環境制約からみた 21 世紀の科学文明と生活

1. 環境制約からみた21世紀の科学文明と生活 国際連合大学・東京大学 安井　至 http://www.yasuienv.net 　で本資料を配布中です。

2. Contents • Introduction • What is the Keyword? = Sustainability • Definition of Sustainability • How to Measure Development? • Transitions in Environment, Japanese Case • Analysis for Transitions in Environment • Environmental Kuznets Curve • CO2 Emission • Energy Use • EcoPremiumA New Life Style • Conclusions

3. Definition of “Sustainability” • Two Kinds of Definitions • UN Brundtland Type • Corporate Social Responsibility Type

4. Brundtland Type Definition • "Sustainable Development is Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. It is not a fixed state of harmony, but rather a process of change in which the exploitation of resources, the direction of investments, the orientation of technological development, and institutional change are made consistent with future as well as present needs." (Brundtland Report 1987)

5. Green & Sustainability; Different Views Economic Aspects Social Aspects Resource Factor Resource Consumption Human Health Overcome Poverty Fairness&Justice Limitation of Earth Ecological Impact Case for Japan Eco-System Factor Human Equity

6. Sustainability Triple Bottom Line Start Point Social Aspects Economic Aspects Environmental Aspects

7. Transition of Society from Non Sustainable to Sustainable Social Aspects Economic Aspects Social Aspects Economic Aspects Environmental Aspects Environmental Aspects

8. International Framework forSustainable DevelopmentGoals and Targets

9. Millennium Development Goals • The Millennium Development Goals are an ambitious agenda for reducing poverty and improving lives that world leaders agreed on at the Millennium Summit in September 2000. For each goal one or more targets have been set, most for 2015, using 1990 as a benchmark:

10. 8 Goals in MDG • 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger • 2. Achieve universal primary education • 3. Promote gender equality and empower women • 4. Reduce child mortality • 5. Improve maternal health • 6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases • 7. Ensure environmental sustainability • 8. Develop a global partnership for development

11. 18 Targets and 48 IndicatorsGoal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability • Target 9: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources • 25. Proportion of land area covered by forest • 26. Land area protected to maintain biological diversity • 27. GDP per unit of energy use (as proxy for energy efficiency) • 28. Carbon dioxide emissions (per capita) • [Plus two figures of global atmospheric pollution: ozone depletion and the accumulation of global warming gases]

12. How to Measure Development? • Economical Development? • GDP and Others • Economy Related Other Indicators? • Such as Energy Use per Capita • Human Development? • By UNDP

13. Human Development • "The basic purpose of development is to enlarge people's choices. In principle, these choices can be infinite and can change over time. People often value achievements that do not show up at all, or not immediately, in income or growth figures: greater access to knowledge, better nutrition and health services, more secure livelihoods, security against crime and physical violence, satisfying leisure hours, political and cultural freedoms and sense of participation in community activities. The objective of development is to create an enabling environment for people to enjoy long, healthy and creative lives." • Mahbub ul Haq

14. How Can We Measure HD? • What is the human development index (HDI) developed by UNDP?The HDI – human development index – is a summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in three basic aspects of human development: longevity, knowledge, and a decent standardof living. • Longevity is measured by life expectancy at birth; knowledge is measured by a combination of the adult literacy rate and the combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio; and standard of living by GDP per capita (PPP US$).

15. WSSD Plan of Implementation in Johannesburg 2002 • Poverty eradication • Changing unsustainable patterns of consumption and production • Protection and managing the natural resource base of economic and social development • Sustainable development in a globalizing world • Health and sustainable development

16. Changing unsustainable patterns of consumption and production • All countries should promote sustainable consumption and production patterns, with the developed countries taking the lead…… • Encourage and promote the development of a 10 -year framework of programmes……. • Develop production and consumption policies to improve the products and services provided, while reducing environmental and health impacts, using, where appropriate, science-based approaches, such as life-cycle analysis…..

17. Changing unsustainable patterns of consumption and production • Enhance corporate environmental and social responsibility and accountability……. • Prevent and minimize waste and maximize reuse, recycling and use of environmentally friendly alternative materials……. • Promote an integrated approach to policy -making at the national, regional and local levels for transport services and systems…Eco-friendly Cars… • Sound management of chemicals throughout their life cycle and of hazardous wastes……..

