Planning for Agriculture and Food Winnipeg July 14, 2008

1. Implications of Climate Change for Food Production Planning for adaptation and adaptive capacity Planning for Agriculture and Food Winnipeg July 14, 2008

2. Four Key Points to Make Relevant to Planning 4. Don’t forget the mitigation + adaptation nexus 1. Specific Adaptations 2. Capacity of people to adapt 3. Capacity of plans and policies to adapt [Government of Canada 2007]

3. Palliser’s Triangle In 1860 Captain John Palliser, British North American Exploring Expedition, warned that disaster would befall those who tried to settle the region.

4. Drought: A long history of bad experience • 1906; • 1936-38 (quarter million people displaced); • 1961; • 1976-77; • 1980; • 1984-85; • 1988; • 2001-2003 (“the worst ever?” $3.6 B Ag /$5.8 B GDP/ 41 000 jobs lost

5. Weather Stresses cited by Manitoba Farmers

6. Precipitation Variability(1960-2002)

7. Spatial Distribution of Temperature Increases Surface Source: IPCC, 2007

8. Projected surface temperature change ( C) Source: IPCC, 2007

9. Climate Change on the Prairies

10. Impacts on Agriculture • Benefits: • warmer and longer growing seasons and a warmer winter • Increasing temperature will be positive for crop growth and yield, up to certain thresholds. • Negative impacts: • from changes in timing of precipitation • Increased risk of droughts and associated pests • Increased risk of excessive moisture

11. Planning for Adaptation

12. Coping and Adaptation Responses of Farmers Interviewed - Manitoba • Employ a standard farm practice • Alter a farm cycle for no longer than one season • Access outside help from within the agricultural sector • Wait it out. • Work longer or do extra work. • Make crop insurance claims. • Work with the weather • Use technological advances. • Increase buffering capacity • Reduce seeding or other inputs. • Alter a farm cycle for more than one season. • Use local associations and support networks.

13. Example Adaptations Relevant to Land Use Planning • Reduced Tillage • Increase soil moisture and decreased erosion, while also reducing input costs. • Also beneficial in wetter times, such as by allowing travel on soggy land. • Important to ensure responsible use of herbicides to prevent negative long-term impacts • Land Drainage • Properly maintained drainage infrastructure can increase short and medium-term capacity to cope with heavy rainfall and excess moisture. • However, long-term adaptation is better enabled by investing in changes that mimic the natural landscape (e.g., managed wetlands, constructing prairie potholes) to act to retain water in times of drought and regulate water in wetter periods.

14. Planning for Mitigation + Adaptation IISD 2004

15. A Generalized Vulnerability FrameworkV = f(Exposure, Adaptive Capacity)Smit and Pilifosova (2003) Vulnerability Exposure Adaptive Capacity

16. Adaptive Capacity Economic Resources Technology Information, skills and management Infrastructure Equity Institutions and Networks Soil resource Enterprise Information Management Water access technology Social capital (via Informal networks) Income generation Relative to capital investment Employment opportunities Surface water resource Soil resource Management practices Computer technology Email use Income generation Relative to summary expenses Access to health And social services Groundwater resource Environmental Management practices Technological flexibility Internet use Off-farm earnings Distribution of Income in general population Transportation network Experience and wisdom Technological exposure Access to agri Education institutions Diversity of Employment opportunities Distribution of Income in the Agri. population Data Sources 2001 Census of Agriculture, 2001 Census of Population, 2005 Statistics Canada report on …

18. Important are … • The capacity of people to adapt; AND • The capacity of plans and policies to adapt

19. From the Summary: “When situations are characterized by variability, uncertainty and change, conventional planning scenarios provide little guidance regarding future needs and conditions.” “…clear need for frameworks that are "adaptive" - that reflect uncertainties and can respond and adapt as contexts change or unforeseen problems emerge.” “Specific solutions are less important than the existence of processes and frameworks that enable solutions to be identified and implemented as specific constraints and contexts change.”

20. framework for adaptive policies Adaptive Policy Ability of policy to adapt to unanticipated conditions Ability of policy to adapt to anticipated conditions (based on a good understanding of cause and effect) (based on a good understanding of system dynamics and complexity) Self-organization & Social Networks Formal Review & Improvement Multi-perspective Analysis Automatic Adjustment Encourage interaction and initiative to foster innovative responses Regular review; pilot testing; experimentation to perform in a range of anticipated scenarios Monitoring to trigger policy adjustments Variation Multi-perspective Deliberation Decentralization Multiple interventions; diversity and risk spreading Matching scales of ecosystems and governance To accurately inform policy design and recognize emerging issues

21. Summary of Four Key Points for Planning 4. Don’t forget the mitigation + adaptation nexus 1. Specific Adaptations 2. Capacity of people to adapt 3. Capacity of plans and policies to adapt