous method of forecasting is as accurate as the modern scientific approach, and possibly accepted with more credibility than modern forecasts (Onyango, 2009; Ouma, 2009). Nonetheless, modernization is now perceived as contributing to the erosion of local knowledge systems of community people. Somewhat linked to this is that Africa’s smallholder farmers are now being overwhelmed by the current scenario of climate change and variability. The study addresses the questions of how local farmers mitigate climate change and variability in Botswana; how small farmers access scientific information on seasonal weather forecast; whether or not science should be complimentary or supplementary to indigenous seasonal weather forecast. Gender Household Size RESULTS Figure 2: A pie chart showing farmers’ distribution by their sex Figure 3: A bar graph showing the percentage distribution of household size Sources of Scientific Weather Forecast Information MITIGATION • Crop planting by type & variety influenced by level of expected rainfall & other environmental factors • Planting of late maturing crops like Sorghum (Mapindi) & beans (Dimowa) during seasons of heavy rains • Planting of early maturing crops like Sorghum (Pende) & beans (Ngwai) during the seasons of little rainfall • Cropping pattern alterations to suit planting season • Consultations with Dingaka(herbalists), native experts in weather reading and elders on appropriate farming strategies. OBJECTIVES • Analyze the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of farmers in the Okavango Delta of Botswana; • Identify and analyse how they negotiate scientific weather information; • Analyze farmers’ knowledge of weather forecasting and how they mitigate climate variability; • Analyze farmers’ perception about the nature of local and scientific weather knowledge; and • Analyze how farmers produce local knowledge in weather forecasting STUDY AREA CONCLUSION Figure 4: Percentage distribution of farmers by how they receive scientific weather forecast Generally, local farmers relied on cumulative years of interaction with their immediate environment to generate weather knowledge. Demographic and other factors had significant correlation with the respondents’ perception about the nature of both local and scientific weather information. While it is acknowledged that the identified factors are crucial for policies and decision-making in weather information dissemination, more attention needs to be given to the yearnings of farmers to work closely with scientists in the production of weather forecasting knowledge. Figure 5: The Kgosi (chief) at Etsha 13 community shares his local knowledge in weather forecasting with the Weatherman START research team Figure 6: A community elder shares his local knowledge in weather forecasting with the Weatherman START research team in Jao village REFERENCES Figure 1: A map showing the distribution of riparian communities and water channels in the Okavango Delta as well as the communities studied Correlation analysis showing the relationship between farmers’ attributes and their perception about the nature of local and western knowledge in weather forecasting Cooke, H K. (1978). The problem of drought in Botswana Proceedings of the Symposium on Drought in Botswana, National Museum, Gaborone. June 5th – 8th Clark University Press/Botswana Society, 7 – 19. CSO (2011). The 2011 Botswana Population and Housing Census, Central Statistics Office, Preliminary Results Brief Gaborone, Ministry of Finance and Development, 29 September. Dube, O.P and Sekhwela, M. B. M. (2008). Indigenous knowledge, institutions and practices of coping with variable climate in the Limpopo Basin of Botswana, In Leary, N., Burton, I., Adejun, J., Barros, V., Rodel, L. (eds.) Climate change and adaptation. London: Earthscan, pp. 71-89. Gewald, J. (2002). El Negro, el Nino, witchcraft and the absence of rain, Pula: Botswana Journal of African studies 16(1), 37-51. Onyango, M. (2009). Kenya rainmakers called to the rescue to combat climate change, The Daily Tribune, 22 September, pp. 1-3, On-line document: http://www.tribuneonline.org/commentary/20090922com6.html (Accessed 11 November 2010). Ouma, G. (2009). Linking traditional and modern forecasting in western Kenya, Stories from the field, On-line document: http://idrc.org/minga/ev-148990-201-1-DO_TOPIC.html (Accessed 11 November 2010). Prah, K.K., (1978). Some sociological aspects of drought, In M T Hinchey (ed.) Proceedings of the symposium on drought in Botswana, National Museum, Gaborone. June 5th – 8th Clark University Press/Botswana Society, 87-90. VanderPost, C. (2009). Molapo farming in the Okavango Delta. Fact Sheet 7/2009. Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre, University of Botswana. Accessed on-line: http://www.orc.ub.bw/downloads/FS7_molapo_v1.pdf (16 September 2010). SAMPLING: Multi-stage sampling procedure INSTRUMENTATION: Close and open ended questionnaire SAMPLE: Household heads & Key informants METHODOLOGY ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We would like to thank START and the US National Foundation of Science for awarding us the 2011Grants for Global Environmental Change Research in Africa. E-mail: tkolawole@ori.ub.bw; toyin_kolawole@yahoo.com Tel.: +267 681 7248 Source: Field survey, 2011-2012 Note: Values significant at *p ≤ 0.10; **p ≤ 0.05; ***p ≤ 0.01 Source: Field survey, 2011-2012; CSO, 2011