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EL IMPACTO SOCIAL, ECONOMICO Y CULTURAL DE LAS TELECOMUNICACIONES INALAMBRICAS

EL IMPACTO SOCIAL, ECONOMICO Y CULTURAL DE LAS TELECOMUNICACIONES INALAMBRICAS. Salvador Hanono Wireless Sales. Agenda. Tendencias del Mercado Inalámbrico Telecomunicaciones Inalambricas- Evolucion e Impacto La participación de Nortel en el cambio Conclusiones. Mercado Inalámbrico.

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EL IMPACTO SOCIAL, ECONOMICO Y CULTURAL DE LAS TELECOMUNICACIONES INALAMBRICAS

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  1. EL IMPACTO SOCIAL, ECONOMICO Y CULTURAL DE LAS TELECOMUNICACIONES INALAMBRICAS Salvador Hanono Wireless Sales

  2. Agenda • Tendencias del Mercado Inalámbrico • Telecomunicaciones Inalambricas- Evolucion e Impacto • La participación de Nortel en el cambio • Conclusiones

  3. Mercado Inalámbrico

  4. Y después de 5 mil años… … Regresamos a la movilidad

  5. Tendencias del Mercado de Telecomunicaciones No Subscriber Growth Subscriber Growth Voice & Data Traffic Growth Voice & Data Traffic Growth Telefonía Fija Telefonía inalámbrica Usuarios 2004 Broadband 2.8B Fixed Mobile EMC, Yankee, RHK Las fronteras se están perdiendo Technology Transition – VoIP/Mutimedia Technology Transition – Multimedia/3G

  6. Dinámicas de la Industria Movil 3G / Broadband & Subscriber Growth 9.0% 12% 24% 40% China alone: ~20% 5.8% 9.5% Number of commercial 3G networks in operation worldwide • Mercado dinámico • 1.57 B de usuarios globalmente • +23M / mes • 5 Mercados con más crecimiento: • China: +4M / mes • Russia: +2M / mes • India & U.S.: +1.5M / mes • Brazil: +1M / mes W-CDMA EV-DO 04 2002 03 Source: Deutsche Bank Source: EMC

  7. Man. & Test Margin Customisation Packaging 350 Design Software 300 IPR Battery etc 250 Warranty Multimedia 200 Distribution Basic Modem 150 100 50 0 3G High End 3G Low End 2G High End 2G Low End 2G/3G Average Selling Price ($) GSM Average Selling Price($) 300 250 200 150 ASP ($) 100 50 0 1995 1999 2002 2005 2007

  8. La Era Interactiva - Conocimiento • Hoy, la economía esta basada en la información • El acceso abre la puerto para una economía basada en la información: • Promoviendo desarrollo social y económico • Llegando a ser un Servicio de valor agregado • Evolucionando las redes de telecomunicaciones • Redes fijas • Redes inalámbricas • Rápido crecimiento de banda ancha con facilidades de cobertura a zonas rurales.

  9. GSM/UMTS Operator Voice ARPU* NA WE CALA Asia CEE Global Voice ARPUs 2004-09 ($) 60,00 50,00 40,00 $ 30,00 20,00 10,00 0,00 2004A 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E *ARPU: Average Revenue Per User Voice ARPUs will remain stable over the next 5 years in GSM/UMTS Source: Pyramid Research 1Q 05

  10. GSM/UMTS Operator Data ARPUData ARPU Evolution 2000-2009 - Pyramid Data as a % of Total ARPU* 45% 40% 35% North America 30% Western Europe 25% Data % 20% Japan 15% Korea 10% 5% 0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 *Note1: SMS revenues are excluded in data ARPU Note 2: Voice ARPUs in this period remain generally flat Significant Data ARPU growth expected in all Regions