18. Transitions in Environment Japanese Case

19. MinamataDisease • Minamata disease is the name given to mercury toxicosis (poisoning) that developed in people who ate contaminated seafood taken from Minamata Bay and adjacent coastal waters. Methyl mercury was dumped into the sea as an unwanted by-product of acetaldehyde processing at the Chisso Company Limited industrial plant in Minamata from 1931 to 1966. • As of 31 March 1993, the official government tally of confirmed victims was 2,255 (both living and dead) with 2,376 others who are still seeking to be classified as victims. The number of persons refused certification has climbed to 12,503. The actual total of victims is undoubtedly larger than the official figures because an unknown number of people died from the disease without certification or chose not to apply for certification.

20. Minamata on the Mend • The Ministry of Environment finally declared Minamata Bay safe in 1997, after a ¥48.5 billion ($394 million)-effort to dredge or contain in landfill the mercury accumulated at the bottom of the bay (1983). • Now, drawing on its experience of suffering and recovery, Minamata is spreading a message to developing countries, particularly in Asia, not to repeat Japan's mistake.

21. Dioxin & POPs Environmental Problems and Time Constants in Japan Air Pollution EDC Problem Depletion of Ozone Layer Water & Sea Pollution Soil & Sediment Pollution Resource & Energy Consumption Global Warming 197020002050

22. Air Pollution NOx concentration • 1980 1990 2000

23. % of Points for Measurement where concentration exceeded the environmental standard limits Pb CN 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Cd As PCB Cr

24. Years of Life Lost by Daily Risks by WHO

25. Infant Mortality Rates and Foetal Death Rates in Japan/Tokyo from 1899 to 1998 200/1000 3/1000

26. Risk Ranking for Chemicals in Loss of Life (days) Smoking all Smoking Lung Cancer Passive Smoking Diesel SPM Passive Smoking LC 単位：日 Radon Formaldehyde Dioxin Cadmium Arsenic Toluene

27. Emission of Dioxin and Related Chemicals to Environmet

28. Change of Dioxin Conc. in Mother Milk

29. Transition of Life Expectancy at Birth in Japan Women Men

30. GDP vs. Life Expectancy

31. GDP vs. Life Expectancy

33. Analysis for Transitions in Environment • Environmental Kuznets Curves • SOx is a typical environmental pollutant to fit the Kuznets Curve.

34. GDP per capita　ｖｓ．　SOx Concentration Environmental Kuznets Curve after Prof. SIMON KUZNETS

35. Then how about other emissions and use of resources ? • (1) Energy Use • (2) CO2 • (3) Waste and Material Use

37. Costa Rica

38. Costa Rica

39. Japanese Target Costa Rica

40. A Scenario for Oil Production

41. Newly Found and Production of Oil

42. Long Term Trend of Oil Consumption

43. Then how about other emissions and use of resources ? • (1) Energy Use • (2) CO2 • (3) Waste and Material Use

44. Scenario by IPCC. B1 is the Target? Emission B1

45. Increase in Temperature B1

46. Total CO2 Emission(Global) Now JAPAN 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

47. Value A Trend Model for Environment Load in Japan Japanese Model Now Energy Consumption, CO2 Emission Environment Load Target 1970 Pollution, General Economical Scale, such as GDP

48. 　　　各種のプレミアム Premium • ブランドプレミアム Brand Premium • 同じような製品でもメーカーが違うため価値が高い • 超小型プレミアム Ultra Small-size Premium • 超小型にすることで価値が高い • 使いここちプレミアム Comfortable Premium • 使い心地に気を配って価値が高い • 長寿命プレミアム Long-Life Premium • 寿命が長く、修理が利くために価値が高い • 手作りプレミアム Hand-made Premium • 手作りのために価値が高い • エコプレミアム Eco-Premium • 製品の環境負荷が低いために価値が高い

49. エコプレミアムEco-Premium • 資源・エネルギー生産性の高い商品 • Resource Productivity, Energy Productivity • 環境汚染は良好にマネージメント • 複数プレミアムの組み合わせが必要か • 例えば、 • ブランドプレミアム＝手工業的プレミアム • 長寿命プレミアム＝寿命の長さで高い価値を • エコプレミアム＝環境負荷の低さで価値を

50. 結局のところは、５０年間で In less than 50 years, we must fulfill the goal, ＜エネルギー生産性の向上＞ エネルギー生産性４倍＝技術的効率（２倍）×需要変化（２倍） ＜資源生産性の向上＞ 資源生産性　８倍＝　２倍　　　×　　　２倍　　×　　　２倍　　機能長寿命化需要変化循環利用 Energy Productivity x4 = Technology (x2) x Life Style(x2) Resource Productivity x8 = Long Life (x2) x Life Style(x2) x Recycle Tech.etc., (x2)