  11. Telecomunicaciones Inalámbricas – Evolucion e Impactos

  12. La nueva era de las comunicaciones US Broadband Penetration US Broadband Subscribers and Net Additions, By Service Provider, Q3 2004 Subscribers at End of 3Q 2004 Net Ads in 3Q 2004 MOBILITY • La primera linea es inalámbrica. ONLINE • Las comunicaciones son Web-based BROADBAND • Mas ancho de banda para nuevos servicios Source: Leightman Research Group, Inc. (LRG), November 2004 Note: * Bright House Networks and RCN subscriber counts are estimates; ** Adelphia subscriber counts do not include properties owned by the Rigas family

  13. CDMA & UMTS Technology Timeline 1xEV-DV Rel E Multi Carrier DV FL PDR : 10+ Mbps RL PDR : 1.8 Mbps 1xEV-DO - 0 (1.25 MHz) 1xRTT (1.25 MHz) 1xEV-D0 - A (1.25 MHz) 1xEV-D0 - B (1.25 MHz) FL PDR: 153.6 kbps RL PDR: 153.6 kbps FL PDR : 2.4 Mbps RL PDR : 153.6 kbps FL PDR : 3.1 Mbps RL PDR : 1.8 Mbps FL PDR : 10+ Mbps RL PDR : 1.8 Mbps Platinum Multicast (May be OFDM) BCMCS + MIMO ?? CDMA Evolution 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 GSM/UMTS Evolution MIMO … GPRS EDGE GERAN DL PDR : 40 Mbps UL PDR : 10 Mbps Net sync. SAIC PFC, NACC DL PDR : 50 kbps UL PDR : 21 kbps DL PDR : 236 kbps UL PDR : 118 kbps HSDPA+ HSUPA UMTS HSDPA OFDM DL PDR : 384 kbps UL PDR : 64 kbps DL PDR : 3.7 Mbps UL PDR : 300 kbps DL PDR : 14 Mbps UL PDR : 4 Mbps DL PDR : 20 Mbps UL PDR : 5 Mbps Robust & Mature Technologies with Clear Evolution

  14. Creating Value That Produces Margin Hi High Bandwidth 1xEV-DO 'Strike Zone' Medium Bandwidth Low Bandwidth Future: Mobile Interactive Multimedia Traffic information Tourist information Voice Stock quotes secondary applications Music on demand GSM/WAP Portals Electronic wallet Job dispatch Directory listings Games on demand Mobile chat Field Force automation Lotteries/Gambling Mobility Unified messaging SMS 2-way video General news Auction (place bid) Travel/Ticket bookings Auction (view image) E-mail with attachment Fleet Management Video on demand Mobile Office Event booking Purchasing / shopping Telemetry (measurement) Banking Telemetry (surveillance) Bandwidth Lo Hi

  15. VOD (Video on Demand) Mobile Cinema News Broadcast Live Traffic Video Adults Music On Demand Karaoke Online Game (e.g. Tetris Competition) NATE Access Game Category Select Tetris Select Level Select Partner Compete Aplicaciones Rich multimedia content provided with streaming and download

  16. La generación del Dedo Gordo... La generación SMS: • Más fácil decir “Te quiero” • Propio lenguaje: • qdt 1 rato + • Económico SMS es 20% de los ingresos de operadores en Europa

  17. Servicios personalizados Padres en casa Jovenes VIDEO CALLING • Integrated PC Communications • Common Contacts Lists and Call Logs • Call Screening • One Voice Mailbox • Integrated PC Communications • Multi-Party Conferencing Solteros Empleados con hijos • One Voice Mailbox • Call Screening • One Phone Number • Wireless / Wireline Converged Services • Call Screening • One Phone Number Casados sin hijos Abuelos • Wireless / Wireline Converged Services • Integrated PC Communications • Integrated PC Communications Nueva forma de atender a los clientes Source: Pollara Inc. Research Commissioned by Nortel

  18. Ejemplos de tarifas en USA ILECs MSOs IXCs VoIP • Bell South – Value Answers • Choice of calling features • $54.99 w unlimited local and domestic LD • PSTN Service • Traditional phones • Comcast – Connections Any Distance • No included features • $48.95/mo w unlimited local & domestic LD • PSTN Quality • Traditional phones • MCI – Neighborhood Complete • Call Waiting, Caller ID, Call Waiting ID, Speed Dial 8, Three-Way Calling • $54.99/mo local & LD • PSTN Service • Traditional phones • AT&T – CallVantage • Voice Mail • Caller ID • Call Waiting • Call Forwarding • …and more • $34.99/mo w unlimited local and domestic LD • VoIP over Broadband • Traditional phones • SBC – All Distance Connections • CallNotes Plus, Caller ID, Call Waiting, Call Waiting ID, Three-Way Calling, Inline Wire Maintenance • $48.95 w unlimited local and domestic LD • PSTN Service • Traditional phones • Cox – Unlimited Connection • No included features • Connections Any distance $48.75/mo w unlimited local & domestic LD • PSTN Quality • Traditional phones Wireless • Vonage • ATA for existing phone • Class features • Voice mail • Virtual phone numbers • Bundles Local, LD, & features over Internet • Residential – • $29.99/mo • Traditional phones over high speed Internet • SprintPCS • Free and Clear • Unlimited Nights and Weekends • $40 w 500 local and domestic LD • Verizon – Freedom • Voice Mail, Caller ID, Call Waiting, Speed Dialing 8, Three Way Calling • $59.95/mo w unlimited local • & domestic LD • Traditional phones • Additional taxes/fees may apply to packages listed • Source: Company websites

  19. Repercusiones…….. • Impacto a la vida personal • Impacto Economico

  20. El Fenomeno de la……CONVERGENCIA

  21. 3GPP2 StandardsAll IP Core Network Evolution Circuit Core Optimizing by Packetizing Voice Transport (P-MSC) All IP Core Packet Core Optimizing by Standardizing Services Framework (MMD) Path to an optimized Converged Core Network

  22. Take Advantage of P-MSC Distributed Architecture OPEX and CAPEX Reduction Transcoder Optimization (TO) Voice Quality Improvements Today’s TDM Network High Infrastructure Costs & High Transport Costs MGW MGW MGW MGW MGW MGW MGW PSTN1 PSTN 4 PSTN 4 PSTN1 Packet Network MSCServer Region 4 MSCServer Region 1 64kbps MSC MSC EVRC < 64 kbps 64kbps MSC MSC 64kbps Region 2 Region 3 64kbps MSC MSC MSC PSTN3 PSTN3 PSTN2 PSTN2

  23. GSM/CDMA y WiFi RoamingNúmero único a través de SIP. Usuario convergente • Hace/recibe llamadas desde diferentes dispositivos • Mismo número • Misma cuenta WCS Cell # 444-1234 GSM/CDMA WMN WiFi SIP # 444-1234

  24. La participación de Nortel en el cambio

  25. Broadband Market Segments 802.16e Nomadic 802.16e Mobility 3GPP/2 4G? VoIP, MoIP, Collaboration, Specialize Apps. Sales Force Automation Email, VoIP, Multimedia over IP (MoIP), VPN Email, VoIP, MoIP, VPN, Collaboration Specialized Apps 802.16d 802.11n HSDPAHSUPA EV-DO Rev A NG –DSL / DLC FTTx / PONS F-OFDM 1xEV-DO UMTS Throughput 802.11 a/b/g Broadcast, Video Mail, Video On Demand, Real-time Interactive Classes 1X, EDGE Broadcast TV/Movies, Fashion, Video Mail GPRS, Mobile Circuit Switch Cable Modem Real-time Interactive Gaming, Video On Demand ADSL You can use high bandwidth application and services everywhere ! 2007/8 2004-2006 Rollout Existing Enterprise Professionals Enterprise Broadband Telecommuters Fixed Nomadic High Mobility Distance Learners ConsumersBroadband Residential Broadband

  26. CDMA Data Networks in Operation

  27. Nortel deployment Source: Qualcomm & Nortel

  28. Nortel presence in the world 136 GSM/GPRS/UMTS customers in 77 countries • 111 GSM networks • 100 BSS Radio Networks • 90 Voice Core Networks • 10 GSM-R Networks • 81 Networks supporting GPRS • 61 BSS Radio Networks • 63 Packet Core Networks • 10 EDGE Radio Networks • 24 WCDMA networks • 13 UTRAN • 20 Packet Core Networks • 8 Voice Core Networks • 17 networks in Commercial launch Source: Nortel

  29. Nortel GSM GPRS GSM-R Presence 2004 • NORTH AMERICA • CanadaMicrocell • USACingular • TMO • AWS • Motorola • WesternWireless • Dobson • EdgeWireless • CincinattiBell • CellularOne AmarilloCGKC&H • EasterbrookCellular • EndlessMountain • Pine Cellular • TMPOnelink • West Virginia Wireless • Farmer Wireless • UnionTelephone • TritonPCS • ENMRPlateau • Highland Cellular • AdvantageCellular • XIT • NPI • Great Lakesof Iowa • West CentralWireless • Conestoga • Blu sky • Poka Lambro • Caprok • Corr Wireless • Cross Wireless • CALA • ParaguayCopesa • Antigua Apua • West IndiesC&W • CaribbeanAWS • British islandsCCT • CuracaoCT • ArubaSetar • TrinidadTSTT • SurinameTelesur • GuatemalaSercom • UruguayAncel • Bolivia Nuevatel • BahamasBaTelCo • Puerto RicoCingular • BrazilClaro • GuyanaTWTCGT&T • WESTERNEUROPE • BelgiumOrange • Iceland Og Vodafone • Austria Mobilkom • Ireland O2 • France Orange • Bouygues • SNCF • UKO2 • TMO • WCML • Network Rail • GermanyO2 • TMO • DB • Italy SIRTI • NetherlandsOrange • Turkey Aycell • SpainRenfe • EAST. & CENTRAL EUROPE • PolandCentertel • Slovakia Orange • SZR • Hungary TMO • Romania MobiFon • Russia BaykalWestcom • Smarts • MaltaGo Mobile • Czech Rep.TMO • Czech Railways • GREATER CHINA • China CMCC (7) CUTC (9) • Qingai-Tibet • TaiwanChunghwa T. • HKSunday • AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST • Burkina-FasoOnatel • BurundiTelecel • CARTelecel • ZambiaTelecel • MauritaniaMattel • Ivory CoastComstar • ASIA PACIFIC • AustraliaOptus Telstra • IndiaBPL • Nepal NTC • PakistanPTML • Papua N.G. PMC • GSM • GPRS Core • GSM R 108 networks in 50 countries

  30. “La red WiFi más grande del mundo” Ciudad de Taipei, Taiwan M-City • Distribuida a través de toda la ciudad • Transporte público, edificios públicos y educativos. • Red operada por Qware. • Descripción de la red: • 10,000 wireless mesh access points • An area of 272 square kilometers where 90 percent of Taipei's 2.65 million people live • Aplicaciones principales: • Comunicación entre edificios. • Web browsing • Video streaming • Video surveillance con Camaras WiFi • Comunicaciones Multimedia. • Mobilidad Outdoor • Comunicaciones con PDS, WiFi Phone o PC. • Compromiso con la visión M-City. • Press Release http://www.nortelnetworks.com/corporate/news/newsreleases/2004d/11_17_04_taipei_city.html

  31. Service Enablers Networks/ Technologies Devices Clients El nuevo ecosistema Application Developers System Integration HSS Call Session Controller Billing Mediation Programmable Server GLMS PoC IM/Chat MCS 5200 App Server Capacidades únicas y asociaciones claves para suministrar nuevos servicios

  32. Conclusiones Las tecnologías inalámbricas están: • Modificando nuestro comportamiento, debemos adaptarnos al cambio rápidamente. • Creando nuevas oportunidades de negocios, especialmente en el desarrollo de aplicaciones. • Nortel es parte del liderazgo tecnológico necesario.

  33. Muchísimas Gracias……..!!!!!

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